The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MIN 0–0@MIA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 53 percent, MIA 47 percent. MIN Timberwolves 53% proj. 120 · final 131 MIA Heat · home 47% proj. 119 · final 106
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 120 131 +11
MIA Miami Heat (home) 119 106 −13

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MIAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.3 MINElo MIA 1518, MIN 1553; season margin MIA +2.3, MIN +2.2.
  • Recent form+0.3 MINLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIA scores 123.5 and allows 123.9; MIN scores 107.4 and allows 113.0.

Together: MIN by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +2 team. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.6, defensive rebounding +1.2.

MIA hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +2 team. Their offense shoots 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −4, defensive rebounding +2.0.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIA; left favors MIN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.3, Recent form −0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −0.2 for MIA. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.3 Recent form −0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −0.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −0.2. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMINMIAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15531518 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +36 −0.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.2+2.3 −0.1
Games played this season 00 −1.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.4123.5 +0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.0123.9 −1.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 55 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIA ptsMIN ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)123.9+1.02+2.56−1.54
Games played (away)0.0+0.29+1.50−1.22
Elo gap incl. home court35.6−0.79+0.10−0.89
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.76−0.09+0.85
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.29+0.46−0.75
Combined pace, last 10101.2+3.14+2.40+0.74
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)123.5+0.81+0.24+0.57
Season scoring margin (away)2.2−0.23+0.09−0.33
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.0−0.38−0.08−0.30
Games played (home)0.0+0.53+0.81−0.28
Rest days (home)5.0+0.13−0.11+0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.4−0.51−0.73+0.22
Rest days (away)5.0−0.38−0.16−0.22
Elo rating (home)1518.3−0.00−0.21+0.20
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.15−0.05+0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.20+0.04+0.16
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Elo rating (away)1552.7+0.05+0.05+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1553MIA15180.7 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1553

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. No games played yet this season.

MIA1518

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginMIN+2.2MIA+2.31.6 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+2.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.2) = +2.2

MIA+2.3

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.3) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10MIN107.4MIA123.50.8 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN107.4scored, −7.2 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.7%54.5%−8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210−0.2
Everything else−0.1

MIA123.5scored, +8.9 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.5%+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.210−0.0
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.0MIA123.91.8 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN113.0allowed, −1.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2670.210−1.6
Everything else+1.0

MIA123.9allowed, +9.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.2%12.2%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%26.1%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210+0.8
Everything else−2.3
Pace, last 10average 101.20.7 pts toward MIA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 100.5 and MIA 101.8 → average 101.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0MIA0.00.1 pts toward MIA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIN5 daysMIA5 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN5days

Last played May 15 against SAS (159 days, capped at 5).

MIA5days

Last played Apr 12 against ATL (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0
Apr 27@DEN113–12541-8112-2819-23259109.7122.5102.5
Apr 25DEN112–9639-899-2525-261216119.1101.194.5
Apr 23DEN113–9644-939-3416-211012111.995.0101.0

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0
Mar 30PHI119–10943-9311-4022-291116117.8109.0100.5
Mar 29@IND118–13546-9913-3713-18710114.6129.8103.5
Mar 27@CLE128–14940-9115-4633-381311118.5136.7108.5
Mar 25@CLE120–10342-8118-4518-22125123.7106.297.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
24 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −25 for MIA
59th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
19th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINMIA
Final score131106
Field goals46–98 · 46.9%39–81 · 48.1%
Three-pointers21–50 · 42.0%8–33 · 24.2%
Free throws18–29 · 62.1%20–26 · 76.9%
Rebounds5234
Assists2027
Turnovers1418
Steals117
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)−1−25−24
Total points239237−2
MIN points120131+11
MIA points119106−13

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139
May 12 at SAS L 97–126
May 10 vs SAS W 114–109
May 8 vs SAS L 108–115
May 6 at SAS L 95–133

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117
Apr 10 at WAS W 140–117
Apr 9 at TOR L 114–128
Apr 7 at TOR L 95–121
Apr 4 vs WAS W 152–136

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 6 2025-26 MIA at MIN MIA 94 – 122 MIN
Jan 3 2025-26 MIN at MIA MIN 125 – 115 MIA
Mar 7 2024-25 MIN at MIA MIN 106 – 104 MIA
Nov 10 2024-25 MIA at MIN MIA 95 – 94 MIN
Dec 18 2023-24 MIN at MIA MIN 112 – 108 MIA