The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–6@DAL 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 26 percent, DAL 74 percent. SAC Kings 26% proj. 114 · final 115 DAL Mavericks · home 74% proj. 123 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 114 115 +1
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 123 100 −23

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DAL

  • Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.5 DALElo DAL 1451, SAC 1321; season margin DAL −3.0, SAC −12.7.
  • Recent form+2.4 DALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DAL scores 115.0 and allows 114.8; SAC scores 108.0 and allows 122.5.

Together: DAL by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DAL is 4–2, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 112). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense is close to league average on all four factors. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.9, forcing turnovers −1.3. Kyrie Irving (21 ppg) is out.

SAC is 0–6, losing by 19 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 128). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Keegan Murray (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors SAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +4.5, Recent form +2.4, Player availability −0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.2, giving +9.1 for DAL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +4.5 Recent form +2.4 Player availability −0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.2 Projected margin +9.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.1. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSACDALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13211451 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +201 +3.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −12.7−3.0 +1.3
Games played this season 66 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.0115.0 +1.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 122.5114.8 +0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.0 +0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.021.4 −0.3
Rest days 23 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.1
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDAL ptsSAC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court200.7+2.03−1.54+3.57
Season scoring margin (away)-12.7+0.50−1.23+1.73
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)122.5+1.49+0.03+1.46
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.8+0.14+1.21−1.06
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.0−0.09−1.07+0.98
Games played (away)6.0+0.13+0.73−0.60
Combined pace, last 10102.0+3.43+2.84+0.59
Rotation points missing (away)7.0−0.03+0.53−0.56
Elo rating (away)1320.8+0.21−0.25+0.47
Season scoring margin (home)-3.0−0.24+0.22−0.47
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.0+0.33−0.07+0.40
Rotation points missing (home)21.4+0.36+0.08+0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.03+0.25
Rest days (home)3.0+0.14−0.02+0.16
Elo rating (home)1451.5−0.20−0.10−0.10
Games played (home)6.0−0.04+0.05−0.09
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.03+0.05
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.00+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1321DAL14513.9 pts toward DAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1321

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 6 games: −48.6
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
  • LMEM112–123−14.2
  • L@SAS103–130−2.6
  • L@NOP120–132−6.8
  • L@MEM105–136−12.2

DAL1451

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 6 games: +63.7
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7
  • W@MIA113–109+10.3
  • WOKC120–96+36.4
  • WHOU116–111+9.8
Season scoring marginSAC−12.7DAL−3.00.6 pts toward DAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−12.7

Scores 109.3, allows 128.3 over 6 games: −19.0 a game.

30% this season (−19.0) + 70% last season (−10.0) = −12.7

DAL−3.0

Scores 114.3, allows 111.8 over 6 games: +2.5 a game.

30% this season (+2.5) + 70% last season (−5.3) = −3.0

Offensive rating, last 10SAC108.0DAL115.01.4 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC108.0scored, −6.6 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210−0.2
Everything else−1.3

DAL115.0scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.210−0.7
Everything else±0.0
Defensive rating, last 10SAC122.5DAL114.80.4 pts toward DAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC122.5allowed, +7.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.5%−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%26.1%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.210−0.6
Everything else−0.9

DAL114.8allowed, +0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.5%+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.3%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210+0.4
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 102.00.6 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 102.5 and DAL 101.4 → average 102.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0DAL21.40.3 pts toward SAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keegan Murray7.027.22

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL21.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyrie Irving21.428.65

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysDAL3 days0.2 pts toward DAL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 31 against MEM.

DAL3days

Last played Oct 30 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@MEM105–13635-8611-3824-29137100.0128.3105.5
Oct 29@NOP120–13246-8812-3716-20257108.1118.9111.0
Oct 27@SAS103–13040-9313-3710-131313103.0130.0100.0
Oct 25MEM112–12344-9510-3314-221316113.1121.8100.0
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30HOU116–11142-8112-3320-271712116.0109.9100.5
Oct 28OKC120–9646-9716-4512-15915122.498.098.0
Oct 26@MIA113–10943-9414-4613-141613110.8105.8102.5
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
26%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner
the forecast favored DAL
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −15 for DAL
6th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
19th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACDAL
Final score115100
Field goals43–82 · 52.4%32–78 · 41.0%
Three-pointers19–43 · 44.2%7–33 · 21.2%
Free throws10–15 · 66.7%29–35 · 82.9%
Rebounds4235
Assists2519
Turnovers1716
Steals911
Blocks41

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)+9−15−24
Total points237215−22
SAC points114115+1
DAL points123100−23

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at MEM L 105–136
Oct 29 at NOP L 120–132
Oct 27 at SAS L 103–130
Oct 25 vs MEM L 112–123
Oct 23 vs POR L 120–128

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs HOU W 116–111
Oct 28 vs OKC W 120–96
Oct 26 at MIA W 113–109
Oct 24 vs SAS L 106–122
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 26 2025-26 SAC at DAL SAC 130 – 121 DAL
Jan 6 2025-26 DAL at SAC DAL 100 – 98 SAC
Dec 27 2025-26 DAL at SAC DAL 107 – 113 SAC
Mar 3 2024-25 SAC at DAL SAC 122 – 98 DAL
Feb 10 2024-25 SAC at DAL SAC 129 – 128 DAL