The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 15

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings

Tuesday, November 15, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

BKN 2–0@SAC 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 60 percent, SAC 40 percent. BKN Nets 60% proj. 113 · final 121 SAC Kings · home 40% proj. 109 · final 153
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 113 121 +8
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 109 153 +44

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBKNSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15171445
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.1−2.1
Games played this season 1412
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.6115.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 106.8114.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 26.50.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1517SAC1445

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1517

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
  2. First 4 games: −27.5
  3. Last 10 games: +25.8
  • LDAL125–129−5.4
  • LIND116–125−16.0
  • WIND116–109+4.9
  • LCHI99–108−13.2
  • W@WAS128–86+34.0
  • W@CHA98–94+8.0
  • L@DAL94–96−2.4
  • WNYK112–85+16.0
  • W@LAC110–95+15.8
  • L@LAL103–116−15.9

SAC1445

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
  2. First 2 games: −18.0
  3. Last 10 games: +50.9
  • L@GSW125–130−1.6
  • LMEM110–125−8.0
  • WMIA119–113+11.4
  • W@CHA115–108+15.6
  • L@MIA107–110−2.0
  • W@ORL126–123+6.4
  • L@GSW113–116−2.0
  • WCLE127–120+11.3
  • W@LAL120–114+8.9
  • WGSW122–115+10.9
Season scoring marginBKN+1.1SAC−2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN+1.1

Scores 110.1, allows 108.7 over 14 games: +1.4 a game.

70% this season (+1.4) + 30% last season (+0.5) = +1.1

SAC−2.1

Scores 116.8, allows 116.7 over 12 games: +0.1 a game.

60% this season (+0.1) + 40% last season (−5.5) = −2.1

Offensive rating, last 10BKN112.6SAC115.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

BKN112.6scored, +0.9 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%53.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.7%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%24.0%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.209+0.2
Everything else−0.8

SAC115.5scored, +3.8 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%53.5%+5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.7%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%24.0%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.209+0.6
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10BKN106.8SAC114.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

BKN106.8allowed, −4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%53.5%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.7%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%24.0%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.209−0.3
Everything else−0.6

SAC114.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%53.5%−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.7%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.0%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.209+0.5
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 96.7 and SAC 101.5 → average 99.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN26.5SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN26.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyrie Irving26.539.34

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-15 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-15 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Nov 13 against LAL.

SAC2days

Last played Nov 13 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 13@LAL103–11636-807-2724-31128108.4120.895.5
Nov 12@LAC110–9540-8316-3514-21126112.296.998.0
Nov 9NYK112–8542-8714-3414-201411112.085.0100.0
Nov 7@DAL94–9635-8010-2914-191314105.6109.188.5
Nov 5@CHA98–9433-8412-3620-22119105.4100.093.5
Nov 4@WAS128–8650-9014-2814-1477132.087.897.5
Nov 1CHI99–10836-7412-3215-19184104.2112.595.5
Oct 31IND116–10943-8011-3019-20196110.5104.8104.5
Oct 29IND116–12541-8214-3920-2696120.8128.996.5
Oct 27DAL125–12943-9312-3527-301313114.7121.797.4

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 13GSW122–11547-9116-3712-19159117.3110.6104.0
Nov 11@LAL120–11445-8712-3618-211510120.0115.299.5
Nov 9CLE127–12040-7617-3930-3592129.6122.498.0
Nov 7@GSW113–11637-9114-4025-29109107.6112.6104.0
Nov 5@ORL126–12347-9315-4017-26146113.5111.8100.1
Nov 2@MIA107–11041-8613-3612-14124111.5113.496.5
Oct 31@CHA115–10837-8517-4424-281910111.7105.9102.5
Oct 29MIA119–11342-7614-3121-29206119.0110.8101.0
Oct 27MEM110–12540-8312-3818-22139111.1126.399.0
Oct 23@GSW125–13047-10011-4320-251613113.6117.1110.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
40%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner
the forecast favored BKN
36 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual +32 for SAC
232nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
14th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.93 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNSAC
Final score121153
Field goals40–81 · 49.4%56–94 · 59.6%
Three-pointers11–28 · 39.3%20–41 · 48.8%
Free throws30–33 · 90.9%21–25 · 84.0%
Rebounds2943
Assists2539
Turnovers1716
Steals59
Blocks34

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)−4+32+36
Total points222274+52
BKN points113121+8
SAC points109153+44

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 13 at LAL L 103–116
Nov 12 at LAC W 110–95
Nov 9 vs NYK W 112–85
Nov 7 at DAL L 94–96
Nov 5 at CHA W 98–94

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Nov 13 vs GSW W 122–115
Nov 11 at LAL W 120–114
Nov 9 vs CLE W 127–120
Nov 7 at GSW L 113–116
Nov 5 at ORL W 126–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 14 2021-22 SAC at BKN SAC 85 – 109 BKN
Feb 2 2021-22 BKN at SAC BKN 101 – 112 SAC