The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

DET 5–1@CHA 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 64 percent, CHA 36 percent. DET Pistons 64% proj. 111 · final 124 CHA Hornets · home 36% proj. 106 · final 91
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 111 124 +13
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 106 91 −15

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

  • Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.2 DETElo CHA 1532, DET 1641; season margin CHA +0.3, DET +7.4.
  • Recent form+3.3 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHA scores 104.4 and allows 111.6; DET scores 111.0 and allows 108.3.
  • Player availability+0.4 CHADET without Jalen Duren (13 ppg).

Together: DET by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 5–1, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 102). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.8, offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3, free throws allowed −1.6. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out.

CHA is 3–4, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 98, allowing 106). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −4, offensive rebounding +2.2. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.4 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors DET.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −4.2, Recent form −3.3, Player availability +0.4, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving −4.6 for CHA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −4.2 Recent form −3.3 Player availability +0.4 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin −4.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −4.6. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDETCHAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16411532 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −39 −2.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.4+0.3 −1.6
Games played this season 67 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.0104.4 −1.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.3111.6 −0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.4 −1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.00.0 +0.4
Rest days 32 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHA ptsDET ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-38.6−0.94+1.68−2.62
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)104.4−1.89−0.39−1.50
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.3−1.50−0.05−1.45
Combined pace, last 1096.4−4.30−2.91−1.39
Season scoring margin (away)7.4−1.06+0.26−1.32
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.95−0.08+1.03
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.6−0.29−1.07+0.78
Games played (away)6.0+0.06+0.66−0.60
Rotation points missing (away)13.0−0.04+0.56−0.59
Elo rating (home)1532.0+0.10−0.24+0.34
Season scoring margin (home)0.3−0.08+0.21−0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.36+0.09+0.27
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.0+0.04−0.22+0.26
Elo rating (away)1640.6+0.16−0.10+0.26
Series pressure0.0+0.11+0.02+0.09
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Games played (home)7.0+0.11+0.07+0.03
Rest days (away)3.0+0.01+0.00+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1641CHA15322.0 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1641

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 6 games: +31.4
  • WBOS121–113+6.7
  • W@MIA128–111+12.1
  • W@PHI106–93+11.9
  • L@NYK97–111−8.5
  • WCHA97–89+5.3
  • W@BKN110–94+3.9

CHA1532

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 7 games: −79.5
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
  • WWAS110–103+1.6
  • L@DET89–97−5.3
  • L@WAS79–95−25.5
  • LPHI104–109−8.6
Season scoring marginDET+7.4CHA+0.32.2 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+7.4

Scores 109.8, allows 101.8 over 6 games: +8.0 a game.

30% this season (+8.0) + 70% last season (+7.2) = +7.4

CHA+0.3

Scores 98.3, allows 106.4 over 7 games: −8.1 a game.

35% this season (−8.1) + 65% last season (+4.8) = +0.3

Offensive rating, last 10DET111.0CHA104.41.2 pts toward DET

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET111.0scored, −3.6 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210−0.2
Everything else−0.4

CHA104.4scored, −10.2 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.7%54.5%−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.0%12.2%−4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.0%26.1%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.210−1.4
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10DET108.3CHA111.60.7 pts toward DET

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET108.3allowed, −6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2650.210−1.6
Everything else+0.1

CHA111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.210+0.4
Everything else+1.0
Pace, last 10average 96.41.4 pts toward DET

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 96.8 and CHA 96.0 → average 96.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET13.0CHA0.00.4 pts toward CHA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Duren13.019.12

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysCHA2 days0.1 pts toward CHA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Oct 30 against BKN.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 31 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@BKN110–9438-9012-4122-28129108.992.2101.5
Oct 28CHA97–8934-7613-3316-20137102.193.795.0
Oct 27@NYK97–11137-879-3714-241415100.0114.497.0
Oct 25@PHI106–9338-8714-3416-251515110.497.995.5
Oct 23@MIA128–11147-8918-3816-201912125.5107.8102.5
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31PHI104–10938-7614-3914-16189115.6119.890.5
Oct 30@WAS79–9530-10112-567-12101883.299.095.5
Oct 28@DET89–9731-7112-3515-1923993.7102.195.0
Oct 26WAS110–10342-9712-3914-171120114.6108.495.5
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
28 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −33 for CHA
87th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
9th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETCHA
Final score12491
Field goals47–82 · 57.3%32–84 · 38.1%
Three-pointers18–37 · 48.6%13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws12–15 · 80.0%14–19 · 73.7%
Rebounds3744
Assists3019
Turnovers1425
Steals158
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−5−33−28
Total points217215−2
DET points111124+13
CHA points10691−15

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at BKN W 110–94
Oct 28 vs CHA W 97–89
Oct 27 at NYK L 97–111
Oct 25 at PHI W 106–93
Oct 23 at MIA W 128–111

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs PHI L 104–109
Oct 30 at WAS L 79–95
Oct 28 at DET L 89–97
Oct 26 vs WAS W 110–103
Oct 24 vs MIA W 115–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 28 2026-27 CHA at DET CHA 89 – 97 DET
Apr 10 2025-26 DET at CHA DET 118 – 100 CHA
Feb 9 2025-26 DET at CHA DET 110 – 104 CHA
Dec 20 2025-26 CHA at DET CHA 86 – 112 DET
Feb 9 2024-25 CHA at DET CHA 102 – 112 DET