2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, December 14, 2025 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET
CHA 4–0@CLE 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | 109 | 119 | +10 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 121 | 111 | −10 |
Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1348 | 1581 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +303 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −4.0 | +3.2 |
| Games played this season | 25 | 26 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.0 | 116.4 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 117.7 | 114.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 44.2 | 19.5 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHA1348CLE1581
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHA1348
- Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
- First 15 games: +19.9
- Last 10 games: +25.1
- LLAC116–131−9.1
- L@ATL110–113−1.4
- LNYK101–129−8.8
- WCHI123–116+12.0
- WTOR118–111+14.0
- L@BKN103–116−10.5
- L@NYK104–119−2.5
- W@TOR111–86+41.0
- LDEN106–115−3.7
- LCHI126–129−5.9
CLE1581
- Ended last season at 1687 → started this one at 1641
- First 16 games: −31.7
- Last 10 games: −28.0
- WIND120–109+3.9
- WLAC120–105+6.0
- L@TOR99–110−11.5
- L@ATL123–130−9.4
- LBOS115–117−6.6
- W@IND135–119+10.6
- LPOR110–122−20.4
- WSAS130–117+7.8
- LGSW94–99−10.2
- W@WAS130–126+1.8
Season scoring marginCHA−4.0CLE+3.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHA−4.0
Scores 114.7, allows 118.7 over 25 games: −4.0 a game.
CLE+3.2
Scores 119.0, allows 115.8 over 26 games: +3.2 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10CHA113.0CLE116.4
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
CHA113.0scored, −1.9 vs league
| Factor | CHA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.1% | 54.6% | −2.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.4% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.216 | 0.222 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE116.4scored, +1.4 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.6% | 54.6% | −1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.1% | 12.4% | +3.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.195 | 0.222 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10CHA117.7CLE114.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
CHA117.7allowed, +2.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.2% | 54.6% | −0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.1% | 12.4% | −3.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.169 | 0.222 | +1.5 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CLE114.6allowed, −0.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.6% | +1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.4% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.262 | 0.222 | −1.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 99.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
Rotation points missingCHA44.2CLE19.5
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHA44.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 16.6 | 25.8 | 7 |
| Collin Sexton | 16.1 | 23.2 | 7 |
| Liam McNeeley | 5.8 | 15.7 | 9 |
| Tre Mann | 5.8 | 15.6 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
CLE19.5pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mobley | 19.5 | 33.9 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestCHA2 daysCLE2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHA2days
Last played Dec 12 against CHI.
CLE2days
Last played Dec 12 against WAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12 | CHI | 126–129 | 51-97 | 16-37 | 8-10 | 8 | – | 124.8 | 126.5 | 101.5 |
| Dec 7 | DEN | 106–115 | 38-85 | 14-46 | 16-21 | 13 | – | 109.3 | 118.6 | 97.0 |
| Dec 5 | @TOR | 111–86 | 37-74 | 13-36 | 24-33 | 24 | – | 107.8 | 83.5 | 103.0 |
| Dec 3 | @NYK | 104–119 | 36-90 | 13-42 | 19-21 | 13 | – | 111.8 | 126.6 | 93.5 |
| Dec 1 | @BKN | 103–116 | 38-85 | 12-32 | 15-18 | 16 | – | 103.0 | 117.2 | 99.5 |
| Nov 29 | TOR | 118–111 | 41-93 | 10-39 | 26-29 | 9 | – | 118.0 | 109.9 | 91.0 |
| Nov 28 | CHI | 123–116 | 44-97 | 15-45 | 20-24 | 12 | 10 | 115.0 | 109.4 | 106.5 |
| Nov 26 | NYK | 101–129 | 35-85 | 13-43 | 18-24 | 17 | 9 | 104.1 | 131.6 | 97.5 |
| Nov 23 | @ATL | 110–113 | 39-86 | 14-44 | 18-20 | 15 | 9 | 115.8 | 118.9 | 95.0 |
| Nov 22 | LAC | 116–131 | 41-85 | 11-36 | 23-26 | 10 | 11 | 120.8 | 135.1 | 96.5 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12 | @WAS | 130–126 | 41-97 | 15-53 | 33-36 | 7 | – | 125.0 | 120.0 | 104.5 |
| Dec 6 | GSW | 94–99 | 37-107 | 10-42 | 10-12 | 12 | – | 98.9 | 104.2 | 95.0 |
| Dec 5 | SAS | 130–117 | 50-86 | 8-26 | 22-29 | 14 | – | 126.2 | 113.6 | 103.0 |
| Dec 3 | POR | 110–122 | 38-94 | 13-52 | 21-24 | 7 | – | 106.8 | 120.8 | 102.0 |
| Dec 1 | @IND | 135–119 | 50-98 | 14-40 | 21-29 | 8 | – | 136.4 | 120.2 | 99.0 |
| Nov 30 | BOS | 115–117 | 43-94 | 20-52 | 9-13 | 13 | – | 118.6 | 121.9 | 96.5 |
| Nov 28 | @ATL | 123–130 | 44-95 | 17-39 | 18-20 | 17 | 14 | 115.0 | 121.5 | 107.0 |
| Nov 24 | @TOR | 99–110 | 36-87 | 14-48 | 13-13 | 12 | 4 | 98.0 | 107.8 | 101.5 |
| Nov 23 | LAC | 120–105 | 45-87 | 17-45 | 13-20 | 12 | 8 | 123.7 | 109.4 | 96.5 |
| Nov 21 | IND | 120–109 | 43-89 | 13-35 | 21-27 | 14 | 14 | 115.4 | 106.9 | 103.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 119 | 111 |
| Field goals | 43–98 · 43.9% | 38–95 · 40.0% |
| Three-pointers | 17–44 · 38.6% | 12–38 · 31.6% |
| Free throws | 16–21 · 76.2% | 23–29 · 79.3% |
| Rebounds | 53 | 46 |
| Assists | 28 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 14 |
| Steals | 9 | 10 |
| Blocks | 7 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | +12 | −8 | −20 |
| Total points | 230 | 230 | ±0 |
| CHA points | 109 | 119 | +10 |
| CLE points | 121 | 111 | −10 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 2024-25 | CLE at CHA | CLE 118 – 117 CHA |
| Jan 5 2024-25 | CHA at CLE | CHA 105 – 115 CLE |
| Dec 7 2024-25 | CLE at CHA | CLE 116 – 102 CHA |
| Nov 17 2024-25 | CHA at CLE | CHA 114 – 128 CLE |
| Apr 14 2023-24 | CHA at CLE | CHA 120 – 110 CLE |