The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 29

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–4@NOP 0–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 44 percent, NOP 56 percent. SAC Kings 44% proj. 120 · final 120 NOP Pelicans · home 56% proj. 122 · final 132
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 120 120 ±0
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 122 132 +10

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NOP

  • Home court+2.1 NOPWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.6 NOPElo NOP 1400, SAC 1340; season margin NOP −4.8, SAC −11.6.
  • Recent form+1.2 SACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NOP scores 112.1 and allows 117.3; SAC scores 111.7 and allows 121.0.
  • Rest and schedule+0.4 SACNOP 1 days of rest, SAC 2. NOP on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: NOP by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NOP is 0–4, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 122). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3.0 points per 100 possessions. Yves Missi and Jordan Poole are out (16 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC is 0–4, losing by 18 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 126). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +2.1, ball security −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Keegan Murray (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NOP; left favors SAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +1.6, Recent form −1.2, Rest and schedule −0.4, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, giving +2.4 for NOP. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +1.6 Recent form −1.2 Rest and schedule −0.4 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin +2.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.4. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSACNOPEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13401400 −0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +130 +1.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −11.6−4.8 +1.1
Games played this season 44 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.7112.1 +0.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.0117.3 −0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.8 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.015.5 +0.0
Rest days 21 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.1
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNOP ptsSAC ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)117.3+0.26+1.93−1.67
Season scoring margin (away)-11.6+0.81−0.83+1.64
Elo gap incl. home court130.1+0.68−0.86+1.54
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.0+1.38+0.08+1.30
Combined pace, last 10102.8+4.46+5.37−0.91
Elo rating (home)1399.9−0.08+0.71−0.79
Games played (away)4.0+0.12+0.80−0.68
Elo rating (away)1339.7+0.32−0.24+0.57
Season scoring margin (home)-4.8−0.31+0.25−0.56
Rotation points missing (home)15.5+0.45−0.00+0.45
Rotation points missing (away)7.0+0.07+0.49−0.42
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.7−0.04−0.41+0.38
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.1−0.34−0.01−0.33
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.03+0.24
Rest days (home)1.0−0.22+0.01−0.24
Games played (home)4.0+0.05+0.18−0.14
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.03−0.12
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.02−0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1340NOP14001.3 pts toward NOP

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1340

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 4 games: −29.6
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
  • LMEM112–123−14.2
  • L@SAS103–130−2.6

NOP1400

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 4 games: −24.1
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
Season scoring marginSAC−11.6NOP−4.80.3 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−11.6

Scores 107.8, allows 125.5 over 4 games: −17.8 a game.

20% this season (−17.8) + 80% last season (−10.0) = −11.6

NOP−4.8

Scores 116.2, allows 122.0 over 4 games: −5.8 a game.

20% this season (−5.8) + 80% last season (−4.5) = −4.8

Offensive rating, last 10SAC111.7NOP112.1no effect on the margin

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC111.7scored, −2.9 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.7%26.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210−0.2
Everything else−0.8

NOP112.1scored, −2.5 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2590.210+1.4
Everything else+1.8
Defensive rating, last 10SAC121.0NOP117.30.4 pts toward SAC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC121.0allowed, +6.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.210−0.6
Everything else−0.4

NOP117.3allowed, +2.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210−0.6
Everything else+1.0
Pace, last 10average 102.80.9 pts toward SAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 100.5 and NOP 105.1 → average 102.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0NOP15.5no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keegan Murray7.027.22

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

NOP15.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Yves Missi9.519.62
Jordan Poole6.015.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysNOP1 days0.4 pts toward SAC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 27 against SAS.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27@SAS103–13040-9313-3710-131313103.0130.0100.0
Oct 25MEM112–12344-9510-3314-221316113.1121.8100.0
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5
Apr 1@TOR123–11542-9212-3327-291319126.8117.397.5

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5
Apr 2@POR106–11838-849-2321-261912107.1116.8100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
NOP was the forecast favorite
10 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +12 for NOP
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
63rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACNOP
Final score120132
Field goals46–88 · 52.3%50–85 · 58.8%
Three-pointers12–37 · 32.4%10–29 · 34.5%
Free throws16–20 · 80.0%22–32 · 68.8%
Rebounds4038
Assists3132
Turnovers2520
Steals1118
Blocks26

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+2+12+10
Total points242252+10
SAC points120120±0
NOP points122132+10

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 at SAS L 103–130
Oct 25 vs MEM L 112–123
Oct 23 vs POR L 120–128
Oct 21 at LAC L 96–121
Apr 12 at POR L 110–122

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141
Oct 23 at UTA L 119–120
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123
Apr 12 at MIN L 126–132

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 3 2025-26 NOP at SAC NOP 113 – 117 SAC
Mar 5 2025-26 NOP at SAC NOP 133 – 123 SAC
Feb 9 2025-26 SAC at NOP SAC 94 – 120 NOP
Feb 13 2024-25 SAC at NOP SAC 133 – 140 NOP
Feb 12 2024-25 SAC at NOP SAC 119 – 111 NOP