2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat

Wednesday, December 4, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–0@MIA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	106	93	−13
MIA Miami Heat (home)	111	134	+23

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1509	1513
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+75
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.5	−0.7
Games played this season	21	18
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.9	112.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.6	111.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	14.1	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1509MIA1513

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1509

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
First 11 games: −17.0
Last 10 games: −26.9

W@SAS120–115+6.8
W@NOP104–99+6.4
WUTA124–118+2.3
LORL118–119−5.2
LDEN102–127−21.6
L@PHX100–127−14.9
W@SAS119–101+18.0
LOKC93–101−6.6
W@UTA105–104+2.7
L@MIN80–109−14.8

MIA1513

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 8 games: −28.3
Last 10 games: +9.8

L@DET121–123−5.8
W@IND124–111+18.0
L@IND110–119−7.0
WPHI106–89+7.6
WDAL123–118+8.2
LMIL103–106−7.7
W@CHA98–94+4.7
WTOR121–111+3.9
L@TOR116–119−7.4
L@BOS89–108−4.7

Season scoring marginLAL−2.5MIA−0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL−2.5

Scores 112.3, allows 114.9 over 21 games: −2.5 a game.

MIA−0.7

Scores 109.7, allows 110.5 over 18 games: −0.8 a game.

90% this season (−0.8) + 10% last season (+0.8) = −0.7

Offensive rating, last 10LAL109.9MIA112.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

LAL109.9scored, −2.7 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.1%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.5%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	24.8%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.198	−0.2
Everything else			−0.9

MIA112.3scored, −0.4 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.1%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	12.5%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.8%	24.8%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.198	+0.3
Everything else			+0.7

Defensive rating, last 10LAL115.6MIA111.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

LAL115.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.1%	−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.5%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.4%	24.8%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.152	0.198	+1.3
Everything else			+0.3

MIA111.3allowed, −1.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.1%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.5%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	24.8%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.156	0.198	+1.2
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 96.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 96.8 and MIA 96.9 → average 96.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL14.1MIA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL14.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Austin Reaves	14.1	32.8	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-04 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Dec 2 against MIN.

MIA2days

Last played Dec 2 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 2	@MIN	80–109	32-79	6-31	10-14	20	7	82.5	112.4	97.0
Dec 1	@UTA	105–104	39-88	7-33	20-25	5	9	112.9	111.8	93.0
Nov 29	OKC	93–101	33-73	11-38	16-21	17	8	98.9	109.8	93.0
Nov 27	@SAS	119–101	48-90	13-34	10-10	13	10	124.0	105.2	96.0
Nov 26	@PHX	100–127	37-85	8-34	18-25	12	7	97.1	123.3	103.0
Nov 23	DEN	102–127	39-88	13-36	11-14	15	6	100.0	125.7	101.5
Nov 21	ORL	118–119	44-87	13-31	17-26	10	7	120.4	122.7	97.5
Nov 19	UTA	124–118	42-76	14-31	26-36	14	6	124.0	118.0	100.0
Nov 16	@NOP	104–99	39-89	12-40	14-18	11	17	115.6	108.8	90.5
Nov 15	@SAS	120–115	44-88	14-31	18-23	10	10	123.7	118.6	97.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 2	@BOS	89–108	31-87	8-35	19-23	10	11	91.8	112.5	96.5
Dec 1	@TOR	116–119	39-88	15-40	23-28	14	12	114.9	117.8	101.0
Nov 29	TOR	121–111	43-94	21-54	14-17	8	9	126.0	115.6	96.0
Nov 27	@CHA	98–94	33-73	14-37	18-22	18	3	105.4	100.0	93.5
Nov 26	MIL	103–106	35-77	10-29	23-30	8	9	115.7	120.5	88.5
Nov 24	DAL	123–118	46-107	14-41	17-27	9	12	110.8	106.3	100.5
Nov 18	PHI	106–89	36-87	13-44	21-23	13	9	105.0	86.4	102.0
Nov 17	@IND	110–119	36-90	19-43	19-20	10	15	118.3	126.6	93.5
Nov 15	@IND	124–111	45-87	15-42	19-23	10	4	121.6	111.0	101.0
Nov 12	@DET	121–123	47-101	17-45	10-13	10	12	113.1	116.0	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner

MIA was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +5, actual +41 for MIA

807th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

18th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	MIA
Final score	93	134
Field goals	37–88 · 42.0%	52–90 · 57.8%
Three-pointers	5–22 · 22.7%	24–47 · 51.1%
Free throws	14–19 · 73.7%	6–9 · 66.7%
Rebounds	36	52
Assists	29	42
Turnovers	13	15
Steals	9	11
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+5	+41	+36
Total points	217	227	+10
LAL points	106	93	−13
MIA points	111	134	+23

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	26	26	20	21	–	93
MIA	34	35	36	29	–	134

Recent form before this game