2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings

Friday, April 10, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 1–3@SAC 7–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	117	118	+1
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	114	124	+10

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1435	1320
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−44
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.4	−10.2
Games played this season	80	80
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.0	114.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.7	125.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	17.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1435SAC1320

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1435

Ended last season at 1597 → started this one at 1573
First 70 games: −112.6
Last 10 games: −25.7

L@ATL110–126−7.3
W@DAL137–131+7.1
WBKN109–106+1.8
WWAS131–126+2.1
L@DEN93–116−7.2
LSAS113–127−5.0
LCLE111–118−6.0
LHOU116–117−3.0
WSAC110–105+3.1
LLAL103–119−11.3

SAC1320

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 70 games: −159.9
Last 10 games: −18.6

LPHI118–139−12.9
WBKN126–122+4.2
L@CHA90–134−4.4
L@ORL117–121−1.8
L@ATL113–123−2.4
L@BKN99–116−13.2
W@TOR123–115+20.4
WNOP117–113+6.6
LLAC109–138−12.0
L@GSW105–110−3.1

Season scoring marginGSW−0.4SAC−10.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−0.4

Scores 114.6, allows 115.1 over 80 games: −0.4 a game.

SAC−10.2

Scores 110.8, allows 121.0 over 80 games: −10.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.0SAC114.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

GSW113.0scored, −1.7 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.6%	+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.0%	12.2%	−4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	26.0%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.209	−0.0
Everything else			+0.4

SAC114.4scored, −0.4 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.6%	−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.8%	26.0%	+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.180	0.209	−0.8
Everything else			−1.3

Defensive rating, last 10GSW119.7SAC125.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

GSW119.7allowed, +4.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	61.2%	54.6%	−9.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	26.0%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.209	+1.3
Everything else			+0.8

SAC125.8allowed, +11.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.1%	54.6%	−8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	26.0%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.209	−0.3
Everything else			−1.2

Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.8 and SAC 97.8 → average 98.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0SAC17.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC17.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
DeMar DeRozan	17.0	27.7	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysSAC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 9 against LAL.

SAC3days

Last played Apr 7 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	LAL	103–119	41-81	9-30	12-12	19	9	112.0	129.3	92.0
Apr 7	SAC	110–105	37-82	17-38	19-24	17	10	114.6	111.7	95.0
Apr 5	HOU	116–117	42-84	14-40	18-20	10	6	123.4	124.5	94.0
Apr 2	CLE	111–118	41-94	12-44	17-20	12	12	109.9	116.8	101.0
Apr 1	SAS	113–127	42-86	14-35	15-18	13	2	111.9	125.7	101.0
Mar 29	@DEN	93–116	35-83	14-42	9-11	13	7	100.0	124.7	93.0
Mar 27	WAS	131–126	44-85	19-44	24-31	12	9	126.0	121.2	104.0
Mar 25	BKN	109–106	36-68	9-27	28-36	26	7	105.8	103.9	102.5
Mar 23	@DAL	137–131	51-101	17-47	18-24	24	16	119.1	115.9	103.2
Mar 21	@ATL	110–126	41-82	15-42	13-17	21	5	107.8	123.5	102.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	@GSW	105–110	41-87	11-31	12-17	14	13	111.7	114.6	95.0
Apr 5	LAC	109–138	45-85	9-32	10-20	20	11	105.8	135.3	102.5
Apr 3	NOP	117–113	46-90	10-33	15-20	14	11	118.2	115.3	98.5
Apr 1	@TOR	123–115	42-92	12-33	27-29	13	19	126.8	117.3	97.5
Mar 29	@BKN	99–116	36-84	10-32	17-25	15	11	103.1	122.1	95.5
Mar 28	@ATL	113–123	45-93	12-32	11-13	15	14	116.5	126.8	97.0
Mar 26	@ORL	117–121	45-88	14-33	13-16	9	9	123.2	128.7	94.5
Mar 24	@CHA	90–134	37-91	9-28	7-11	12	8	90.9	138.1	98.0
Mar 22	BKN	126–122	43-82	14-27	26-34	16	13	134.0	127.1	95.0
Mar 19	PHI	118–139	43-89	12-32	20-29	13	14	113.5	132.4	104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

42%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored GSW

9 pts

margin miss

forecast −3, actual +6 for SAC

231st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

656th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	SAC
Final score	118	124
Field goals	39–81 · 48.1%	41–89 · 46.1%
Three-pointers	14–36 · 38.9%	17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws	26–28 · 92.9%	25–34 · 73.5%
Rebounds	36	49
Assists	30	25
Turnovers	16	16
Steals	12	10
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−3	+6	+9
Total points	231	242	+11
GSW points	117	118	+1
SAC points	114	124	+10

Recent form before this game