2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz

Thursday, February 22, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 3–1@UTA 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	114	115	+1
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	124	107	−17

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1297	1478
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+252
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.7	−2.7
Games played this season	54	56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.0	119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.2	127.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.8	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1297UTA1478

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1297

Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
First 44 games: −147.8
Last 10 games: +28.5

LNYK92–113−3.9
LCHI110–117−4.6
L@OKC106–126−1.8
LIND99–115−5.8
LLAL118–124−3.7
LTOR117–123−5.0
L@MIL84–120−3.9
WMEM115–106+13.8
WIND111–102+18.1
WATL122–99+25.3

UTA1478

Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
First 46 games: +101.3
Last 10 games: −57.9

W@CHA134–122+5.0
L@BKN114–147−25.8
L@NYK103–118−5.3
LPHI124–127−6.3
WMIL123–108+14.5
WOKC124–117+9.9
L@PHX115–129−7.7
LGSW107–129−19.7
LLAL122–138−17.2
LGSW137–140−5.3

Season scoring marginCHA−10.7UTA−2.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−10.7

Scores 108.6, allows 119.4 over 54 games: −10.7 a game.

UTA−2.7

Scores 118.0, allows 120.7 over 56 games: −2.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA109.0UTA119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

CHA109.0scored, −6.2 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	54.9%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	11.5%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.7%	24.3%	−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.202	−1.3
Everything else			−0.7

UTA119.4scored, +4.1 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.9%	+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.5%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.8%	24.3%	+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.202	+0.2
Everything else			+0.9

Defensive rating, last 10CHA116.2UTA127.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

CHA116.2allowed, +1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.9%	−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	11.5%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	24.3%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.202	+0.7
Everything else			+1.4

UTA127.2allowed, +11.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.9%	54.9%	−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	8.6%	11.5%	−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	24.3%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.174	0.202	+0.8
Everything else			−1.6

Pace, last 10average 99.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 98.5 and UTA 100.5 → average 99.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA9.8UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA9.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nick Smith Jr.	6.5	16.1	8
Leaky Black	3.3	18.6	7

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-22 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA5 daysUTA5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA5days

Last played Feb 14 against ATL (8 days, capped at 5).

UTA5days

Last played Feb 15 against GSW (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 14	ATL	122–99	44-89	15-37	19-20	12	12	124.5	101.0	98.0
Feb 12	IND	111–102	44-82	10-34	13-16	16	5	111.0	102.0	100.0
Feb 10	MEM	115–106	47-82	16-31	5-7	19	5	116.2	109.3	98.0
Feb 9	@MIL	84–120	27-79	7-29	23-29	13	8	84.8	121.2	99.0
Feb 7	TOR	117–123	44-90	16-39	13-20	10	9	121.9	126.8	96.5
Feb 5	LAL	118–124	47-96	13-32	11-14	9	5	111.3	114.8	107.0
Feb 4	IND	99–115	35-88	8-29	21-25	10	11	101.0	116.2	98.5
Feb 2	@OKC	106–126	41-92	14-31	10-14	14	7	102.9	123.5	102.5
Jan 31	CHI	110–117	40-90	16-46	14-17	9	9	115.8	123.2	95.0
Jan 29	NYK	92–113	37-81	11-32	7-14	13	9	101.1	124.2	91.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 15	GSW	137–140	43-93	22-49	29-32	16	17	131.7	135.9	103.5
Feb 14	LAL	122–138	49-101	14-45	10-13	13	15	118.4	136.6	102.0
Feb 12	GSW	107–129	41-92	11-32	14-16	17	9	101.9	122.9	105.0
Feb 8	@PHX	115–129	41-94	12-35	21-31	15	19	111.7	126.5	102.5
Feb 6	OKC	124–117	46-89	14-35	18-20	17	15	125.3	119.4	98.5
Feb 4	MIL	123–108	43-89	17-44	20-24	16	12	123.0	108.0	100.0
Feb 1	PHI	124–127	45-87	12-36	22-25	9	10	126.5	129.6	98.0
Jan 30	@NYK	103–118	39-86	12-36	13-17	14	15	112.0	131.1	91.0
Jan 29	@BKN	114–147	39-86	9-27	27-34	17	12	109.6	141.3	104.0
Jan 27	@CHA	134–122	52-93	17-41	13-17	13	15	134.0	120.8	100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

18 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −8 for UTA

16th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

262nd

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	UTA
Final score	115	107
Field goals	40–92 · 43.5%	37–86 · 43.0%
Three-pointers	20–42 · 47.6%	9–39 · 23.1%
Free throws	15–22 · 68.2%	24–27 · 88.9%
Rebounds	42	54
Assists	28	26
Turnovers	9	19
Steals	11	3
Blocks	3	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	+10	−8	−18
Total points	238	222	−16
CHA points	114	115	+1
UTA points	124	107	−17

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	34	22	29	30	–	115
UTA	26	26	38	17	–	107

Recent form before this game