The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 8

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings

Sunday, December 8, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 2–1@SAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 23 percent, SAC 77 percent. UTA Jazz 23% proj. 109 · final 97 SAC Kings · home 77% proj. 120 · final 141
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 109 97 −12
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 120 141 +21

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputUTASAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13831522
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +210
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.0+1.5
Games played this season 2224
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.2113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.7114.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 14.30.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1383SAC1522

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1383

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
  2. First 12 games: −37.0
  3. Last 10 games: +22.7
  • L@LAC105–116−4.1
  • L@LAL118–124−2.3
  • L@SAS118–126−4.3
  • WNYK121–106+22.6
  • LSAS115–128−10.8
  • LDEN103–122−8.6
  • LDAL94–106−4.5
  • LLAL104–105−2.7
  • L@OKC106–133−2.8
  • W@POR141–99+40.2

SAC1522

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1540 → started this one at 1530
  2. First 14 games: +9.3
  3. Last 10 games: −17.1
  • LATL108–109−6.8
  • L@LAC88–104−10.8
  • LBKN103–108−12.1
  • LOKC109–130−12.5
  • W@MIN115–104+16.7
  • L@POR106–115−12.1
  • LSAS125–127−6.8
  • WHOU120–111+10.7
  • L@MEM110–115−5.2
  • W@SAS140–113+21.8
Season scoring marginUTA−8.0SAC+1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−8.0

Scores 109.7, allows 117.7 over 22 games: −8.0 a game.

SAC+1.5

Scores 115.4, allows 113.9 over 24 games: +1.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10UTA113.2SAC113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

UTA113.2scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.2%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)15.5%12.5%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%24.7%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.198−0.4
Everything else+0.8

SAC113.7scored, +1.0 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.2%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.5%±0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%24.7%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.198+0.1
Everything else+1.8
Defensive rating, last 10UTA117.7SAC114.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

UTA117.7allowed, +5.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.2%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)9.1%12.5%−4.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%24.7%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.198+0.0
Everything else+0.5

SAC114.4allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.2%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.5%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%24.7%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.198−0.7
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 99.2 and SAC 99.2 → average 99.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingUTA14.3SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA14.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jordan Clarkson14.326.63

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-08 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-08 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Dec 6 against POR.

SAC2days

Last played Dec 6 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 6@POR141–9953-9614-3221-231210134.395.2104.5
Dec 3@OKC106–13338-7013-3517-222911110.4137.196.5
Dec 1LAL104–10540-7914-4010-16158111.8112.993.0
Nov 30DAL94–10634-959-3917-21151896.9108.297.5
Nov 27DEN103–12238-9016-4311-181813108.4131.294.0
Nov 26SAS115–12843-8413-3516-202110113.9126.7101.0
Nov 23NYK121–10644-8719-3414-19189117.5103.9102.5
Nov 21@SAS118–12641-9813-4523-261412110.3116.7107.5
Nov 19@LAL118–12445-9012-3616-191411118.0124.0100.0
Nov 17@LAC105–11639-7912-4015-18189110.5120.895.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 6@SAS140–11351-9016-3422-24117135.9109.7103.0
Dec 5@MEM110–11539-988-3524-281313103.8107.5106.5
Dec 3HOU120–11147-9114-3012-20108127.7116.894.5
Dec 1SAS125–12747-10112-3219-241020126.3127.099.5
Nov 29@POR106–11535-7815-4221-282011109.3116.298.0
Nov 27@MIN115–10446-9412-3711-151610116.2104.099.5
Nov 25OKC109–13042-878-3217-23129111.2132.798.0
Nov 24BKN103–10837-779-2520-31169109.6113.794.5
Nov 22@LAC88–10432-837-3517-2415888.0104.0100.0
Nov 18ATL108–10937-8520-4614-19179109.1112.498.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
77%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner
SAC was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual +44 for SAC
1132nd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
29th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTASAC
Final score97141
Field goals31–80 · 38.8%57–100 · 57.0%
Three-pointers15–42 · 35.7%22–44 · 50.0%
Free throws20–21 · 95.2%5–8 · 62.5%
Rebounds3843
Assists2139
Turnovers208
Steals610
Blocks67

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+11+44+33
Total points229238+9
UTA points10997−12
SAC points120141+21

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
UTA23222923–97
SAC26364336–141

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Dec 6 at POR W 141–99
Dec 3 at OKC L 106–133
Dec 1 vs LAL L 104–105
Nov 30 vs DAL L 94–106
Nov 27 vs DEN L 103–122

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Dec 6 at SAS W 140–113
Dec 5 at MEM L 110–115
Dec 3 vs HOU W 120–111
Dec 1 vs SAS L 125–127
Nov 29 at POR L 106–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 16 2024-25 UTA at SAC UTA 117 – 121 SAC
Oct 29 2024-25 SAC at UTA SAC 113 – 96 UTA
Mar 31 2023-24 UTA at SAC UTA 106 – 127 SAC
Dec 16 2023-24 UTA at SAC UTA 104 – 125 SAC
Oct 25 2023-24 SAC at UTA SAC 130 – 114 UTA