2022-23 · Regular Season · Final
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers
Wednesday, March 29, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded
SAC 3–3@POR 8–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | 127 | 120 | −7 |
| POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) | 116 | 80 | −36 |
Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | SAC | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1551 | 1357 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −123 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.4 | −2.5 |
| Games played this season | 75 | 75 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 120.3 | 106.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 120.5 | 120.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 96.1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingSAC1551POR1357
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
SAC1551
- Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
- First 65 games: +136.6
- Last 10 games: +1.8
- W@PHX128–119+13.6
- LMIL124–133−9.2
- W@CHI117–114+6.3
- W@BKN101–96+7.8
- W@WAS132–118+12.1
- L@UTA120–128−10.8
- LBOS109–132−19.7
- WPHX135–127+6.5
- WUTA121–113+4.0
- LMIN115–119−8.8
POR1357
- Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
- First 65 games: +112.4
- Last 10 games: −67.0
- L@BOS93–115−5.6
- L@PHI119–120−1.1
- L@NOP110–127−9.4
- LNYK107–123−9.2
- LBOS112–126−7.0
- LLAC102–117−10.7
- W@UTA127–115+19.0
- LCHI96–124−17.0
- LOKC112–118−6.2
- LNOP90–124−19.8
Season scoring marginSAC+2.4POR−2.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
SAC+2.4
Scores 121.0, allows 118.5 over 75 games: +2.4 a game.
POR−2.5
Scores 113.8, allows 116.3 over 75 games: −2.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10SAC120.3POR106.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).
SAC120.3scored, +6.2 vs league
| Factor | SAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.2% | 54.7% | +2.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.5% | 12.0% | +3.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.5% | 23.8% | −1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.246 | 0.212 | +1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
POR106.3scored, −7.8 vs league
| Factor | POR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.3% | 54.7% | −5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 18.2% | 23.8% | −2.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.220 | 0.212 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
Defensive rating, last 10SAC120.5POR120.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).
SAC120.5allowed, +6.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.0% | 54.7% | −3.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.5% | 12.0% | −3.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.3% | 23.8% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.210 | 0.212 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
POR120.0allowed, +5.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.2% | 54.7% | −5.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.0% | −0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.4% | 23.8% | −1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.238 | 0.212 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +1.8 |
Pace, last 10average 100.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
SAC 99.8 and POR 100.7 → average 100.2 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingSAC0.0POR96.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
SAC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
POR96.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 29.8 | 36.1 | 6 |
| Anfernee Simons | 21.2 | 32.1 | 5 |
| Jerami Grant | 14.7 | 31.3 | 3 |
| Trendon Watford | 12.0 | 28.1 | 8 |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 10.7 | 23.6 | 7 |
| Cam Reddish | 7.7 | 25.3 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-29 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestSAC2 daysPOR2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
SAC2days
Last played Mar 27 against MIN.
POR2days
Last played Mar 27 against NOP.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
SAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | MIN | 115–119 | 39-84 | 5-27 | 32-40 | 10 | 12 | 119.8 | 124.0 | 96.0 |
| Mar 25 | UTA | 121–113 | 44-95 | 16-43 | 17-21 | 8 | 14 | 121.0 | 113.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 24 | PHX | 135–127 | 47-89 | 13-39 | 28-32 | 4 | 5 | 139.2 | 128.3 | 98.0 |
| Mar 21 | BOS | 109–132 | 39-81 | 17-44 | 14-21 | 14 | 10 | 114.7 | 140.4 | 94.5 |
| Mar 20 | @UTA | 120–128 | 41-97 | 19-52 | 19-25 | 6 | 8 | 114.3 | 124.3 | 104.0 |
| Mar 18 | @WAS | 132–118 | 48-86 | 22-37 | 14-23 | 8 | 7 | 130.7 | 119.2 | 100.0 |
| Mar 16 | @BKN | 101–96 | 32-82 | 13-41 | 24-32 | 12 | 13 | 107.4 | 104.3 | 93.0 |
| Mar 15 | @CHI | 117–114 | 38-78 | 18-42 | 23-29 | 19 | 5 | 113.6 | 109.6 | 103.5 |
| Mar 13 | MIL | 124–133 | 46-104 | 21-50 | 11-15 | 9 | 15 | 121.6 | 130.4 | 102.0 |
| Mar 11 | @PHX | 128–119 | 41-85 | 15-35 | 31-37 | 15 | 8 | 120.8 | 111.2 | 106.5 |
POR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | NOP | 90–124 | 35-90 | 7-33 | 13-15 | 12 | 6 | 90.9 | 124.0 | 99.5 |
| Mar 26 | OKC | 112–118 | 39-82 | 14-32 | 20-27 | 18 | 8 | 109.8 | 116.8 | 101.5 |
| Mar 24 | CHI | 96–124 | 37-86 | 6-31 | 16-18 | 12 | 8 | 100.0 | 126.5 | 97.0 |
| Mar 22 | @UTA | 127–115 | 45-93 | 13-41 | 24-30 | 8 | 7 | 119.8 | 108.5 | 106.0 |
| Mar 19 | LAC | 102–117 | 37-82 | 6-29 | 22-24 | 13 | 11 | 106.3 | 120.6 | 96.5 |
| Mar 17 | BOS | 112–126 | 38-79 | 14-38 | 22-31 | 18 | 8 | 110.9 | 123.5 | 101.5 |
| Mar 14 | NYK | 107–123 | 38-99 | 17-45 | 14-18 | 10 | 11 | 107.0 | 120.6 | 101.0 |
| Mar 12 | @NOP | 110–127 | 43-88 | 10-33 | 14-20 | 17 | 10 | 103.8 | 121.0 | 105.5 |
| Mar 10 | @PHI | 119–120 | 42-80 | 15-36 | 20-30 | 9 | 5 | 124.0 | 126.3 | 95.5 |
| Mar 8 | @BOS | 93–115 | 30-82 | 11-39 | 22-27 | 15 | 6 | 90.3 | 111.7 | 103.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2022-23 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | SAC | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 120 | 80 |
| Field goals | 42–92 · 45.7% | 30–93 · 32.3% |
| Three-pointers | 18–48 · 37.5% | 9–39 · 23.1% |
| Free throws | 18–24 · 75.0% | 11–12 · 91.7% |
| Rebounds | 59 | 45 |
| Assists | 30 | 18 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 14 |
| Steals | 9 | 5 |
| Blocks | 4 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Portland Trail Blazers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (POR) | −11 | −40 | −29 |
| Total points | 243 | 200 | −43 |
| SAC points | 127 | 120 | −7 |
| POR points | 116 | 80 | −36 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23 2022-23 | POR at SAC | POR 116 – 133 SAC |
| Oct 19 2022-23 | POR at SAC | POR 115 – 108 SAC |
| Jan 9 2021-22 | SAC at POR | SAC 88 – 103 POR |
| Nov 24 2021-22 | POR at SAC | POR 121 – 125 SAC |
| Oct 20 2021-22 | SAC at POR | SAC 124 – 121 POR |