2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

LAL 6–2@SAC 1–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	124	116	−8
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	112	103	−9

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

77%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

LAL was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast −12, actual −13 for SAC

129th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	SAC
Final score	116	103
Field goals	35–78 · 44.9%	35–90 · 38.9%
Three-pointers	12–38 · 31.6%	12–38 · 31.6%
Free throws	34–38 · 89.5%	21–28 · 75.0%
Rebounds	38	46
Assists	20	23
Turnovers	11	17
Steals	11	6
Blocks	13	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−12	−13	−1
Total points	236	219	−17
LAL points	124	116	−8
SAC points	112	103	−9

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.