2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls

Friday, January 17, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 1–0@CHI 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	108	125	+17
CHI Chicago Bulls (home)	118	123	+5

Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	CHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1324	1423
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+169
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.9	−3.1
Games played this season	37	41
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.0	111.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.6	111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1324CHI1423

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1324

Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
First 27 games: −40.7
Last 10 games: −1.5

L@PHI98–108−4.6
LHOU101–114−4.9
L@WAS110–113−5.2
LOKC94–106−2.3
LCHI108–115−6.4
L@DET94–98−2.6
L@CLE105–115−1.0
WPHX115–104+16.3
L@PHX113–120−2.8
W@UTA117–112+12.0

CHI1423

Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
First 31 games: −39.5
Last 10 games: −19.0

WMIL116–111+7.1
W@CHA115–108+6.4
L@WAS107–125−22.6
WNYK139–126+19.2
WSAS114–110+5.3
L@IND113–129−6.9
WWAS138–105+7.0
LSAC119–124−6.2
LNOP113–119−13.3
LATL94–110−15.0

Season scoring marginCHA−5.9CHI−3.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−5.9

Scores 106.5, allows 112.4 over 37 games: −5.9 a game.

CHI−3.1

Scores 117.5, allows 120.5 over 41 games: −3.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA105.0CHI111.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CHA105.0scored, −7.7 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.7%	54.2%	−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.4%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	24.7%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.192	+0.1
Everything else			+0.6

CHI111.5scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	CHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.2%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.4%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	24.7%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.135	0.192	−1.7
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10CHA109.6CHI111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CHA109.6allowed, −3.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.2%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.4%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	24.7%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.192	+0.9
Everything else			+0.7

CHI111.7allowed, −1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.2%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.8%	12.4%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	24.7%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.147	0.192	+1.3
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 99.7 and CHI 103.7 → average 101.7 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-17 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-17 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysCHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Jan 15 against UTA.

CHI2days

Last played Jan 15 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 15	@UTA	117–112	45-85	12-39	15-21	18	11	115.8	110.9	101.0
Jan 12	@PHX	113–120	41-92	15-40	16-20	16	15	114.1	118.8	100.0
Jan 7	PHX	115–104	38-98	13-47	26-29	11	20	113.9	103.0	101.0
Jan 5	@CLE	105–115	38-91	15-42	14-19	15	13	106.1	115.0	99.5
Jan 3	@DET	94–98	33-80	9-30	19-30	17	9	94.9	100.0	98.5
Dec 30	CHI	108–115	42-101	10-43	14-20	14	6	94.7	101.8	102.8
Dec 28	OKC	94–106	29-80	11-34	25-28	18	6	94.9	106.0	99.5
Dec 26	@WAS	110–113	41-94	17-42	11-14	18	11	104.8	106.6	105.5
Dec 23	HOU	101–114	37-89	10-36	17-24	11	8	103.1	116.3	98.0
Dec 20	@PHI	98–108	36-78	10-31	16-21	17	11	107.7	117.4	91.5

CHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 15	ATL	94–110	39-88	6-27	10-10	20	8	88.7	105.8	105.0
Jan 14	NOP	113–119	45-102	14-43	9-12	15	18	110.8	119.0	101.0
Jan 12	SAC	119–124	43-93	18-37	15-20	7	8	116.7	122.8	101.5
Jan 10	WAS	138–105	53-95	23-49	9-14	13	11	131.4	100.0	105.0
Jan 8	@IND	113–129	44-86	12-35	13-19	18	8	109.7	127.7	102.0
Jan 6	SAS	114–110	44-102	13-39	13-15	13	14	110.7	106.8	103.0
Jan 4	NYK	139–126	51-94	20-37	17-18	12	9	131.1	117.8	106.5
Jan 1	@WAS	107–125	41-92	14-47	11-14	20	7	100.0	114.7	108.0
Dec 30	@CHA	115–108	39-104	18-60	19-27	13	11	101.8	94.7	102.8
Dec 28	MIL	116–111	45-95	14-36	12-17	11	10	113.7	107.8	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

25%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored CHI

12 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −2 for CHI

33rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

471st

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	CHI
Final score	125	123
Field goals	48–96 · 50.0%	48–95 · 50.5%
Three-pointers	13–34 · 38.2%	14–40 · 35.0%
Free throws	16–20 · 80.0%	13–14 · 92.9%
Rebounds	44	45
Assists	26	34
Turnovers	12	13
Steals	9	9
Blocks	2	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)	+10	−2	−12
Total points	226	248	+22
CHA points	108	125	+17
CHI points	118	123	+5

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	36	37	25	27	–	125
CHI	29	42	32	20	–	123

Recent form before this game