The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

POR 1–0@SAC 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 64 percent, SAC 36 percent. POR Trail Blazers 64% proj. 117 · final 128 SAC Kings · home 36% proj. 112 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 117 128 +11
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 112 120 +8

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans POR

  • Home court+2.1 SACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.4 PORElo SAC 1363, POR 1533; season margin SAC −10.8, POR +1.1.
  • Recent form+1.2 PORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAC scores 113.0 and allows 121.5; POR scores 110.9 and allows 112.4.

Together: POR by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

POR is 1–0, winning by 41 a game on average (scoring 124, allowing 83). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.4. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.1.

SAC is 0–1, losing by 25 a game on average (scoring 96, allowing 121). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 31% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.4, shooting −1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAC; left favors POR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −6.4, Recent form −1.2, No playoff context +0.4, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving −5.1 for SAC. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −6.4 Recent form −1.2 No playoff context +0.4 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin −5.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.1. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPORSACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15331363 −0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −100 −4.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.1−10.8 −1.2
Games played this season 11 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.9113.0 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.4121.5 −1.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.9 −0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAC ptsPOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-100.2−1.39+3.42−4.81
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)121.5+0.41+1.67−1.26
Season scoring margin (home)-10.8−0.49+0.50−1.00
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.76−0.09+0.85
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.18+0.57−0.75
Elo rating (home)1362.6−0.19+0.50−0.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.9−0.04−0.41+0.37
Games played (home)1.0+0.72+0.39+0.33
Home series wins0.0+0.36+0.09+0.27
Games played (away)1.0+0.26+0.49−0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.0−0.31−0.12−0.19
Season scoring margin (away)1.1−0.03+0.15−0.18
Elo rating (away)1532.8+0.09−0.03+0.13
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.4−0.18−0.06−0.12
Series pressure0.0+0.07−0.01+0.07
Combined pace, last 1097.9−2.59−2.56−0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.02
Rest days (home)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1533SAC13635.4 pts toward POR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1533

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. This season's 1 game: +22.0
  • WPHX124–83+22.0

SAC1363

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 1 game: −6.8
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
Season scoring marginPOR+1.1SAC−10.81.1 pts toward POR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+1.1

Scores 124.0, allows 83.0 over 1 game: +41.0 a game.

5% this season (+41.0) + 95% last season (−1.0) = +1.1

SAC−10.8

Scores 96.0, allows 121.0 over 1 game: −25.0 a game.

5% this season (−25.0) + 95% last season (−10.0) = −10.8

Offensive rating, last 10POR110.9SAC113.00.2 pts toward SAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR110.9scored, −3.7 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210−0.6
Everything else+0.1

SAC113.0scored, −1.5 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.5%26.1%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210−0.5
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10POR112.4SAC121.51.4 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR112.4allowed, −2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else+0.7

SAC121.5allowed, +6.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.5%−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210−0.9
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 97.9no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.3 and SAC 98.5 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0SAC0.00.1 pts toward SAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysSAC2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 21 against PHX.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 21 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21PHX124–8345-9419-4715-181716126.586.597.0
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5
Apr 12SAC122–11047-10116-4612-151218123.2112.298.5
Apr 10LAC116–9737-8312-3930-351314122.1102.195.0
Apr 8@SAS101–11242-9312-375-101611100.0110.9101.0
Apr 6@DEN132–13742-8925-5223-281511125.7129.295.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5
Apr 1@TOR123–11542-9212-3327-291319126.8117.397.5
Mar 29@BKN99–11636-8410-3217-251511103.1122.195.5
Mar 28@ATL113–12345-9312-3211-131514116.5126.897.0
Mar 26@ORL117–12145-8814-3313-1699123.2128.794.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
POR was the forecast favorite
3 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −8 for SAC
87th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORSAC
Final score128120
Field goals46–96 · 47.9%42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers14–48 · 29.2%8–32 · 25.0%
Free throws22–30 · 73.3%28–30 · 93.3%
Rebounds4542
Assists3021
Turnovers914
Steals85
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)−5−8−3
Total points229248+19
POR points117128+11
SAC points112120+8

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs PHX W 124–83
Apr 28 at SAS L 95–114
Apr 26 vs SAS L 93–114
Apr 24 vs SAS L 108–120
Apr 21 at SAS W 106–103

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at LAC L 96–121
Apr 12 at POR L 110–122
Apr 10 vs GSW W 124–118
Apr 7 at GSW L 105–110
Apr 5 vs LAC L 109–138

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 SAC at POR SAC 110 – 122 POR
Jan 18 2025-26 POR at SAC POR 117 – 110 SAC
Dec 20 2025-26 POR at SAC POR 98 – 93 SAC
Dec 18 2025-26 SAC at POR SAC 133 – 134 POR
Mar 27 2024-25 POR at SAC POR 107 – 128 SAC