The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 5

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors

Sunday, January 5, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

SAC 1–0@GSW 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 41 percent, GSW 59 percent. SAC Kings 41% proj. 114 · final 129 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 59% proj. 117 · final 99
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 114 129 +15
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 117 99 −18

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSACGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14941548
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +124
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.3+2.1
Games played this season 3534
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.7112.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.2115.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 27.328.2
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1494GSW1548

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1494

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1540 → started this one at 1530
  2. First 25 games: +3.8
  3. Last 10 games: −39.7
  • W@NOP111–109+3.3
  • LDEN129–130−4.3
  • LLAL100–113−17.6
  • LLAL99–103−8.2
  • LIND95–122−27.4
  • LDET113–114−6.2
  • L@LAL122–132−6.6
  • WDAL110–100+13.7
  • WPHI113–107+5.9
  • WMEM138–133+7.7

GSW1548

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 24 games: −5.7
  3. Last 10 games: −36.2
  • LDAL133–143−10.7
  • L@MEM93–144−28.1
  • W@MIN113–103+14.8
  • LIND105–111−11.3
  • LLAL113–115−7.0
  • L@LAC92–102−7.4
  • WPHX109–105+4.1
  • LCLE95–113−13.0
  • WPHI139–105+14.5
  • WMEM121–113+7.9
Season scoring marginSAC+1.3GSW+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC+1.3

Scores 115.4, allows 114.1 over 35 games: +1.3 a game.

GSW+2.1

Scores 112.6, allows 110.5 over 34 games: +2.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC111.7GSW112.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

SAC111.7scored, −0.9 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.2%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.5%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.6%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.195−0.1
Everything else+1.2

GSW112.4scored, −0.2 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.2%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.5%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%24.6%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1530.195−1.2
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10SAC114.2GSW115.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

SAC114.2allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.2%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.5%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.6%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.195−0.8
Everything else+1.2

GSW115.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.2%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.5%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%24.6%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.195+0.6
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 101.5 and GSW 99.5 → average 100.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC27.3GSW28.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC27.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
De'Aaron Fox27.337.510

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

GSW28.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jonathan Kuminga20.128.210
Brandin Podziemski8.121.97

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-05 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysGSW1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Jan 3 against MEM.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 4 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 3MEM138–13349-9921-4719-2398130.2122.0107.5
Jan 1PHI113–10741-849-3122-241713115.3108.198.5
Dec 30DAL110–10042-10010-3216-191512106.897.1103.0
Dec 28@LAL122–13250-9811-4011-15910124.5133.398.5
Dec 26DET113–11439-8214-3921-26146113.0114.0100.0
Dec 22IND95–12235-9612-3813-17101497.9125.897.0
Dec 21LAL99–10339-9010-3711-141310102.1105.197.5
Dec 19LAL100–11337-8211-2915-2215395.2107.6105.0
Dec 16DEN129–13049-10212-3519-201110118.3118.2109.5
Dec 12@NOP111–10937-9210-3327-291116113.3111.298.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 4MEM121–11344-8423-4310-16189122.2113.099.5
Jan 2PHI139–10553-8722-3911-15115140.4106.199.0
Dec 30CLE95–11333-999-3820-26141490.5107.6105.0
Dec 28PHX109–10541-9812-4515-191118112.4108.297.0
Dec 27@LAC92–10235-957-3815-20141994.8104.197.5
Dec 25LAL113–11541-8918-4513-171212118.9121.195.0
Dec 23IND105–11139-9012-3815-211111107.1111.099.0
Dec 21@MIN113–10340-8716-4217-231011116.5106.297.0
Dec 19@MEM93–14432-9012-3617-24171089.4137.1104.5
Dec 15DAL133–14349-10327-548-111015131.7141.6101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner
the forecast favored GSW
33 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −30 for GSW
237th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
29th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.90 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACGSW
Final score12999
Field goals45–87 · 51.7%37–81 · 45.7%
Three-pointers19–43 · 44.2%12–35 · 34.3%
Free throws20–22 · 90.9%13–18 · 72.2%
Rebounds4335
Assists3122
Turnovers1522
Steals1510
Blocks33

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+3−30−33
Total points231228−3
SAC points114129+15
GSW points11799−18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
SAC36393024–129
GSW21302424–99

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Jan 3 vs MEM W 138–133
Jan 1 vs PHI W 113–107
Dec 30 vs DAL W 110–100
Dec 28 at LAL L 122–132
Dec 26 vs DET L 113–114

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Jan 4 vs MEM W 121–113
Jan 2 vs PHI W 139–105
Dec 30 vs CLE L 95–113
Dec 28 vs PHX W 109–105
Dec 27 at LAC L 92–102

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 25 2023-24 SAC at GSW SAC 134 – 133 GSW
Nov 28 2023-24 GSW at SAC GSW 123 – 124 SAC
Nov 1 2023-24 SAC at GSW SAC 101 – 102 GSW
Oct 27 2023-24 GSW at SAC GSW 122 – 114 SAC
Apr 30 2022-23 GSW at SAC GSW 120 – 100 SAC