2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors

Friday, December 5, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CHA 3–0@TOR 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	106	111	+5
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	116	86	−30

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1317	1525
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+278
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.2	+4.3
Games played this season	22	23
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.0	114.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.7	111.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	21.6	19.5
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1317TOR1525

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1317

Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
First 12 games: +27.9
Last 10 games: −14.2

LOKC96–109−2.2
L@TOR108–110−1.4
L@IND118–127−4.3
LLAC116–131−9.1
L@ATL110–113−1.4
LNYK101–129−8.8
WCHI123–116+12.0
WTOR118–111+14.0
L@BKN103–116−10.5
L@NYK104–119−2.5

TOR1525

Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
First 13 games: +101.8
Last 10 games: +2.5

WCHA110–108+1.4
W@PHI121–112+8.1
WWAS140–110+3.5
WBKN119–109+2.8
WCLE110–99+11.5
WIND97–95+2.2
L@CHA111–118−14.0
L@NYK94–116−10.5
WPOR121–118+3.6
LLAL120–123−6.1

Season scoring marginCHA−5.2TOR+4.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−5.2

Scores 114.7, allows 119.9 over 22 games: −5.2 a game.

TOR+4.3

Scores 117.8, allows 113.6 over 23 games: +4.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA111.0TOR114.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

CHA111.0scored, −3.9 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.5%	−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.5%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.223	−0.4
Everything else			+2.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

TOR114.7scored, −0.3 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.5%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.5%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.223	−0.6
Everything else			+0.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10CHA119.7TOR111.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

CHA119.7allowed, +4.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.5%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.5%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.223	+1.6
Everything else			−0.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

TOR111.4allowed, −3.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.5%	+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.5%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.223	−0.2
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.8 and TOR 98.8 → average 98.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)

Rotation points missingCHA21.6TOR19.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA21.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Collin Sexton	15.4	24.5	10
Tre Mann	6.2	16.0	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
RJ Barrett	19.5	29.0	4

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysTOR1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Dec 3 against NYK.

TOR1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 4 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 3	@NYK	104–119	36-90	13-42	19-21	13	–	111.8	126.6	93.5
Dec 1	@BKN	103–116	38-85	12-32	15-18	16	–	103.0	117.2	99.5
Nov 29	TOR	118–111	41-93	10-39	26-29	9	–	118.0	109.9	91.0
Nov 28	CHI	123–116	44-97	15-45	20-24	12	10	115.0	109.4	106.5
Nov 26	NYK	101–129	35-85	13-43	18-24	17	9	104.1	131.6	97.5
Nov 23	@ATL	110–113	39-86	14-44	18-20	15	9	115.8	118.9	95.0
Nov 22	LAC	116–131	41-85	11-36	23-26	10	11	120.8	135.1	96.5
Nov 19	@IND	118–127	43-107	13-45	19-22	12	22	118.0	127.0	100.0
Nov 17	@TOR	108–110	37-87	10-40	24-30	16	14	103.8	107.8	103.0
Nov 15	OKC	96–109	37-96	16-42	6-7	12	12	100.0	113.5	96.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 4	LAL	120–123	44-89	15-37	17-21	15	–	127.7	132.3	93.5
Dec 2	POR	121–118	48-90	11-30	14-21	18	–	118.6	113.5	103.0
Nov 30	@NYK	94–116	37-88	11-37	9-17	18	–	96.9	118.4	97.5
Nov 29	@CHA	111–118	44-99	9-29	14-17	15	–	109.9	118.0	91.0
Nov 26	IND	97–95	35-90	5-26	22-27	13	12	96.0	94.1	101.0
Nov 24	CLE	110–99	44-90	10-36	12-18	15	10	107.8	98.0	101.5
Nov 23	BKN	119–109	39-84	15-30	26-29	9	6	125.3	116.0	94.5
Nov 21	WAS	140–110	48-83	14-28	30-39	14	13	133.3	105.8	104.5
Nov 19	@PHI	121–112	45-84	11-29	20-24	14	8	123.5	114.3	98.0
Nov 17	CHA	110–108	44-88	10-25	12-16	17	8	107.8	103.8	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored TOR

35 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −25 for TOR

45th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

22nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.42 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	TOR
Final score	111	86
Field goals	37–74 · 50.0%	34–92 · 37.0%
Three-pointers	13–36 · 36.1%	9–29 · 31.0%
Free throws	24–33 · 72.7%	9–13 · 69.2%
Rebounds	47	41
Assists	26	19
Turnovers	24	19
Steals	14	12
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	+10	−25	−35
Total points	222	197	−25
CHA points	106	111	+5
TOR points	116	86	−30

Recent form before this game