2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat

Saturday, January 4, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 2–2@MIA 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
UTA Utah Jazz	110	136	+26
MIA Miami Heat (home)	116	100	−16

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	UTA	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1363	1534
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+241
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.0	+1.6
Games played this season	32	31
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.3	110.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.9	110.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	6.0	21.6
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1363MIA1534

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1363

Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
First 22 games: −14.3
Last 10 games: −20.0

L@SAC97–141−11.4
LPHX126–134−6.5
L@LAC107–144−9.6
W@DET126–119+12.3
W@BKN105–94+16.2
L@CLE113–124−2.4
L@POR120–122−4.5
LPHI111–114−5.3
LDEN121–132−6.2
L@NYK103–119−2.6

MIA1534

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 21 games: +19.9
Last 10 games: −17.6

WTOR114–104+3.3
L@DET124–125−5.4
LOKC97–104−5.9
L@ORL114–121−6.1
WBKN110–95+5.4
W@ORL89–88+5.5
L@ATL110–120−9.8
W@HOU104–100+9.7
WNOP119–108+2.9
LIND115–128−17.2

Season scoring marginUTA−9.0MIA+1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−9.0

Scores 110.7, allows 119.8 over 32 games: −9.0 a game.

MIA+1.6

Scores 111.2, allows 109.6 over 31 games: +1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10UTA112.3MIA110.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

UTA112.3scored, −0.3 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.2%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.1%	12.5%	−5.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	24.6%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.195	+0.4
Everything else			+0.4

MIA110.7scored, −1.9 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.2%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.5%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.6%	24.6%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.195	+1.3
Everything else			−1.4

Defensive rating, last 10UTA123.9MIA110.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

UTA123.9allowed, +11.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.4%	54.2%	−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.3%	12.5%	−4.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	24.6%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.195	+0.2
Everything else			−1.2

MIA110.7allowed, −1.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.2%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.5%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.7%	24.6%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.195	+0.6
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 100.6 and MIA 97.9 → average 99.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingUTA6.0MIA21.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA6.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Cody Williams	6.0	21.8	3

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-04 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

MIA21.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jimmy Butler III	12.8	26.5	5
Dru Smith	8.8	25.6	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestUTA3 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA3days

Last played Jan 1 against NYK.

MIA2days

Last played Jan 2 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 1	@NYK	103–119	39-96	13-43	12-15	16	14	102.0	117.8	101.0
Dec 30	DEN	121–132	44-86	13-38	20-22	16	7	121.0	130.7	100.5
Dec 28	PHI	111–114	43-89	12-36	13-15	21	14	113.3	116.3	98.0
Dec 26	@POR	120–122	41-86	21-42	17-25	13	11	121.2	123.2	99.0
Dec 23	@CLE	113–124	38-92	19-44	18-26	16	16	115.3	125.3	98.5
Dec 21	@BKN	105–94	41-86	14-41	9-17	18	9	104.0	93.1	101.0
Dec 19	@DET	126–119	39-83	20-40	28-31	27	14	113.5	109.2	110.0
Dec 16	@LAC	107–144	36-80	13-39	22-30	22	10	101.9	139.8	104.0
Dec 13	PHX	126–134	43-77	22-39	18-22	15	6	132.6	141.1	95.0
Dec 8	@SAC	97–141	31-80	15-42	20-21	20	9	98.0	142.4	99.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 2	IND	115–128	43-75	11-26	18-21	14	5	118.6	133.3	96.5
Jan 1	NOP	119–108	44-83	14-34	17-21	10	5	126.6	113.7	94.5
Dec 29	@HOU	104–100	37-84	10-33	20-28	14	15	108.3	104.2	96.0
Dec 28	@ATL	110–120	40-90	13-41	17-18	8	8	110.0	122.4	99.0
Dec 26	@ORL	89–88	31-76	15-30	12-14	20	6	92.7	90.7	96.5
Dec 23	BKN	110–95	36-73	17-41	21-24	15	4	115.8	101.1	94.5
Dec 21	@ORL	114–121	36-75	9-32	33-42	14	7	112.9	122.2	100.0
Dec 20	OKC	97–104	36-83	12-40	13-20	18	7	100.0	107.2	97.0
Dec 16	@DET	124–125	45-99	12-43	22-24	13	9	108.8	108.7	103.7
Dec 12	TOR	114–104	40-83	13-32	21-32	15	11	112.9	103.0	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

33%

pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

42 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −36 for MIA

115th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

8th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.10 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	UTA	MIA
Final score	136	100
Field goals	52–100 · 52.0%	35–80 · 43.8%
Three-pointers	19–46 · 41.3%	9–35 · 25.7%
Free throws	13–16 · 81.3%	21–30 · 70.0%
Rebounds	57	32
Assists	31	25
Turnovers	14	15
Steals	11	9
Blocks	4	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+6	−36	−42
Total points	226	236	+10
UTA points	110	136	+26
MIA points	116	100	−16

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
UTA	22	40	36	38	–	136
MIA	22	19	25	34	–	100

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 1	at NYK	L 103–119
Dec 30	vs DEN	L 121–132
Dec 28	vs PHI	L 111–114
Dec 26	at POR	L 120–122
Dec 23	at CLE	L 113–124

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 2	vs IND	L 115–128
Jan 1	vs NOP	W 119–108
Dec 29	at HOU	W 104–100
Dec 28	at ATL	L 110–120
Dec 26	at ORL	W 89–88

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 2 2023-24	UTA at MIA	UTA 120 – 126 MIA
Dec 30 2023-24	MIA at UTA	MIA 109 – 117 UTA
Mar 13 2022-23	UTA at MIA	UTA 115 – 119 MIA
Dec 31 2022-23	MIA at UTA	MIA 126 – 123 UTA
Nov 13 2021-22	MIA at UTA	MIA 111 – 105 UTA