The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets

Sunday, November 2, 2025 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

UTA 1–0@CHA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 71 percent, CHA 29 percent. UTA Jazz 71% proj. 119 · final 103 CHA Hornets · home 29% proj. 111 · final 126
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 119 103 −16
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 111 126 +15

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputUTACHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13591315
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +26
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.0−7.3
Games played this season 56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.3108.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 122.3120.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 14.437.8
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1359CHA1315

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1359

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
  2. This season's 5 games: +21.1
  • WLAC129–108+30.2
  • L@SAC104–105−1.7
  • WPHX138–134+6.3
  • LPOR134–136−3.4
  • L@PHX96–118−10.3

CHA1315

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
  2. This season's 6 games: +11.9
  • WBKN136–117+14.0
  • L@PHI121–125−4.1
  • W@WAS139–113+25.3
  • L@MIA117–144−6.7
  • LORL107–123−11.1
  • LMIN105–122−5.5
Season scoring marginUTA−7.0CHA−7.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−7.0

Scores 120.2, allows 120.2 over 5 games: ±0.0 a game.

25% this season (±0.0) + 75% last season (−9.3) = −7.0

CHA−7.3

Scores 120.8, allows 124.0 over 6 games: −3.2 a game.

30% this season (−3.2) + 70% last season (−9.1) = −7.3

Offensive rating, last 10UTA114.3CHA108.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

UTA114.3scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.3%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.0%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.6%25.3%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2350.194+1.2
Everything else+1.0

CHA108.3scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.3%−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.0%−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%25.3%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.194+0.1
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10UTA122.3CHA120.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

UTA122.3allowed, +8.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.3%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.0%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%25.3%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.194+0.4
Everything else−0.3

CHA120.2allowed, +6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.3%−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.0%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%25.3%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.194+0.3
Everything else−0.6
Pace, last 10average 101.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 102.3 and CHA 101.3 → average 101.8 (league 2024-25: 99.4)

Rotation points missingUTA14.4CHA37.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA14.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Walker Kessler14.430.85

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA37.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
LaMelo Ball23.333.36
Brandon Miller14.519.92

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysCHA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 31 against PHX.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@PHX96–11830-8012-3724-32211295.0115.7101.5
Oct 29POR134–13641-8411-3541-492116120.7123.6110.5
Oct 27PHX138–13444-10816-4934-361828121.1117.5103.2
Oct 24@SAC104–10538-8613-4115-171911105.1108.298.0
Oct 22LAC129–10848-8717-4416-201213135.8113.795.0
Apr 13@MIN105–11640-8916-429-11137107.1119.697.5
Apr 11OKC111–14539-10317-6316-201613102.8135.5107.5
Apr 9POR133–12650-9815-3618-222413113.7107.7106.0
Apr 6@ATL134–14745-8720-4724-28107132.7144.1101.5
Apr 4@IND112–14039-10416-5218-211117108.7137.3102.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1MIN105–12234-8613-4524-271410104.0122.0100.5
Oct 30ORL107–12342-8311-3012-152112111.5128.196.0
Oct 28@MIA117–14440-9018-4519-23179109.3133.3107.5
Oct 26@WAS139–11347-9215-3830-361111127.5104.6108.5
Oct 25@PHI121–12543-8916-4219-281613117.5120.2103.5
Oct 22BKN136–11748-9017-3623-331614128.3110.4106.0
Apr 13@BOS86–9332-8511-3911-1817995.6103.390.0
Apr 11@BOS94–13036-9315-407-10171194.0130.0100.0
Apr 9@TOR96–12636-8211-3513-1619294.1124.8101.5
Apr 8MEM100–12437-8111-3815-23154101.0125.399.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
29%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored UTA
31 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +23 for CHA
79th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
39th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTACHA
Final score103126
Field goals36–88 · 40.9%43–88 · 48.9%
Three-pointers7–32 · 21.9%18–43 · 41.9%
Free throws24–29 · 82.8%22–22 · 100.0%
Rebounds3846
Assists2731
Turnovers1014
Steals76
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−8+23+31
Total points230229−1
UTA points119103−16
CHA points111126+15

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at PHX L 96–118
Oct 29 vs POR L 134–136
Oct 27 vs PHX W 138–134
Oct 24 at SAC L 104–105
Oct 22 vs LAC W 129–108

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs MIN L 105–122
Oct 30 vs ORL L 107–123
Oct 28 at MIA L 117–144
Oct 26 at WAS W 139–113
Oct 25 at PHI L 121–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 31 2024-25 UTA at CHA UTA 106 – 110 CHA
Jan 15 2024-25 CHA at UTA CHA 117 – 112 UTA
Feb 22 2023-24 CHA at UTA CHA 115 – 107 UTA
Jan 27 2023-24 UTA at CHA UTA 134 – 122 CHA
Mar 11 2022-23 UTA at CHA UTA 119 – 111 CHA