The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 5

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Sunday, February 5, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAC 3–2@NOP 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 72 percent, NOP 28 percent. SAC Kings 72% proj. 118 · final 104 NOP Pelicans · home 28% proj. 109 · final 136
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 118 104 −14
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 109 136 +27

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSACNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15291476
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +17
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.0+1.3
Games played this season 5154
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.2107.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.3117.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 26.142.0
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1529NOP1476

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1529

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
  2. First 41 games: +91.6
  3. Last 10 games: +24.9
  • W@SAS132–119+8.8
  • W@LAL116–111+8.1
  • WOKC118–113+5.7
  • LPHI127–129−5.0
  • WMEM133–100+28.0
  • LTOR95–113−23.5
  • L@MIN110–117−6.9
  • W@MIN118–111+10.5
  • W@SAS119–109+5.6
  • L@IND104–107−6.4

NOP1476

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. First 44 games: +50.5
  3. Last 10 games: −92.4
  • LMIA98–124−26.8
  • L@ORL110–123−15.5
  • L@MIA96–100−4.3
  • LDEN98–99−3.7
  • LMIN102–111−13.8
  • LWAS103–113−13.4
  • L@MIL110–135−11.3
  • L@DEN113–122−4.2
  • L@DAL106–111−5.0
  • WLAL131–126+5.6
Season scoring marginSAC+3.0NOP+1.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC+3.0

Scores 119.2, allows 116.2 over 51 games: +3.0 a game.

NOP+1.3

Scores 115.1, allows 113.8 over 54 games: +1.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC117.2NOP107.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

SAC117.2scored, +3.6 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%23.8%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.212+0.1
Everything else+0.1

NOP107.8scored, −5.8 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.5%−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.0%23.8%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.212−0.7
Everything else+0.7
Defensive rating, last 10SAC113.3NOP117.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

SAC113.3allowed, −0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.5%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1220.212+2.6
Everything else−0.2

NOP117.3allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.1%54.5%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.212−0.5
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 99.0 and NOP 99.0 → average 99.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingSAC26.1NOP42.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC26.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
De'Aaron Fox26.136.69

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

NOP42.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Brandon Ingram22.431.15
Jonas Valančiūnas14.122.110
Dyson Daniels5.525.54

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-05 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysNOP1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Feb 3 against IND.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 4 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 3@IND104–10737-8613-3817-201911100.0101.9104.5
Feb 1@SAS119–10948-908-2715-1996116.7107.9101.5
Jan 30@MIN118–11147-999-3015-221210107.3101.899.2
Jan 28@MIN110–11737-829-3327-36910112.2120.697.5
Jan 25TOR95–11335-7313-3212-13194101.1120.294.0
Jan 23MEM133–10049-8822-4013-142410127.995.2104.5
Jan 21PHI127–12946-8413-3322-2984129.6130.398.5
Jan 20OKC118–11341-8712-3824-281513119.2115.398.5
Jan 18@LAL116–11143-879-3021-271114122.1115.695.5
Jan 15@SAS132–11949-8914-3020-2557136.1124.096.5

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 4LAL131–12652-1009-3018-201014126.0121.2104.0
Feb 2@DAL106–11142-845-2017-211712109.3114.497.0
Jan 31@DEN113–12242-858-2721-25158111.9119.6101.5
Jan 29@MIL110–13541-9313-3415-21128105.8129.8104.0
Jan 28WAS103–11339-928-2917-19108102.0113.0100.5
Jan 25MIN102–11137-8512-3816-21148105.2114.497.0
Jan 24DEN98–9938-855-2617-201414107.7106.592.0
Jan 22@MIA96–10037-788-3014-1824896.0101.099.5
Jan 20@ORL110–12341-9110-3518-241011110.0124.299.5
Jan 18MIA98–12437-8013-3011-18189104.3129.295.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
41 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +32 for NOP
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
7th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACNOP
Final score104136
Field goals35–82 · 42.7%48–85 · 56.5%
Three-pointers11–42 · 26.2%14–26 · 53.8%
Free throws23–27 · 85.2%26–34 · 76.5%
Rebounds3848
Assists2326
Turnovers1510
Steals511
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−9+32+41
Total points227240+13
SAC points118104−14
NOP points109136+27

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Feb 3 at IND L 104–107
Feb 1 at SAS W 119–109
Jan 30 at MIN W 118–111
Jan 28 at MIN L 110–117
Jan 25 vs TOR L 95–113

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Feb 4 vs LAL W 131–126
Feb 2 at DAL L 106–111
Jan 31 at DEN L 113–122
Jan 29 at MIL L 110–135
Jan 28 vs WAS L 103–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 5 2021-22 NOP at SAC NOP 123 – 109 SAC
Mar 2 2021-22 SAC at NOP SAC 95 – 125 NOP
Nov 3 2021-22 NOP at SAC NOP 99 – 112 SAC
Oct 29 2021-22 SAC at NOP SAC 113 – 109 NOP