2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

Monday, January 23, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 1–3@SAC 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	116	100	−16
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	119	133	+14

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1642	1521
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−51
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.5	+2.9
Games played this season	46	45
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.9	127.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.5	118.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1642SAC1521

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1642

Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
First 36 games: +15.0
Last 10 games: +29.4

W@CHA131–107+9.1
W@ORL123–115+4.5
WUTA123–118+2.9
WSAS121–113+1.9
WSAS135–129+1.6
W@IND130–112+11.2
WPHX136–106+8.2
WCLE115–114+2.1
L@LAL121–122−5.8
L@PHX110–112−6.3

SAC1521

Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
First 35 games: +76.6
Last 10 games: +32.6

W@UTA117–115+6.3
LATL117–120−7.8
LLAL134–136−6.0
WORL136–111+10.6
WHOU135–115+5.7
WHOU139–114+6.2
W@SAS132–119+8.8
W@LAL116–111+8.1
WOKC118–113+5.7
LPHI127–129−5.0

Season scoring marginMEM+5.5SAC+2.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+5.5

Scores 117.4, allows 111.9 over 46 games: +5.5 a game.

SAC+2.9

Scores 120.0, allows 117.1 over 45 games: +2.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM118.9SAC127.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.4).

MEM118.9scored, +5.5 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.4%	+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.3%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.3%	23.9%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.213	−0.2
Everything else			+0.5

SAC127.1scored, +13.7 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.5%	54.4%	+7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	12.3%	+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	23.9%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.248	0.213	+1.0
Everything else			+1.5

Defensive rating, last 10MEM109.5SAC118.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.4).

MEM109.5allowed, −4.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.4%	+4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.3%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.1%	23.9%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.225	0.213	−0.3
Everything else			−1.3

SAC118.4allowed, +4.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.4%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.3%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	23.9%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.213	+0.7
Everything else			−1.1

Pace, last 10average 102.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 104.9 and SAC 100.0 → average 102.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-23 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-23 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMEM1 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 22 against PHX.

SAC2days

Last played Jan 21 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 22	@PHX	110–112	40-92	11-32	19-27	20	15	105.8	106.7	104.5
Jan 20	@LAL	121–122	43-102	9-29	26-40	14	24	114.2	115.1	106.0
Jan 18	CLE	115–114	44-97	11-34	16-22	8	15	118.6	118.8	96.5
Jan 16	PHX	136–106	52-98	16-37	16-20	10	13	134.7	103.9	101.5
Jan 14	@IND	130–112	48-87	12-32	22-28	15	7	116.1	100.0	112.0
Jan 11	SAS	135–129	52-101	14-22	17-25	13	17	126.2	118.3	108.0
Jan 9	SAS	121–113	45-91	11-26	20-35	13	11	114.2	105.6	106.5
Jan 8	UTA	123–118	46-102	15-38	16-22	10	13	116.0	112.4	105.5
Jan 5	@ORL	123–115	48-92	12-36	15-23	12	9	121.8	113.9	101.0
Jan 4	@CHA	131–107	47-94	9-30	28-37	14	11	121.3	100.0	107.5

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 21	PHI	127–129	46-84	13-33	22-29	8	4	129.6	130.3	98.5
Jan 20	OKC	118–113	41-87	12-38	24-28	15	13	119.2	115.3	98.5
Jan 18	@LAL	116–111	43-87	9-30	21-27	11	14	122.1	115.6	95.5
Jan 15	@SAS	132–119	49-89	14-30	20-25	5	7	136.1	124.0	96.5
Jan 13	HOU	139–114	47-86	20-40	25-29	14	14	140.4	115.2	99.0
Jan 11	HOU	135–115	45-94	19-48	26-31	9	9	128.6	109.5	105.0
Jan 9	ORL	136–111	52-97	23-46	9-12	11	11	133.3	108.8	102.0
Jan 7	LAL	134–136	45-86	14-32	30-37	14	13	131.4	134.7	101.5
Jan 4	ATL	117–120	41-88	10-25	25-27	10	10	114.7	117.6	102.0
Jan 3	@UTA	117–115	46-86	9-32	16-18	17	7	115.8	112.7	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

58%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

SAC was the forecast favorite

30 pts

margin miss

forecast +3, actual +33 for SAC

686th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

26th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.55 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	SAC
Final score	100	133
Field goals	40–98 · 40.8%	49–88 · 55.7%
Three-pointers	12–36 · 33.3%	22–40 · 55.0%
Free throws	8–10 · 80.0%	13–14 · 92.9%
Rebounds	31	53
Assists	28	37
Turnovers	15	24
Steals	14	10
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+3	+33	+30
Total points	235	233	−2
MEM points	116	100	−16
SAC points	119	133	+14

Recent form before this game