2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat

Saturday, March 25, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

BKN 2–5@MIA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
BKN Brooklyn Nets	109	129	+20
MIA Miami Heat (home)	115	100	−15

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	BKN	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1491	1534
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+112
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.4	−0.4
Games played this season	73	74
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.2	119.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.5	117.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.6	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1491MIA1534

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1491

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
First 63 games: −16.1
Last 10 games: −10.8

WCHA102–86+6.5
W@HOU118–96+9.8
L@MIL113–118−2.8
W@MIN124–123+5.0
W@DEN122–120+7.3
L@OKC107–121−10.1
LSAC96–101−7.8
LDEN102–108−8.2
LCLE109–115−6.6
LCLE114–116−3.9

MIA1534

Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1610
First 64 games: −100.3
Last 10 games: +24.0

WATL117–109+7.1
WATL130–128+3.6
LCLE100–104−6.0
WCLE119–115+6.9
L@ORL114–126−12.0
WUTA119–115+3.8
WMEM138–119+16.6
L@CHI99–113−10.3
W@DET112–100+6.2
WNYK127–120+8.1

Season scoring marginBKN+0.4MIA−0.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN+0.4

Scores 113.3, allows 112.9 over 73 games: +0.4 a game.

MIA−0.4

Scores 109.3, allows 109.7 over 74 games: −0.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BKN112.2MIA119.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

BKN112.2scored, −1.9 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.6%	−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.0%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	23.8%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.232	0.213	+0.6
Everything else			+0.1

MIA119.3scored, +5.3 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.4%	54.6%	+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.0%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	23.8%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.294	0.213	+2.3
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10BKN111.5MIA117.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

BKN111.5allowed, −2.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.6%	+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.0%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	23.8%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.213	+0.6
Everything else			−0.3

MIA117.4allowed, +3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.6%	−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.213	+0.9
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 97.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 97.9 and MIA 97.2 → average 97.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingBKN7.6MIA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN7.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Seth Curry	7.6	15.9	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysMIA3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Mar 23 against CLE.

MIA3days

Last played Mar 22 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 23	CLE	114–116	39-81	12-34	24-27	15	9	117.5	119.6	97.0
Mar 21	CLE	109–115	41-92	9-33	18-23	16	19	114.7	121.1	95.0
Mar 19	DEN	102–108	38-82	12-35	14-16	11	9	112.1	117.4	91.5
Mar 16	SAC	96–101	33-80	14-39	16-23	6	3	104.3	107.4	93.0
Mar 14	@OKC	107–121	35-82	12-41	25-34	17	11	102.9	117.5	103.5
Mar 12	@DEN	122–120	42-84	17-44	21-24	8	4	129.8	126.3	94.5
Mar 10	@MIN	124–123	42-91	16-34	24-33	14	12	113.8	111.8	99.2
Mar 9	@MIL	113–118	41-104	14-36	17-17	13	15	106.6	111.3	106.0
Mar 7	@HOU	118–96	40-81	15-40	23-29	12	5	119.2	98.0	98.5
Mar 5	CHA	102–86	36-92	12-43	18-22	5	8	101.0	85.1	101.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 22	NYK	127–120	45-79	16-28	21-26	10	2	128.3	120.0	99.5
Mar 19	@DET	112–100	38-79	13-39	23-25	10	8	120.4	109.9	92.0
Mar 18	@CHI	99–113	35-82	10-37	19-24	13	14	110.0	127.0	89.5
Mar 15	MEM	138–119	49-82	13-29	27-33	13	8	135.3	117.8	101.5
Mar 13	UTA	119–115	37-79	14-34	31-36	13	9	119.0	113.9	100.5
Mar 11	@ORL	114–126	42-94	11-37	19-20	17	5	103.6	115.6	99.2
Mar 10	CLE	119–115	42-82	14-29	21-23	16	11	121.4	118.6	97.5
Mar 8	CLE	100–104	35-70	8-29	22-29	22	10	105.3	110.6	94.5
Mar 6	ATL	130–128	41-77	16-29	32-37	11	8	132.7	130.6	98.0
Mar 4	ATL	117–109	42-83	13-35	20-23	19	12	117.0	110.1	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

35%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

35 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −29 for MIA

135th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

17th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.06 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	BKN	MIA
Final score	129	100
Field goals	44–89 · 49.4%	38–80 · 47.5%
Three-pointers	18–40 · 45.0%	12–30 · 40.0%
Free throws	23–25 · 92.0%	12–14 · 85.7%
Rebounds	45	32
Assists	30	22
Turnovers	6	12
Steals	6	5
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+6	−29	−35
Total points	224	229	+5
BKN points	109	129	+20
MIA points	115	100	−15

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 23	vs CLE	L 114–116
Mar 21	vs CLE	L 109–115
Mar 19	vs DEN	L 102–108
Mar 16	vs SAC	L 96–101
Mar 14	at OKC	L 107–121

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 22	vs NYK	W 127–120
Mar 19	at DET	W 112–100
Mar 18	at CHI	L 99–113
Mar 15	vs MEM	W 138–119
Mar 13	vs UTA	W 119–115

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 15 2022-23	MIA at BKN	MIA 105 – 116 BKN
Jan 8 2022-23	BKN at MIA	BKN 102 – 101 MIA
Mar 26 2021-22	BKN at MIA	BKN 110 – 95 MIA
Mar 3 2021-22	MIA at BKN	MIA 113 – 107 BKN
Feb 12 2021-22	BKN at MIA	BKN 111 – 115 MIA