2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets

Monday, October 31, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

SAC 0–1@CHA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	108	115	+7
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home)	119	108	−11

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	CHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1396	1538
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+212
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.3	+1.1
Games played this season	5	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.4	117.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.1	113.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	23.5
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1396CHA1538

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1396

Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
This season's 5 games: −16.2

LPOR108–115−14.2
LLAC109–111−3.8
L@GSW125–130−1.6
LMEM110–125−8.0
WMIA119–113+11.4

CHA1538

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
This season's 6 games: +4.4

W@SAS129–102+22.2
LNOP112–124−15.5
W@ATL126–109+17.7
L@NYK131–134−4.9
L@ORL93–113−24.5
WGSW120–113+9.4

Season scoring marginSAC−5.3CHA+1.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−5.3

Scores 114.2, allows 118.8 over 5 games: −4.6 a game.

25% this season (−4.6) + 75% last season (−5.5) = −5.3

CHA+1.1

Scores 118.5, allows 115.8 over 6 games: +2.7 a game.

30% this season (+2.7) + 70% last season (+0.4) = +1.1

Offensive rating, last 10SAC110.4CHA117.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

SAC110.4scored, −1.0 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.4%	53.3%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	11.8%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.7%	23.0%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.196	+1.1
Everything else			−0.5

CHA117.7scored, +6.4 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	53.3%	+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	11.8%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.8%	23.0%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.196	−0.5
Everything else			−0.1

Defensive rating, last 10SAC116.1CHA113.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

SAC116.1allowed, +4.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	53.3%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	11.8%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	23.0%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.196	−0.4
Everything else			+0.3

CHA113.1allowed, +1.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	53.3%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.8%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	23.0%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.196	−0.3
Everything else			−0.0

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 100.4 and CHA 101.0 → average 100.7 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingSAC0.0CHA23.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-31 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

CHA23.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Terry Rozier	23.5	32.9	2

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysCHA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 29 against MIA.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 29 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 29	MIA	119–113	42-76	14-31	21-29	20	6	119.0	110.8	101.0
Oct 27	MEM	110–125	40-83	12-38	18-22	13	9	111.1	126.3	99.0
Oct 23	@GSW	125–130	47-100	11-43	20-25	16	13	113.6	117.1	110.5
Oct 22	LAC	109–111	40-85	14-35	15-26	12	9	111.2	112.1	98.5
Oct 19	POR	108–115	39-85	17-44	13-19	15	4	106.9	113.9	101.0
Apr 10	@PHX	116–109	40-76	14-26	22-30	14	2	117.2	110.1	99.0
Apr 9	@LAC	98–117	38-86	7-28	15-24	13	7	98.0	118.2	99.5
Apr 5	NOP	109–123	39-76	11-30	20-22	15	3	111.2	124.2	98.5
Apr 3	GSW	90–109	31-81	7-33	21-24	12	6	94.7	113.5	95.5
Apr 1	@HOU	122–117	42-81	12-28	26-34	13	8	120.8	114.7	101.5

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 29	GSW	120–113	43-102	10-31	24-31	10	15	113.2	106.6	96.0
Oct 28	@ORL	93–113	33-86	11-38	16-24	14	10	93.0	111.9	100.5
Oct 26	@NYK	131–134	49-99	13-31	20-30	15	9	117.0	119.6	101.4
Oct 23	@ATL	126–109	47-90	11-26	21-30	13	14	124.8	107.9	101.0
Oct 21	NOP	112–124	44-97	13-34	11-14	13	11	108.7	119.2	103.5
Oct 19	@SAS	129–102	48-94	13-29	20-23	15	14	120.6	97.1	106.0
Apr 10	WAS	124–108	48-89	18-33	10-14	17	11	125.3	108.0	99.5
Apr 8	@CHI	133–117	52-86	19-40	10-10	11	8	140.0	124.5	94.5
Apr 7	ORL	128–101	48-92	12-34	20-27	11	10	120.8	93.5	107.0
Apr 5	@MIA	115–144	45-85	12-38	13-18	13	7	113.9	142.6	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored CHA

18 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −7 for CHA

22nd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

204th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	CHA
Final score	115	108
Field goals	37–85 · 43.5%	43–84 · 51.2%
Three-pointers	17–44 · 38.6%	14–29 · 48.3%
Free throws	24–28 · 85.7%	8–14 · 57.1%
Rebounds	42	38
Assists	26	31
Turnovers	19	20
Steals	8	11
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)	+11	−7	−18
Total points	227	223	−4
SAC points	108	115	+7
CHA points	119	108	−11

Recent form before this game