2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings

Monday, February 26, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIA 2–1@SAC 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIA Miami Heat	113	121	+8
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	122	110	−12

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIA	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1556	1554
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+68
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.4	+0.8
Games played this season	56	56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.5	118.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	106.7	117.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	75.3	0.0
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1556SAC1554

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1556

Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
First 46 games: −87.7
Last 10 games: +68.6

LPHX105–118−12.5
WSAC115–106+9.1
W@WAS110–102+6.3
LLAC95–103−5.9
WORL121–95+16.8
WSAS116–104+3.3
LBOS106–110−4.0
W@MIL123–97+30.6
W@PHI109–104+7.7
W@NOP106–95+17.2

SAC1554

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
First 46 games: −4.2
Last 10 games: +34.9

W@IND133–122+15.0
W@CHI123–115+9.8
L@CLE110–136−9.6
LDET120–133−30.6
WDEN135–106+25.9
L@OKC113–127−7.2
L@PHX125–130−4.0
W@DEN102–98+9.9
WSAS127–122+1.9
W@LAC123–107+23.8

Season scoring marginMIA+0.4SAC+0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA+0.4

Scores 110.5, allows 110.1 over 56 games: +0.4 a game.

SAC+0.8

Scores 118.6, allows 117.8 over 56 games: +0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIA113.5SAC118.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MIA113.5scored, −1.6 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.9%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.6%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.4%	24.3%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.200	−0.1
Everything else			+0.1

SAC118.6scored, +3.5 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.9%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.6%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.2%	24.3%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.200	−1.0
Everything else			+0.1

Defensive rating, last 10MIA106.7SAC117.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MIA106.7allowed, −8.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.9%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	11.6%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.5%	24.3%	+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.149	0.200	+1.5
Everything else			−0.1

SAC117.5allowed, +2.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	54.9%	−4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.6%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.3%	24.3%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.200	−0.7
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 97.3 and SAC 102.0 → average 99.6 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMIA75.3SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA75.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jimmy Butler III	23.6	34.1	7
Tyler Herro	18.3	32.3	9
Terry Rozier	14.3	29.8	7
Josh Richardson	11.6	24.3	7
Nikola Jović	7.5	16.9	4

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-26 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIA3 daysSAC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA3days

Last played Feb 23 against NOP.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 25 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	@NOP	106–95	38-82	13-29	17-25	14	10	109.3	99.0	96.5
Feb 14	@PHI	109–104	42-88	11-35	14-15	13	10	113.5	108.3	96.0
Feb 13	@MIL	123–97	45-87	19-40	14-18	14	7	121.8	96.0	101.0
Feb 11	BOS	106–110	40-97	12-40	14-15	7	14	116.5	120.9	91.0
Feb 7	SAS	116–104	43-87	12-38	18-23	10	5	111.5	102.0	103.0
Feb 6	ORL	121–95	47-87	13-36	14-18	13	11	123.5	97.9	97.5
Feb 4	LAC	95–103	38-91	8-30	11-12	10	12	100.0	108.4	95.0
Feb 2	@WAS	110–102	38-88	7-31	27-35	12	14	111.1	102.0	99.5
Jan 31	SAC	115–106	42-84	13-28	18-23	8	7	118.6	109.3	97.0
Jan 29	PHX	105–118	33-84	14-36	25-25	11	8	109.4	122.9	96.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 25	@LAC	123–107	45-91	15-37	18-22	10	14	130.9	115.1	93.5
Feb 22	SAS	127–122	52-93	13-33	10-14	10	7	124.5	120.8	101.5
Feb 14	@DEN	102–98	39-89	9-33	15-19	14	10	100.0	97.0	101.5
Feb 13	@PHX	125–130	49-95	9-31	18-24	13	15	120.2	122.6	105.0
Feb 11	@OKC	113–127	44-90	16-42	9-13	18	10	113.0	127.0	100.0
Feb 9	DEN	135–106	51-87	17-34	16-18	16	6	131.1	102.9	103.0
Feb 7	DET	120–133	45-95	15-44	15-22	4	5	117.6	133.0	101.0
Feb 5	@CLE	110–136	43-93	17-44	7-12	12	10	112.2	137.4	98.5
Feb 3	@CHI	123–115	42-84	15-39	24-29	16	4	116.0	108.5	106.0
Feb 2	@IND	133–122	51-90	13-34	18-28	16	9	120.9	110.9	110.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

28%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

20 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −11 for SAC

23rd

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

188th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIA	SAC
Final score	121	110
Field goals	45–87 · 51.7%	45–85 · 52.9%
Three-pointers	11–30 · 36.7%	13–32 · 40.6%
Free throws	20–25 · 80.0%	7–12 · 58.3%
Rebounds	39	41
Assists	27	30
Turnovers	11	15
Steals	12	10
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+9	−11	−20
Total points	235	231	−4
MIA points	113	121	+8
SAC points	122	110	−12

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
MIA	32	33	36	20	–	121
SAC	33	29	19	29	–	110

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Feb 23	at NOP	W 106–95
Feb 14	at PHI	W 109–104
Feb 13	at MIL	W 123–97
Feb 11	vs BOS	L 106–110
Feb 7	vs SAS	W 116–104

Sacramento Kings

Date	Opponent	Result
Feb 25	at LAC	W 123–107
Feb 22	vs SAS	W 127–122
Feb 14	at DEN	W 102–98
Feb 13	at PHX	L 125–130
Feb 11	at OKC	L 113–127

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 31 2023-24	SAC at MIA	SAC 106 – 115 MIA
Nov 2 2022-23	SAC at MIA	SAC 107 – 110 MIA
Oct 29 2022-23	MIA at SAC	MIA 113 – 119 SAC
Mar 28 2021-22	SAC at MIA	SAC 100 – 123 MIA
Jan 2 2021-22	MIA at SAC	MIA 113 – 115 SAC