2024-25 · Playoffs · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

Monday, April 28, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 1–3@MIA 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	111	138	+27
MIA Miami Heat (home)	105	83	−22

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1705	1480
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−155
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+10.0	−0.5
Games played this season	85	84
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	121.2	117.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.7	118.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	1.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1705MIA1480

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1705

Ended last season at 1523 → started this one at 1517
First 75 games: +183.4
Last 10 games: +3.9

WNYK124–105+6.5
W@SAS114–113+1.5
LSAC113–120−19.2
WCHI135–113+6.1
L@IND112–114−5.3
W@NYK108–102+6.4
LIND118–126−15.8
WMIA121–100+5.5
WMIA121–112+3.0
W@MIA124–87+15.2

MIA1480

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 74 games: −62.9
Last 10 games: +10.7

W@BOS124–103+40.6
LMEM108–110−5.8
LMIL115–121−8.6
WPHI117–105+3.3
L@CHI111–119−6.3
W@NOP153–104+21.3
LWAS118–119−10.1
L@CLE100–121−5.5
L@CLE112–121−3.0
LCLE87–124−15.2

Season scoring marginCLE+10.0MIA−0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+10.0

Scores 121.9, allows 112.0 over 85 games: +10.0 a game.

MIA−0.5

Scores 110.1, allows 110.6 over 84 games: −0.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE121.2MIA117.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

CLE121.2scored, +7.5 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.1%	54.4%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.9%	25.2%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.152	0.192	−1.2
Everything else			+0.3

MIA117.5scored, +3.8 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.4%	54.4%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.0%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	25.2%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.146	0.192	−1.3
Everything else			−1.3

Defensive rating, last 10CLE110.7MIA118.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

CLE110.7allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.4%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.0%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.2%	25.2%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.192	+1.1
Everything else			+1.3

MIA118.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.4%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.0%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	25.2%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.192	+0.4
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 96.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 96.8 and MIA 96.3 → average 96.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0MIA1.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-28 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

MIA1.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Terry Rozier	1.3	17.0	3

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-28 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Apr 26 against MIA.

MIA2days

Last played Apr 26 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 26	@MIA	124–87	46-86	15-40	17-20	9	13	136.3	94.6	91.5
Apr 23	MIA	121–112	39-82	22-45	21-23	8	6	128.7	117.9	94.5
Apr 20	MIA	121–100	45-88	18-43	13-16	7	14	137.5	114.9	87.5
Apr 13	IND	118–126	44-115	18-60	12-22	21	15	95.2	99.2	103.9
Apr 11	@NYK	108–102	38-77	11-31	21-30	15	13	114.9	109.7	93.5
Apr 10	@IND	112–114	43-98	17-37	9-13	11	7	110.9	115.2	100.0
Apr 8	CHI	135–113	51-100	25-50	8-13	12	16	132.4	108.7	103.0
Apr 6	SAC	113–120	46-88	10-38	11-19	16	13	116.5	125.0	96.5
Apr 4	@SAS	114–113	41-87	22-51	10-14	15	7	111.8	110.8	102.0
Apr 2	NYK	124–105	50-94	12-37	12-14	13	15	127.8	110.5	96.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 26	CLE	87–124	32-76	16-34	7-10	16	5	94.6	136.3	91.5
Apr 23	@CLE	112–121	42-81	16-45	12-16	13	9	117.9	128.7	94.5
Apr 20	@CLE	100–121	39-80	13-31	9-12	14	11	114.9	137.5	87.5
Apr 13	WAS	118–119	49-98	10-32	10-12	8	9	114.6	116.7	102.5
Apr 11	@NOP	153–104	58-104	20-45	17-22	9	16	143.0	98.1	106.5
Apr 9	@CHI	111–119	44-92	12-33	11-17	13	11	107.8	116.7	102.5
Apr 7	PHI	117–105	45-89	16-36	11-15	13	10	120.6	108.2	97.0
Apr 5	MIL	115–121	43-102	15-46	14-16	10	11	108.5	114.2	96.0
Apr 3	MEM	108–110	39-95	14-33	16-19	11	15	109.1	112.2	98.5
Apr 2	@BOS	124–103	43-83	14-30	24-27	4	11	144.2	119.8	86.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner

CLE was the forecast favorite

49 pts

margin miss

forecast −6, actual −55 for MIA

773rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

1st

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	MIA
Final score	138	83
Field goals	47–86 · 54.7%	32–89 · 36.0%
Three-pointers	22–47 · 46.8%	10–49 · 20.4%
Free throws	22–25 · 88.0%	9–15 · 60.0%
Rebounds	51	45
Assists	26	17
Turnovers	11	19
Steals	15	4
Blocks	6	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	−6	−55	−49
Total points	216	221	+5
CLE points	111	138	+27
MIA points	105	83	−22

Recent form before this game