2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, March 23, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–1@ATL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	107	91	−16
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	106	132	+26

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 47% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1300	1457
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+227
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.1	−2.2
Games played this season	69	69
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.1	114.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.8	115.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	95.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	43.7
Rest days	4	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1300ATL1457

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1300

Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
First 59 games: −98.9
Last 10 games: −16.6

L@PHI114–121−3.3
L@TOR106–111−3.4
LORL89–101−6.1
L@WAS100–112−10.2
WBKN110–99+14.1
L@DET97–114−12.0
W@MEM110–98+17.6
LPHX96–107−4.8
L@PHI98–109−4.4
L@ORL92–112−4.1

ATL1457

Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
First 59 games: −78.6
Last 10 games: +26.9

L@BKN102–114−8.3
W@NYK116–100+25.8
WCLE112–101+15.5
W@MEM99–92+7.4
LNOP103–116−8.7
L@POR102–106−7.7
L@UTA122–124−4.1
W@LAC110–93+26.9
L@LAL105–136−14.3
L@PHX115–128−5.6

Season scoring marginCHA−10.1ATL−2.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−10.1

Scores 106.6, allows 116.7 over 69 games: −10.1 a game.

ATL−2.2

Scores 119.0, allows 121.2 over 69 games: −2.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA106.1ATL114.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

CHA106.1scored, −8.7 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.8%	−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	11.6%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.0%	24.1%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.146	0.196	−1.4
Everything else			+0.7

ATL114.0scored, −0.8 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.8%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.6%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.8%	24.1%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.196	−0.9
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10CHA113.8ATL115.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

CHA113.8allowed, −1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.8%	+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	11.6%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	24.1%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.174	0.196	+0.6
Everything else			+0.1

ATL115.9allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.8%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.6%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	24.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.196	−0.8
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 95.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 95.5 and ATL 95.5 → average 95.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0ATL43.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-23 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ATL43.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Johnson	18.2	32.6	6
Saddiq Bey	16.0	35.1	5
Onyeka Okongwu	9.5	18.9	2

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-23 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCHA4 daysATL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA4days

Last played Mar 19 against ORL.

ATL2days

Last played Mar 21 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 19	@ORL	92–112	38-79	9-29	7-9	17	4	98.9	119.1	93.5
Mar 16	@PHI	98–109	37-82	10-31	14-18	16	12	103.2	116.0	94.5
Mar 15	PHX	96–107	35-94	6-37	20-27	4	12	101.1	112.6	95.0
Mar 13	@MEM	110–98	44-82	13-36	9-13	20	6	111.1	100.0	98.5
Mar 11	@DET	97–114	34-88	13-40	16-23	12	6	99.0	115.2	98.5
Mar 9	BKN	110–99	44-81	11-30	11-15	16	7	115.8	106.5	94.0
Mar 8	@WAS	100–112	40-100	9-42	11-15	7	10	101.0	113.1	99.0
Mar 5	ORL	89–101	33-72	12-33	11-11	19	1	97.8	111.0	91.0
Mar 3	@TOR	106–111	43-92	8-27	12-16	16	9	101.9	106.7	104.0
Mar 1	@PHI	114–121	43-84	14-33	14-17	5	7	131.0	137.5	87.5

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 21	@PHX	115–128	40-91	12-35	23-29	8	12	121.1	134.7	95.0
Mar 18	@LAL	105–136	42-98	9-41	12-15	9	12	105.0	134.7	100.5
Mar 17	@LAC	110–93	41-84	17-34	11-12	14	10	118.3	101.1	92.5
Mar 15	@UTA	122–124	41-92	20-39	20-27	9	11	120.8	122.8	101.0
Mar 13	@POR	102–106	38-88	14-39	12-18	14	13	105.2	109.3	97.0
Mar 10	NOP	103–116	38-91	17-46	10-13	11	9	109.6	120.8	95.0
Mar 8	@MEM	99–92	37-87	15-35	10-15	14	12	112.5	104.5	88.0
Mar 6	CLE	112–101	43-84	11-30	15-20	9	5	117.9	104.1	96.0
Mar 5	@NYK	116–100	44-87	10-31	18-23	14	9	122.1	105.3	95.0
Mar 2	@BKN	102–114	37-87	11-34	17-23	11	12	107.4	121.3	94.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

53%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

ATL was the forecast favorite

42 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +41 for ATL

534th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

7th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	ATL
Final score	91	132
Field goals	35–84 · 41.7%	50–90 · 55.6%
Three-pointers	11–39 · 28.2%	20–42 · 47.6%
Free throws	10–14 · 71.4%	12–14 · 85.7%
Rebounds	39	43
Assists	25	40
Turnovers	13	8
Steals	3	9
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	−1	+41	+42
Total points	213	223	+10
CHA points	107	91	−16
ATL points	106	132	+26

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	28	20	26	17	–	91
ATL	30	36	33	33	–	132

Recent form before this game