The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 1–0@CHA 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 33 percent, CHA 67 percent. ATL Hawks 33% proj. 110 · final 128 CHA Hornets · home 67% proj. 116 · final 81
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 110 128 +18
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 116 81 −35

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+3.1 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHA scores 117.9 and allows 112.3; ATL scores 108.6 and allows 120.1.
  • Team strength+0.7 CHAElo CHA 1614, ATL 1537; season margin CHA +4.9, ATL +1.4.

Together: CHA by 6, a 67% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA is 1–0, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 103). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 33% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 3.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line −1.0. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors.

ATL is 1–0, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 132, allowing 125). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.3.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors ATL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +3.1, Team strength +0.7, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.0, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +6.1 for CHA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +3.1 Team strength +0.7 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.0 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +6.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +6.1. The 67% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputATLCHAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15371614 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +147 +1.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.4+4.9 +0.4
Games played this season 11 −1.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.6117.9 +1.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.1112.3 +2.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.9 −0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHA ptsATL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.1+1.73+0.21+1.51
Elo gap incl. home court147.1+0.67−0.67+1.34
Games played (away)1.0+0.32+1.40−1.08
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.6+0.00−0.96+0.96
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.29+0.48−0.77
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.65−0.08+0.74
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.3−0.47−1.04+0.58
Combined pace, last 1097.9−2.38−1.81−0.57
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)117.9+0.40−0.17+0.57
Season scoring margin (home)4.9+0.15−0.27+0.42
Elo rating (home)1614.4+0.04−0.27+0.31
Games played (home)1.0+0.54+0.83−0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.04+0.23
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.04−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.02
Season scoring margin (away)1.4+0.06+0.05+0.01
Elo rating (away)1537.3−0.02−0.02−0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1537CHA16141.6 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1537

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 1 game: +11.1
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1

CHA1614

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 1 game: +3.0
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
Season scoring marginATL+1.4CHA+4.91.0 pts toward ATL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+1.4

Scores 132.0, allows 125.0 over 1 game: +7.0 a game.

5% this season (+7.0) + 95% last season (+1.1) = +1.4

CHA+4.9

Scores 110.0, allows 103.0 over 1 game: +7.0 a game.

5% this season (+7.0) + 95% last season (+4.8) = +4.9

Offensive rating, last 10ATL108.6CHA117.91.5 pts toward CHA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL108.6scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.210−0.6
Everything else−0.9

CHA117.9scored, +3.3 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.7%26.1%+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.210−1.0
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10ATL120.1CHA112.32.1 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL120.1allowed, +5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.210−1.3
Everything else−0.4

CHA112.3allowed, −2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.5%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.210+1.0
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 97.90.6 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 100.1 and CHA 95.7 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0CHA0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysCHA2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 21 against ORL.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 21 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5
Apr 18@NYK102–11338-8714-3712-19128103.0114.199.0
Apr 12@MIA117–14344-9317-4412-181613111.4137.5104.5
Apr 10CLE124–10245-9316-4418-251114121.6100.0102.0
Apr 8@CLE116–12247-9812-3410-151110110.5117.3104.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0
Apr 2PHX127–10748-9318-4913-151011132.3112.695.5
Mar 31@BKN117–8641-8712-3923-251113123.290.595.0
Mar 29BOS99–11436-8312-4315-191110108.8125.391.0
Mar 28PHI114–11836-9617-5525-32921117.5122.996.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
33%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored CHA
53 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual −47 for CHA
14th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
1st
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.10 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLCHA
Final score12881
Field goals48–95 · 50.5%30–87 · 34.5%
Three-pointers18–45 · 40.0%11–51 · 21.6%
Free throws14–22 · 63.6%10–12 · 83.3%
Rebounds4848
Assists3721
Turnovers1225
Steals177
Blocks47

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)+6−47−53
Total points226209−17
ATL points110128+18
CHA points11681−35

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at ORL W 132–125
Apr 30 vs NYK L 89–140
Apr 28 at NYK L 97–126
Apr 25 vs NYK L 98–114
Apr 23 vs NYK W 109–108

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at BKN W 110–103
Apr 12 at NYK W 110–96
Apr 10 vs DET L 100–118
Apr 7 at BOS L 102–113
Apr 5 at MIN W 122–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 11 2025-26 ATL at CHA ATL 107 – 110 CHA
Feb 7 2025-26 CHA at ATL CHA 126 – 119 ATL
Dec 18 2025-26 ATL at CHA ATL 126 – 133 CHA
Nov 23 2025-26 CHA at ATL CHA 110 – 113 ATL
Mar 18 2024-25 ATL at CHA ATL 134 – 102 CHA