The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 26

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Monday, January 26, 2026 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

PHI 2–1@CHA 7–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 39 percent, CHA 61 percent. PHI 76ers 39% proj. 108 · final 93 CHA Hornets · home 61% proj. 112 · final 130
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 108 93 −15
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 112 130 +18

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHICHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14791537
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +129
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.2+0.5
Games played this season 4446
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.6120.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.9110.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 43.94.5
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1479CHA1537

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1479

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
  2. First 34 games: +127.5
  3. Last 10 games: +10.3
  • WWAS131–110+6.9
  • W@ORL103–91+16.9
  • L@TOR115–116−3.0
  • W@TOR115–102+16.0
  • LCLE107–133−22.5
  • LCLE115–117−4.7
  • WIND113–104+4.6
  • LPHX110–116−6.8
  • WHOU128–122+9.3
  • LNYK109–112−6.4

CHA1537

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
  2. First 36 games: +157.1
  3. Last 10 games: +77.4
  • LTOR96–97−4.6
  • LIND112–114−8.4
  • W@UTA150–95+36.0
  • L@LAC109–117−5.4
  • W@LAL135–117+21.4
  • L@GSW116–136−9.2
  • W@DEN110–87+30.5
  • LCLE87–94−9.7
  • W@ORL124–97+25.4
  • WWAS119–115+1.4
Season scoring marginPHI+1.2CHA+0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+1.2

Scores 116.6, allows 115.5 over 44 games: +1.2 a game.

CHA+0.5

Scores 116.0, allows 115.5 over 46 games: +0.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI113.6CHA120.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI113.6scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2550.213+1.2
Everything else−1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

CHA120.5scored, +5.8 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.5%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.213−0.7
Everything else+5.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10PHI110.9CHA110.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI110.9allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.213+1.2
Everything else−3.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

CHA110.7allowed, −4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.2%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.213+1.1
Everything else+1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 97.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 99.1 and CHA 96.2 → average 97.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingPHI43.9CHA4.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI43.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid28.833.28
Paul George15.131.97

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA4.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Liam McNeeley4.516.32

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-26 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysCHA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Jan 24 against NYK.

CHA2days

Last played Jan 24 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24NYK109–11239-779-2922-2913–112.4114.397.5
Jan 22HOU128–12249-8911-3219-2215–123.1116.294.6
Jan 20PHX110–11639-9311-3421-2719–103.8110.5105.5
Jan 19IND113–10442-885-1724-368–114.1104.099.5
Jan 16CLE115–11743-9112-3217-1910–117.3118.298.5
Jan 14CLE107–13336-8912-4323-2612–103.9130.4102.5
Jan 12@TOR115–10239-7416-3621-2316–122.3108.594.0
Jan 11@TOR115–11641-908-3125-3122–105.5106.498.7
Jan 9@ORL103–9139-954-2821-2412–105.193.897.5
Jan 7WAS131–11045-8414-3727-3210–128.4106.8102.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24WAS119–11541-7914-3623-3021–120.2113.9100.0
Jan 22@ORL124–9743-7917-3621-2514–130.5102.195.0
Jan 21CLE87–9433-988-4713-1812–90.697.996.0
Jan 18@DEN110–8744-8911-3411-1312–127.9101.286.0
Jan 17@GSW116–13643-9416-4414-1717–113.7133.3102.0
Jan 15@LAL135–11750-9220-4315-1612–137.8118.298.5
Jan 12@LAC109–11743-8810-3313-1710–116.0124.594.0
Jan 10@UTA150–9553-10124-5920-2512–148.593.1101.5
Jan 8IND112–11439-8616-4418-2416–114.3116.398.0
Jan 7TOR96–9732-8214-3818-2218–105.5106.691.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
61%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
CHA was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual +37 for CHA
713th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
31st
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHICHA
Final score93130
Field goals35–89 · 39.3%47–83 · 56.6%
Three-pointers9–30 · 30.0%17–41 · 41.5%
Free throws14–19 · 73.7%19–27 · 70.4%
Rebounds3353
Assists2034
Turnovers1723
Steals148
Blocks34

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)+4+37+33
Total points220223+3
PHI points10893−15
CHA points112130+18

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 vs NYK L 109–112
Jan 22 vs HOU W 128–122
Jan 20 vs PHX L 110–116
Jan 19 vs IND W 113–104
Jan 16 vs CLE L 115–117

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 vs WAS W 119–115
Jan 22 at ORL W 124–97
Jan 21 vs CLE L 87–94
Jan 18 at DEN W 110–87
Jan 17 at GSW L 116–136

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 25 2025-26 CHA at PHI CHA 121 – 125 PHI
Dec 20 2024-25 CHA at PHI CHA 98 – 108 PHI
Dec 16 2024-25 PHI at CHA PHI 121 – 108 CHA
Dec 3 2024-25 PHI at CHA PHI 110 – 104 CHA
Nov 10 2024-25 CHA at PHI CHA 105 – 107 PHI