2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Monday, January 22, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 2–1@MIN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	100	128	+28
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	116	125	+9

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 16.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1284	1623
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+409
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.5	+5.8
Games played this season	40	42
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.1	115.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.3	109.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	8.5	8.7
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1284MIN1623

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1284

Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
First 30 games: −103.5
Last 10 games: −28.5

L@DEN93–111−2.4
W@SAC111–104+18.7
L@CHI91–104−4.6
LCHI112–119−5.9
LSAC98–123−11.7
L@SAS99–135−19.8
L@MIA87–104−2.9
L@NOP112–132−2.3
WSAS124–120+5.3
LPHI89–97−2.9

MIN1623

Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
First 32 games: +110.7
Last 10 games: +9.0

LNOP106–117−15.5
W@HOU122–95+17.3
L@DAL108–115−10.1
W@ORL113–92+16.0
L@BOS120–127−4.1
WPOR116–93+3.0
WLAC109–105+4.9
W@DET124–117+1.7
WMEM118–103+4.6
LOKC97–102−8.8

Season scoring marginCHA−11.5MIN+5.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−11.5

Scores 108.3, allows 119.8 over 40 games: −11.5 a game.

MIN+5.8

Scores 113.1, allows 107.3 over 42 games: +5.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA104.1MIN115.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

CHA104.1scored, −11.0 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.1%	54.7%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	11.6%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.3%	24.5%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.156	0.205	−1.4
Everything else			+0.3

MIN115.5scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.7%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	11.6%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	24.5%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.205	+0.2
Everything else			−1.5

Defensive rating, last 10CHA117.3MIN109.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

CHA117.3allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.7%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.6%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.7%	24.5%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.205	+0.3
Everything else			−0.3

MIN109.4allowed, −5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.7%	+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	11.6%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.9%	24.5%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.205	+0.0
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 96.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 96.8 and MIN 96.8 → average 96.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingCHA8.5MIN8.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA8.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nick Richards	8.5	28.5	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN8.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Mike Conley	8.7	28.2	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Jan 20 against PHI.

MIN2days

Last played Jan 20 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 20	PHI	89–97	35-85	9-37	10-14	16	7	90.8	99.0	98.0
Jan 19	SAS	124–120	47-84	16-29	14-16	17	10	127.8	123.7	97.0
Jan 17	@NOP	112–132	39-90	19-45	15-18	13	15	116.7	137.5	96.0
Jan 14	@MIA	87–104	33-95	10-41	11-15	13	17	91.6	107.2	96.0
Jan 12	@SAS	99–135	32-89	10-34	25-28	19	10	95.2	128.6	104.5
Jan 10	SAC	98–123	35-87	16-38	12-16	8	5	103.2	129.5	95.0
Jan 8	CHI	112–119	40-94	17-42	15-17	12	5	109.8	115.5	92.8
Jan 5	@CHI	91–104	36-89	10-34	9-12	11	11	97.8	111.8	93.0
Jan 2	@SAC	111–104	42-82	12-34	15-19	14	3	109.9	103.0	101.0
Jan 1	@DEN	93–111	36-86	10-26	11-16	12	6	97.9	116.8	95.0

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 20	OKC	97–102	31-75	14-37	21-29	21	9	99.0	106.3	97.0
Jan 18	MEM	118–103	45-82	12-28	16-21	14	6	122.9	107.3	96.0
Jan 17	@DET	124–117	47-93	15-30	15-21	9	9	121.6	117.0	101.0
Jan 14	LAC	109–105	38-67	13-26	20-31	17	6	117.2	112.9	93.0
Jan 12	POR	116–93	44-80	11-31	17-24	15	7	117.2	93.9	99.0
Jan 10	@BOS	120–127	44-95	14-34	18-20	9	8	115.4	122.1	94.2
Jan 9	@ORL	113–92	43-80	12-30	15-19	18	5	114.1	92.9	99.0
Jan 7	@DAL	108–115	41-94	13-41	13-21	13	18	113.7	121.1	95.0
Jan 5	@HOU	122–95	46-88	14-33	16-20	14	9	119.6	95.0	101.0
Jan 3	NOP	106–117	37-82	10-31	22-27	11	8	114.0	125.8	93.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

18%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +16, actual −3 for MIN

2nd

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

225th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.70 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	MIN
Final score	128	125
Field goals	50–88 · 56.8%	44–84 · 52.4%
Three-pointers	14–37 · 37.8%	18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws	14–18 · 77.8%	19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds	35	36
Assists	30	34
Turnovers	10	13
Steals	8	4
Blocks	4	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+16	−3	−19
Total points	216	253	+37
CHA points	100	128	+28
MIN points	116	125	+9

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	32	32	28	36	–	128
MIN	34	35	38	18	–	125

Recent form before this game