The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 6

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

BOS 6–2@CHA 3–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 70 percent, CHA 30 percent. BOS Celtics 70% proj. 111 · final 119 CHA Hornets · home 30% proj. 104 · final 80
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 111 119 +8
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 104 80 −24

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSCHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16121495
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −47
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.8−2.3
Games played this season 89
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.3103.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.8111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.019.1
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1612CHA1495

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1612

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 8 games: +10.8
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
  • WBKN125–124+0.6
  • WCHI125–111+2.8
  • W@ORL108–97+10.3
  • L@HOU93–109−10.8
  • WMIL109–102+1.6

CHA1495

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 9 games: −116.0
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
  • WWAS110–103+1.6
  • L@DET89–97−5.3
  • L@WAS79–95−25.5
  • LPHI104–109−8.6
  • LDET91–124−20.2
  • L@BKN104–114−16.3
Season scoring marginBOS+6.8CHA−2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+6.8

Scores 114.2, allows 108.2 over 8 games: +6.0 a game.

40% this season (+6.0) + 60% last season (+7.3) = +6.8

CHA−2.3

Scores 98.1, allows 109.2 over 9 games: −11.1 a game.

45% this season (−11.1) + 55% last season (+4.8) = −2.3

Offensive rating, last 10BOS112.3CHA103.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

BOS112.3scored, +0.2 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%53.3%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%13.3%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%27.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.226−0.3
Everything else−0.1

CHA103.3scored, −8.8 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.3%53.3%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)16.3%13.3%−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%27.1%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.226−1.2
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10BOS109.8CHA111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

BOS109.8allowed, −2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%53.3%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%13.3%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%27.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.226+0.4
Everything else+0.5

CHA111.7allowed, −0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.3%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%13.3%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%27.1%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.226+0.6
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 96.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 97.5 and CHA 96.4 → average 96.9 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0CHA19.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA19.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Dennis Schröder10.229.99
Moussa Diabaté8.928.79

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysCHA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Nov 4 against MIL.

CHA2days

Last played Nov 4 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4MIL109–10237-9116-3919-251219114.7108.594.5
Nov 2@HOU93–10932-8312-4217-201513104.5121.189.5
Nov 1@ORL108–9737-8412-4422-261214116.1104.393.0
Oct 30CHI125–11142-8210-3231-40149121.4106.7103.5
Oct 27BKN125–12442-9311-4130-381411112.6111.7100.5
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@BKN104–11431-7712-4030-361711110.6121.394.0
Nov 2DET91–12432-8413-4414-19251894.8126.597.0
Oct 31PHI104–10938-7614-3914-16189115.6119.890.5
Oct 30@WAS79–9530-10112-567-12101883.299.095.5
Oct 28@DET89–9731-7112-3515-1923993.7102.195.0
Oct 26WAS110–10342-9712-3914-171120114.6108.495.5
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
70%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
32 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −39 for CHA
104th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
4th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSCHA
Final score11980
Field goals38–83 · 45.8%27–92 · 29.3%
Three-pointers24–44 · 54.5%11–50 · 22.0%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%15–17 · 88.2%
Rebounds5143
Assists3318
Turnovers1815
Steals46
Blocks83

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−7−39−32
Total points215199−16
BOS points111119+8
CHA points10480−24

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Boston Celtics

No players listed.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Out Dennis Schröder · Left Soreness
  • Out Grant Williams · Right Hamstring Strain
  • Out Kon Knueppel · Left Hamstring Strain
  • Out Moussa Diabaté

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs MIL W 109–102
Nov 2 at HOU L 93–109
Nov 1 at ORL W 108–97
Oct 30 vs CHI W 125–111
Oct 27 vs BKN W 125–124

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at BKN L 104–114
Nov 2 vs DET L 91–124
Oct 31 vs PHI L 104–109
Oct 30 at WAS L 79–95
Oct 28 at DET L 89–97

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 7 2025-26 CHA at BOS CHA 102 – 113 BOS
Mar 29 2025-26 BOS at CHA BOS 114 – 99 CHA
Mar 4 2025-26 CHA at BOS CHA 118 – 89 BOS
Apr 13 2024-25 CHA at BOS CHA 86 – 93 BOS
Apr 11 2024-25 CHA at BOS CHA 94 – 130 BOS