The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 19

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

Friday, May 19, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MIA 1–2@BOS 5–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 26 percent, BOS 74 percent. MIA Heat 26% proj. 104 · final 111 BOS Celtics · home 74% proj. 114 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 104 111 +7
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 114 105 −9

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMIABOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16101679
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +138
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.3+6.5
Games played this season 9496
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.2119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.1113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 95.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1610BOS1679

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1610

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1610
  2. First 84 games: −64.1
  3. Last 10 games: +64.7
  • WMIL121–99+15.5
  • WMIL119–114+5.5
  • W@MIL128–126+6.0
  • W@NYK108–101+12.0
  • L@NYK105–111−5.5
  • WNYK105–86+13.3
  • WNYK109–101+6.9
  • L@NYK103–112−7.8
  • WNYK96–92+4.8
  • W@BOS123–116+14.0

BOS1679

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 86 games: +25.1
  3. Last 10 games: +7.4
  • LATL117–119−9.4
  • W@ATL128–120+6.8
  • LPHI115–119−8.5
  • WPHI121–87+17.9
  • W@PHI114–102+13.0
  • L@PHI115–116−4.0
  • LPHI103–115−17.5
  • W@PHI95–86+11.5
  • WPHI112–88+11.6
  • LMIA116–123−14.0
Season scoring marginMIA+0.3BOS+6.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA+0.3

Scores 110.1, allows 109.7 over 94 games: +0.3 a game.

BOS+6.5

Scores 117.6, allows 111.1 over 96 games: +6.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIA115.2BOS119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

MIA115.2scored, +1.1 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.6%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.9%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%23.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210−0.1
Everything else+1.1

BOS119.4scored, +5.3 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.6%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.9%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.4%23.8%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210−0.3
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10MIA109.1BOS113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

MIA109.1allowed, −5.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.6%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.9%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%23.8%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.210−1.0
Everything else+1.0

BOS113.0allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.6%+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)9.5%11.9%−3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.8%23.8%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210+0.1
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 95.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 95.9 and BOS 94.3 → average 95.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-19 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-19 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIA2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA2days

Last played May 17 against BOS.

BOS2days

Last played May 17 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 17@BOS123–11646-8516-3115-19127126.8119.697.0
May 12NYK96–9233-827-2723-2577106.7104.589.0
May 10@NYK103–11237-8813-4316-191211110.8119.193.5
May 8NYK109–10140-8513-3916-221213117.2108.693.0
May 6NYK105–8635-907-3228-311313109.488.796.5
May 2@NYK105–11138-8517-4912-1768118.0122.090.0
Apr 30@NYK108–10136-8513-3923-29810113.7106.395.0
Apr 26@MIL128–12650-11017-4511-17119112.3110.5103.2
Apr 24MIL119–11443-8713-3220-25159113.3110.7104.0
Apr 22MIL121–9945-8416-3315-17138123.5101.098.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 17MIA116–12342-8110-2922-29159119.6126.897.0
May 14PHI112–8841-8715-3315-1877120.495.792.5
May 11@PHI95–8633-7815-3514-1617699.089.696.0
May 9PHI103–11533-8312-3825-3489108.4121.195.0
May 7@PHI115–11641-8717-4416-221013121.1122.186.0
May 5@PHI114–10238-8616-4522-23129118.8106.396.0
May 3PHI121–8743-9220-5115-1668127.491.695.0
May 1PHI115–11944-7510-2617-18168127.8129.391.0
Apr 27@ATL128–12047-9418-4216-17711130.6122.498.0
Apr 25ATL117–11949-9212-387-1399120.6125.396.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
26%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −6 for BOS
33rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
265th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIABOS
Final score111105
Field goals42–92 · 45.7%37–79 · 46.8%
Three-pointers9–26 · 34.6%10–35 · 28.6%
Free throws18–19 · 94.7%21–24 · 87.5%
Rebounds4535
Assists2322
Turnovers1015
Steals92
Blocks59

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+10−6−16
Total points218216−2
MIA points104111+7
BOS points114105−9

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
May 17 at BOS W 123–116
May 12 vs NYK W 96–92
May 10 at NYK L 103–112
May 8 vs NYK W 109–101
May 6 vs NYK W 105–86

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
May 17 vs MIA L 116–123
May 14 vs PHI W 112–88
May 11 at PHI W 95–86
May 9 vs PHI L 103–115
May 7 at PHI L 115–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 17 2022-23 MIA at BOS MIA 123 – 116 BOS
Jan 24 2022-23 BOS at MIA BOS 95 – 98 MIA
Dec 2 2022-23 MIA at BOS MIA 120 – 116 BOS
Nov 30 2022-23 MIA at BOS MIA 121 – 134 BOS
Oct 21 2022-23 BOS at MIA BOS 111 – 104 MIA