The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 8

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

MIA 3–6@SAC 1–8 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 65 percent, SAC 35 percent. MIA Heat 65% proj. 123 · final 114 SAC Kings · home 35% proj. 118 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 123 114 −9
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 118 108 −10

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIA

  • Home court+2.1 SACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.6 MIAElo SAC 1336, MIA 1481; season margin SAC −11.8, MIA −1.7.
  • Recent form+0.4 MIALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAC scores 107.8 and allows 120.9; MIA scores 113.4 and allows 117.0.

Together: MIA by 5, a 65% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIA is 3–6, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 123). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.6, ball security +1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.3.

SAC is 1–8, losing by 14 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 123). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.6, free throws allowed −1.5. Domantas Sabonis (15 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAC; left favors MIA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −6.6, Recent form −0.4, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving −4.7 for SAC. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −6.6 Recent form −0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin −4.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −4.7. The 65% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMIASACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14811336 −1.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −75 −3.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.7−11.8 −0.8
Games played this season 99 −0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.4107.8 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.0120.9 −0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.6 −0.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.015.3 +0.1
Rest days 32 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAC ptsMIA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-75.2−1.48+2.44−3.92
Elo rating (home)1335.7−0.38+1.54−1.93
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.9+0.53+1.90−1.37
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)117.0+1.26+0.05+1.22
Season scoring margin (home)-11.8−0.91+0.12−1.03
Rotation points missing (home)15.3+0.52−0.00+0.52
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.17+0.26−0.43
Elo rating (away)1480.8+0.33−0.02+0.35
Combined pace, last 10102.6+3.54+3.89−0.35
Season scoring margin (away)-1.7+0.51+0.29+0.22
Games played (away)9.0−0.05+0.14−0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.22+0.09+0.12
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.4+0.01−0.09+0.10
Games played (home)9.0−0.20−0.14−0.06
Rest days (home)2.0−0.04+0.01−0.05
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Rest days (away)3.0+0.00−0.03+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01±0.00+0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.8−0.24−0.23−0.01
Elimination game0+0.00−0.00+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1481SAC13365.5 pts toward MIA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1481

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 9 games: −37.4
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
  • LDAL109–113−10.3
  • W@ATL129–117+19.4
  • WIND145–125+7.3
  • L@LAL117–138−9.1
  • W@LAC117–116+5.0
  • L@GSW100–120−12.2

SAC1336

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 9 games: −33.8
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
  • LMEM112–123−14.2
  • L@SAS103–130−2.6
  • L@NOP120–132−6.8
  • L@MEM105–136−12.2
  • W@DAL115–100+24.4
  • LLAL103–116−6.0
  • LSAS109–124−3.6
Season scoring marginMIA−1.7SAC−11.81.1 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA−1.7

Scores 116.0, allows 122.6 over 9 games: −6.6 a game.

45% this season (−6.6) + 55% last season (+2.3) = −1.7

SAC−11.8

Scores 109.2, allows 123.3 over 9 games: −14.1 a game.

45% this season (−14.1) + 55% last season (−10.0) = −11.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIA113.4SAC107.80.1 pts toward SAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

MIA113.4scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.2%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%13.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%27.2%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.225−0.5
Everything else−0.4

SAC107.8scored, −4.3 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%53.2%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%13.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%27.2%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.225−0.7
Everything else−1.1
Defensive rating, last 10MIA117.0SAC120.90.2 pts toward MIA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

MIA117.0allowed, +4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.4%53.2%−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%13.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%27.2%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.225+1.3
Everything else−0.0

SAC120.9allowed, +8.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%53.2%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%13.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%27.2%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2780.225−1.5
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 102.60.4 pts toward MIA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 103.5 and SAC 101.7 → average 102.6 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0SAC15.30.1 pts toward SAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAC15.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Domantas Sabonis15.335.59

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIA3 daysSAC2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA3days

Last played Nov 5 against GSW.

SAC2days

Last played Nov 6 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 5@GSW100–12035-8613-4417-2319995.2115.4104.5
Nov 4@LAC117–11643-10010-4021-261212105.4104.5100.5
Nov 2@LAL117–13838-7516-4125-35197114.7135.3102.0
Oct 30IND145–12554-9318-4019-231615139.4119.0104.5
Oct 28@ATL129–11751-9611-2916-231412120.6109.3107.0
Oct 26DAL109–11341-9213-4114-251410105.8110.8102.5
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6SAS109–12440-8216-3513-19117113.5131.995.0
Nov 4LAL103–11635-9012-3821-281715104.0114.9100.0
Nov 2@DAL115–10043-8219-4310-151710119.8103.196.5
Oct 31@MEM105–13635-8611-3824-29137100.0128.3105.5
Oct 29@NOP120–13246-8812-3716-20257108.1118.9111.0
Oct 27@SAS103–13040-9313-3710-131313103.0130.0100.0
Oct 25MEM112–12344-9510-3314-221316113.1121.8100.0
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
65%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
MIA was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −6 for SAC
92nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIASAC
Final score114108
Field goals44–88 · 50.0%38–82 · 46.3%
Three-pointers18–43 · 41.9%11–37 · 29.7%
Free throws8–18 · 44.4%21–23 · 91.3%
Rebounds3644
Assists2924
Turnovers1318
Steals77
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)−5−6−1
Total points241222−19
MIA points123114−9
SAC points118108−10

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Miami Heat

No players listed.

Sacramento Kings

  • Out Ben Simmons
  • Out Domantas Sabonis · Left Knee Soreness
  • Out Maxime Raynaud

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Nov 5 at GSW L 100–120
Nov 4 at LAC W 117–116
Nov 2 at LAL L 117–138
Oct 30 vs IND W 145–125
Oct 28 at ATL W 129–117

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 vs SAS L 109–124
Nov 4 vs LAL L 103–116
Nov 2 at DAL W 115–100
Oct 31 at MEM L 105–136
Oct 29 at NOP L 120–132

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 20 2025-26 MIA at SAC MIA 130 – 117 SAC
Dec 6 2025-26 SAC at MIA SAC 127 – 111 MIA
Jan 6 2024-25 MIA at SAC MIA 118 – 123 SAC
Nov 4 2024-25 SAC at MIA SAC 111 – 110 MIA
Feb 26 2023-24 MIA at SAC MIA 121 – 110 SAC