The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET

SAC 0–0@LAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 31 percent, LAC 69 percent. SAC Kings 31% proj. 111 · final 96 LAC Clippers · home 69% proj. 118 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 111 96 −15
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 118 121 +3

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAC

  • Home court+2.1 LACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.4 LACElo LAC 1529, SAC 1369; season margin LAC +1.1, SAC −10.0.
  • Recent form+0.8 LACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAC scores 116.0 and allows 113.8; SAC scores 113.0 and allows 123.7.

Together: LAC by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAC hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +1 team. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions.

SAC hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −10 team. Their offense rebounds 31% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAC; left favors SAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +4.4, Recent form +0.8, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule +0.1, Player availability −0.0, giving +7.6 for LAC. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +4.4 Recent form +0.8 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule +0.1 Player availability −0.0 Projected margin +7.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +7.6. The 69% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSACLACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13691529 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +230 +4.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.0+1.1 +1.3
Games played this season 00 −2.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.0116.0 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.7113.8 +1.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.1 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.0
Rest days 55 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAC ptsSAC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court229.7+1.81−2.78+4.59
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)123.7+1.66+0.20+1.46
Games played (away)0.0+0.20+1.62−1.42
Season scoring margin (away)-10.0+0.66−0.54+1.20
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.28+0.53−0.81
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.64−0.14+0.78
Combined pace, last 1098.1−2.25−1.53−0.72
Games played (home)0.0+0.72+1.35−0.63
Elo rating (away)1369.4+0.24−0.14+0.38
Home series wins0.0+0.36+0.03+0.33
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.0+0.16−0.07+0.23
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.0−0.16+0.03−0.18
Elo rating (home)1529.1−0.00−0.16+0.16
Rest days (home)5.0+0.05−0.09+0.14
Rest days (away)5.0−0.34−0.21−0.13
Season scoring margin (home)1.1+0.13+0.02+0.11
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.01+0.02
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.8+0.04+0.06−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1369LAC15295.1 pts toward LAC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1369

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. No games played yet this season.

LAC1529

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginSAC−10.0LAC+1.10.7 pts toward SAC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−10.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−10.0) = −10.0

LAC+1.1

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+1.1) = +1.1

Offensive rating, last 10SAC113.0LAC116.00.1 pts toward LAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC113.0scored, −1.6 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.8%26.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210−0.8
Everything else−0.7

LAC116.0scored, +1.4 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.0
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10SAC123.7LAC113.81.4 pts toward LAC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC123.7allowed, +9.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.5%−7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210−0.5
Everything else−2.0

LAC113.8allowed, −0.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210+0.4
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.10.7 pts toward SAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 97.9 and LAC 98.3 → average 98.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC0.0LAC0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestSAC5 daysLAC5 days0.1 pts toward LAC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC5days

Last played Apr 12 against POR (192 days, capped at 5).

LAC5days

Last played Apr 12 against GSW (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5
Apr 1@TOR123–11542-9212-3327-291319126.8117.397.5
Mar 29@BKN99–11636-8410-3217-251511103.1122.195.5
Mar 28@ATL113–12345-9312-3211-131514116.5126.897.0
Mar 26@ORL117–12145-8814-3313-1699123.2128.794.5
Mar 24@CHA90–13437-919-287-1112890.9138.198.0

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5
Mar 29@MIL127–11345-7713-3024-28167125.7111.9101.0
Mar 27@IND114–11341-9613-3419-271116115.2111.9100.0
Mar 25TOR119–9442-8216-3519-241010125.398.995.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
69%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner
LAC was the forecast favorite
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual +25 for LAC
100th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
35th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACLAC
Final score96121
Field goals36–85 · 42.4%43–82 · 52.4%
Three-pointers8–28 · 28.6%14–35 · 40.0%
Free throws16–28 · 57.1%21–31 · 67.7%
Rebounds4249
Assists2229
Turnovers1717
Steals1014
Blocks05

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)+7+25+18
Total points229217−12
SAC points11196−15
LAC points118121+3

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at POR L 110–122
Apr 10 vs GSW W 124–118
Apr 7 at GSW L 105–110
Apr 5 vs LAC L 109–138
Apr 3 vs NOP W 117–113

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116
Apr 8 vs OKC L 110–128
Apr 7 vs DAL W 116–103
Apr 5 at SAC W 138–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 5 2025-26 LAC at SAC LAC 138 – 109 SAC
Mar 14 2025-26 SAC at LAC SAC 118 – 109 LAC
Feb 6 2025-26 LAC at SAC LAC 114 – 111 SAC
Dec 30 2025-26 SAC at LAC SAC 90 – 131 LAC
Apr 11 2024-25 LAC at SAC LAC 101 – 100 SAC