The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–5@MEM 5–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 41 percent, MEM 59 percent. SAC Kings 41% proj. 119 · final 105 MEM Grizzlies · home 59% proj. 122 · final 136
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 119 105 −14
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 122 136 +14

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MEM

  • Home court+2.1 MEMWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.2 MEMElo MEM 1408, SAC 1333; season margin MEM −1.6, SAC −11.7.
  • Recent form+1.5 SACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MEM scores 111.9 and allows 117.8; SAC scores 109.8 and allows 121.2.

Together: MEM by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MEM is 5–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 106). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.0, getting to the line −1.2. Their defense lets opponents rebound 39% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −3. Quinten Post (8 ppg) is out.

SAC is 0–5, losing by 17 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 127). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.6, offensive rebounding +1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Keegan Murray (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MEM; left favors SAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +2.2, Recent form −1.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +3.1 for MEM. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +2.2 Recent form −1.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +3.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.1. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSACMEMEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13331408 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +145 +1.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −11.7−1.6 +1.0
Games played this season 55 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.8111.9 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.2117.8 −0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.6 −1.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.07.6 +0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMEM ptsSAC ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)117.8+0.18+2.27−2.10
Elo gap incl. home court144.7+0.80−0.81+1.62
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.2+1.49+0.08+1.41
Season scoring margin (away)-11.7+0.59−0.79+1.39
Combined pace, last 10102.6+4.36+5.45−1.09
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.8−0.06−0.70+0.64
Games played (away)5.0+0.20+0.82−0.62
Elo rating (away)1333.0+0.27−0.25+0.52
Rotation points missing (home)7.6+0.46−0.02+0.48
Rotation points missing (away)7.0+0.07+0.51−0.44
Season scoring margin (home)-1.6−0.13+0.22−0.35
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)111.9−0.38−0.03−0.34
Elo rating (home)1407.7−0.10+0.21−0.31
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.03+0.24
Games played (home)5.0−0.05+0.04−0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1333MEM14081.8 pts toward MEM

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1333

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 5 games: −36.4
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
  • LMEM112–123−14.2
  • L@SAS103–130−2.6
  • L@NOP120–132−6.8

MEM1408

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 5 games: +78.1
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2
  • W@SAC123–112+14.2
  • W@UTA110–105+7.8
  • W@POR124–103+34.1
Season scoring marginSAC−11.7MEM−1.60.3 pts toward MEM

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−11.7

Scores 110.2, allows 126.8 over 5 games: −16.6 a game.

25% this season (−16.6) + 75% last season (−10.0) = −11.7

MEM−1.6

Scores 118.2, allows 106.2 over 5 games: +12.0 a game.

25% this season (+12.0) + 75% last season (−6.1) = −1.6

Offensive rating, last 10SAC109.8MEM111.90.3 pts toward MEM

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.210−0.5
Everything else−1.0

MEM111.9scored, −2.7 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.6%26.1%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1690.210−1.2
Everything else+2.2
Defensive rating, last 10SAC121.2MEM117.80.7 pts toward SAC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC121.2allowed, +6.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.3%54.5%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else−1.0

MEM117.8allowed, +3.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)38.9%26.1%−5.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210+0.1
Everything else+4.7
Pace, last 10average 102.61.1 pts toward SAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 101.8 and MEM 103.5 → average 102.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0MEM7.6no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keegan Murray7.027.22

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MEM7.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Quinten Post7.615.15

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysMEM2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 29 against NOP.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 29 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29@NOP120–13246-8812-3716-20257108.1118.9111.0
Oct 27@SAS103–13040-9313-3710-131313103.0130.0100.0
Oct 25MEM112–12344-9510-3314-221316113.1121.8100.0
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29@POR124–10347-10218-4212-121015121.6101.0102.0
Oct 26@UTA110–10537-8516-3720-22126110.0104.0100.5
Oct 25@SAC123–11242-9615-4124-271219121.8113.1100.0
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
MEM was the forecast favorite
28 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +31 for MEM
70th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
9th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACMEM
Final score105136
Field goals35–86 · 40.7%47–85 · 55.3%
Three-pointers11–38 · 28.9%19–38 · 50.0%
Free throws24–29 · 82.8%23–27 · 85.2%
Rebounds3345
Assists2530
Turnovers1317
Steals95
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+3+31+28
Total points241241±0
SAC points119105−14
MEM points122136+14

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 at NOP L 120–132
Oct 27 at SAS L 103–130
Oct 25 vs MEM L 112–123
Oct 23 vs POR L 120–128
Oct 21 at LAC L 96–121

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 at POR W 124–103
Oct 26 at UTA W 110–105
Oct 25 at SAC W 123–112
Oct 23 at GSW W 111–108
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 25 2026-27 MEM at SAC MEM 123 – 112 SAC
Feb 23 2025-26 SAC at MEM SAC 123 – 114 MEM
Feb 4 2025-26 MEM at SAC MEM 129 – 125 SAC
Nov 30 2025-26 MEM at SAC MEM 115 – 107 SAC
Nov 20 2025-26 SAC at MEM SAC 96 – 137 MEM