The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 21

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, January 21, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 3–1@ATL 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 19 percent, ATL 81 percent. CHA Hornets 19% proj. 110 · final 122 ATL Hawks · home 81% proj. 124 · final 118
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 110 122 +12
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 124 118 −6

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHAATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13901515
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +195
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.5−0.2
Games played this season 4646
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.5117.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.4115.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 29.012.4
Rest days 31
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1390ATL1515

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1390

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
  2. First 36 games: −141.7
  3. Last 10 games: −1.1
  • LBKN106–123−8.1
  • LLAL115–121−7.3
  • LMEM107–131−9.1
  • W@MIL138–109+43.4
  • L@IND111–116−3.7
  • L@TOR120–132−6.3
  • L@TOR114–124−5.3
  • LBOS106–122−6.5
  • LBOS118–130−5.0
  • W@HOU122–117+6.8

ATL1515

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 36 games: −49.5
  3. Last 10 games: +48.0
  • L@GSW141–143−2.4
  • W@SAC120–117+7.8
  • L@LAL114–130−10.3
  • W@LAC112–108+8.4
  • LMIL105–114−10.6
  • W@IND113–111+6.7
  • W@TOR114–103+15.1
  • WMIA121–113+9.2
  • W@DAL130–122+11.9
  • WNYK139–124+12.2
Season scoring marginCHA−6.5ATL−0.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−6.5

Scores 112.4, allows 118.9 over 46 games: −6.5 a game.

ATL−0.2

Scores 115.9, allows 116.2 over 46 games: −0.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA114.5ATL117.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.4).

CHA114.5scored, +1.1 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.4%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%12.3%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%23.9%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.213−0.4
Everything else−0.2

ATL117.8scored, +4.4 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.4%+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.3%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%23.9%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.213−0.5
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10CHA121.4ATL115.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.4).

CHA121.4allowed, +8.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.4%−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.3%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%23.9%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.213−0.5
Everything else−1.2

ATL115.3allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.4%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.3%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%23.9%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.213+0.5
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 101.3 and ATL 100.8 → average 101.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA29.0ATL12.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA29.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
LaMelo Ball23.234.210
Cody Martin5.822.16

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-21 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ATL12.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Bogdan Bogdanović12.431.69

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-21 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA3 daysATL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA3days

Last played Jan 18 against HOU.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 20 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 18@HOU122–11748-969-3617-25911116.2111.4105.0
Jan 16BOS118–13041-9013-3123-30513125.5136.894.5
Jan 14BOS106–12241-888-2716-191110110.4127.196.0
Jan 12@TOR114–12441-7713-3319-27229115.2126.598.5
Jan 10@TOR120–13247-8615-3511-1596125.0137.596.0
Jan 8@IND111–11638-8811-3324-271813106.7112.6103.5
Jan 6@MIL138–10953-10220-4812-19513135.3107.9101.5
Jan 4MEM107–13138-9411-3820-241210100.0121.3107.5
Jan 2LAL115–12142-9311-3220-29148105.5110.0109.5
Dec 31BKN106–12338-9611-4119-211214105.0123.0100.5

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 20NYK139–12456-10013-3414-16714147.9130.594.5
Jan 18@DAL130–12249-8613-2619-20127132.7124.598.0
Jan 16MIA121–11345-7613-2718-22162122.2114.199.0
Jan 14@TOR114–10343-8411-2717-18115116.3104.098.5
Jan 13@IND113–11141-9416-3315-211314113.0112.199.5
Jan 11MIL105–11439-8711-3016-18116104.0114.0100.5
Jan 8@LAC112–10844-898-2616-2097110.9106.9101.0
Jan 6@LAL114–13044-969-3117-22127104.6119.3109.0
Jan 4@SAC120–11745-8410-3020-22157117.6114.7102.0
Jan 2@GSW141–14353-10911-3524-291310109.3112.6105.9

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
19%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −4 for ATL
8th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
204th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHAATL
Final score122118
Field goals45–89 · 50.6%45–83 · 54.2%
Three-pointers13–34 · 38.2%11–25 · 44.0%
Free throws19–22 · 86.4%17–20 · 85.0%
Rebounds3640
Assists2824
Turnovers1216
Steals115
Blocks24

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+14−4−18
Total points234240+6
CHA points110122+12
ATL points124118−6

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 18 at HOU W 122–117
Jan 16 vs BOS L 118–130
Jan 14 vs BOS L 106–122
Jan 12 at TOR L 114–124
Jan 10 at TOR L 120–132

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 20 vs NYK W 139–124
Jan 18 at DAL W 130–122
Jan 16 vs MIA W 121–113
Jan 14 at TOR W 114–103
Jan 13 at IND W 113–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 16 2022-23 ATL at CHA ATL 125 – 106 CHA
Oct 23 2022-23 CHA at ATL CHA 126 – 109 ATL
Mar 16 2021-22 ATL at CHA ATL 106 – 116 CHA
Jan 23 2021-22 ATL at CHA ATL 113 – 91 CHA
Dec 5 2021-22 CHA at ATL CHA 130 – 127 ATL