The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 7

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, February 7, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 1–0@SAC 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 18 percent, SAC 82 percent. DET Pistons 18% proj. 111 · final 133 SAC Kings · home 82% proj. 127 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 111 133 +22
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 127 120 −7

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 16.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12431534
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +361
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.7+0.5
Games played this season 4949
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.5117.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.2117.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.30.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1243SAC1534

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1243

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
  2. First 39 games: −125.3
  3. Last 10 games: +41.3
  • W@WAS129–117+22.1
  • LMIN117–124−1.7
  • LMIL135–141−1.9
  • LMIL113–122−2.4
  • WCHA113–106+8.8
  • LWAS104–118−12.4
  • WOKC120–104+36.9
  • L@CLE121–128−0.9
  • LLAC125–136−2.1
  • LORL99–111−5.1

SAC1534

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 39 games: −14.1
  3. Last 10 games: +25.0
  • L@PHX117–119−3.5
  • LIND121–126−8.0
  • WATL122–107+7.5
  • W@GSW134–133+4.8
  • W@DAL120–115+7.6
  • W@MEM103–94+10.5
  • L@MIA106–115−9.1
  • W@IND133–122+15.0
  • W@CHI123–115+9.8
  • L@CLE110–136−9.6
Season scoring marginDET−9.7SAC+0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−9.7

Scores 112.6, allows 122.3 over 49 games: −9.7 a game.

SAC+0.5

Scores 118.3, allows 117.8 over 49 games: +0.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET117.5SAC117.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

DET117.5scored, +2.2 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.9%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.5%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.4%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.203+0.0
Everything else+0.2

SAC117.4scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.5%54.9%+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.5%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.6%24.4%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.203−0.7
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10DET120.2SAC117.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

DET120.2allowed, +4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.9%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)8.6%11.5%−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%24.4%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.203+0.2
Everything else+1.2

SAC117.0allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.9%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.5%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.2%24.4%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.203+0.1
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 100.2 and SAC 101.2 → average 100.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDET13.3SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Isaiah Stewart13.330.36

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-07 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-07 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Feb 4 against ORL.

SAC2days

Last played Feb 5 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 4ORL99–11136-808-3119-22159105.3116.894.5
Feb 2LAC125–13645-8917-4018-241613125.0136.0100.0
Jan 31@CLE121–12845-8116-3115-19177122.2130.698.5
Jan 28OKC120–10447-9511-2615-19915123.7106.197.5
Jan 27WAS104–11837-859-3221-271711102.0115.7102.0
Jan 24CHA113–10643-8615-3812-20115114.1108.298.5
Jan 22MIL113–12240-8910-3023-29106109.7117.3103.5
Jan 20MIL135–14144-9421-3726-3289123.9129.4109.0
Jan 17MIN117–12446-8912-3113-19128117.0121.6101.0
Jan 15@WAS129–11750-9012-3117-231512131.6120.697.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 5@CLE110–13643-9317-447-121210112.2137.498.5
Feb 3@CHI123–11542-8415-3924-29164116.0108.5106.0
Feb 2@IND133–12251-9013-3418-28169120.9110.9110.0
Jan 31@MIA106–11541-9312-4012-18912109.3118.697.0
Jan 29@MEM103–9443-8411-386-101911106.296.997.0
Jan 27@DAL120–11543-8011-3023-30136120.0115.0100.0
Jan 25@GSW134–13348-9122-4816-19108136.7137.197.5
Jan 22ATL122–10743-9312-3824-27810118.4103.9103.0
Jan 18IND121–12644-8515-3718-32118121.0126.0100.0
Jan 16@PHX117–11946-9218-407-12145113.6115.5103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
18%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
29 pts
margin miss
forecast +16, actual −13 for SAC
2nd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
62nd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.70 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETSAC
Final score133120
Field goals47–84 · 56.0%45–95 · 47.4%
Three-pointers17–31 · 54.8%15–44 · 34.1%
Free throws22–22 · 100.0%15–22 · 68.2%
Rebounds4833
Assists3231
Turnovers114
Steals27
Blocks26

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+16−13−29
Total points238253+15
DET points111133+22
SAC points127120−7

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DET31392736–133
SAC36273621–120

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Feb 4 vs ORL L 99–111
Feb 2 vs LAC L 125–136
Jan 31 at CLE L 121–128
Jan 28 vs OKC W 120–104
Jan 27 vs WAS L 104–118

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Feb 5 at CLE L 110–136
Feb 3 at CHI W 123–115
Feb 2 at IND W 133–122
Jan 31 at MIA L 106–115
Jan 29 at MEM W 103–94

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 9 2023-24 SAC at DET SAC 131 – 110 DET
Dec 16 2022-23 SAC at DET SAC 122 – 113 DET
Nov 20 2022-23 DET at SAC DET 129 – 137 SAC
Jan 19 2021-22 DET at SAC DET 133 – 131 SAC
Nov 15 2021-22 SAC at DET SAC 129 – 107 DET