The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 20

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Monday, November 20, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAC 0–0@NOP 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 49 percent, NOP 51 percent. SAC Kings 49% proj. 116 · final 93 NOP Pelicans · home 51% proj. 114 · final 129
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 116 93 −23
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 114 129 +15

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 49% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSACNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15471498
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +21
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.5−1.6
Games played this season 1213
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.3113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.2116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.029.4
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1547NOP1498

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1547

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 2 games: +2.2
  3. Last 10 games: +21.7
  • WLAL132–127+6.2
  • L@GSW101–102−2.3
  • L@HOU89–107−21.1
  • L@HOU97–122−23.3
  • WPOR121–118+2.5
  • WOKC105–98+7.5
  • WCLE132–120+10.3
  • W@LAL125–110+18.7
  • W@SAS129–120+6.2
  • W@DAL129–113+17.0

NOP1498

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
  2. First 3 games: −4.9
  3. Last 10 games: −23.7
  • W@OKC110–106+8.1
  • WDET125–116+3.1
  • LATL105–123−19.6
  • L@DEN116–134−6.0
  • L@MIN101–122−10.9
  • L@HOU101–104−5.4
  • LDAL124–136−13.9
  • WDAL131–110+15.5
  • WDEN115–110+9.6
  • LMIN120–121−4.2
Season scoring marginSAC+2.5NOP−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC+2.5

Scores 117.0, allows 114.4 over 12 games: +2.6 a game.

60% this season (+2.6) + 40% last season (+2.3) = +2.5

NOP−1.6

Scores 112.1, allows 115.6 over 13 games: −3.5 a game.

65% this season (−3.5) + 35% last season (+1.9) = −1.6

Offensive rating, last 10SAC114.3NOP113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.0).

SAC114.3scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.1%+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.3%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%24.5%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.201−0.4
Everything else−1.5

NOP113.3scored, +0.3 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.1%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.3%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%24.5%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.201+0.5
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10SAC112.2NOP116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.0).

SAC112.2allowed, −0.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.1%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.3%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.1%24.5%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.201−0.1
Everything else−0.1

NOP116.5allowed, +3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.1%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.3%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%24.5%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.201−0.1
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 99.4 and NOP 101.5 → average 100.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingSAC0.0NOP29.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-20 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

NOP29.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
CJ McCollum25.035.13
Larry Nance Jr.4.415.67

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-20 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAC1 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 19 against DAL.

NOP2days

Last played Nov 18 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 19@DAL129–11348-9017-4016-211214134.4114.197.5
Nov 17@SAS129–12046-8518-4219-24134121.7112.1106.5
Nov 15@LAL125–11048-9616-4413-171511114.7100.9109.0
Nov 13CLE132–12049-8320-4214-22108137.5126.395.5
Nov 10OKC105–9838-9113-4716-211716105.099.099.5
Nov 8POR121–11841-8911-3728-382115111.0110.397.8
Nov 6@HOU97–12236-8114-4011-201312104.3131.293.0
Nov 4@HOU89–10732-8411-4114-1911894.7111.595.0
Nov 1@GSW101–10236-8811-3518-231214103.1105.297.5
Oct 29LAL132–12749-10417-4817-24106116.8111.4102.8

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18MIN120–12144-8612-2920-231713121.2121.099.5
Nov 17DEN115–11046-8812-2311-2194113.9111.1100.0
Nov 14DAL131–11049-9414-3819-261212126.0102.8105.5
Nov 12DAL124–13647-9217-3613-221813114.8125.9108.0
Nov 10@HOU101–10434-758-2525-34188104.1105.198.0
Nov 8@MIN101–12236-938-2821-22171199.0117.3103.0
Nov 6@DEN116–13445-9013-3013-15138114.9134.0100.5
Nov 4ATL105–12340-848-3117-2199109.4129.595.5
Nov 2DET125–11639-8014-3233-35127123.8116.0100.5
Nov 1@OKC110–10640-10213-4217-291022105.8101.9104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
51%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
NOP was the forecast favorite
38 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +36 for NOP
477th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
16th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACNOP
Final score93129
Field goals33–87 · 37.9%50–92 · 54.3%
Three-pointers11–45 · 24.4%12–28 · 42.9%
Free throws16–24 · 66.7%17–21 · 81.0%
Rebounds3655
Assists2738
Turnovers1310
Steals48
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−2+36+38
Total points230222−8
SAC points11693−23
NOP points114129+15

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
SAC31221624–93
NOP29373429–129

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Nov 19 at DAL W 129–113
Nov 17 at SAS W 129–120
Nov 15 at LAL W 125–110
Nov 13 vs CLE W 132–120
Nov 10 vs OKC W 105–98

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 vs MIN L 120–121
Nov 17 vs DEN W 115–110
Nov 14 vs DAL W 131–110
Nov 12 vs DAL L 124–136
Nov 10 at HOU L 101–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 4 2022-23 SAC at NOP SAC 121 – 103 NOP
Mar 6 2022-23 NOP at SAC NOP 108 – 123 SAC
Feb 5 2022-23 SAC at NOP SAC 104 – 136 NOP
Apr 5 2021-22 NOP at SAC NOP 123 – 109 SAC
Mar 2 2021-22 SAC at NOP SAC 95 – 125 NOP