The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

DAL 1–2@MIA 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 39 percent, MIA 61 percent. DAL Mavericks 39% proj. 121 · final 113 MIA Heat · home 61% proj. 125 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 121 113 −8
MIA Miami Heat (home) 125 109 −16

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIA

  • Home court+2.1 MIAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.0 MIAElo MIA 1481, DAL 1395; season margin MIA −0.4, DAL −5.4.
  • Recent form+1.4 DALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIA scores 119.4 and allows 123.0; DAL scores 113.9 and allows 119.7.
  • Player availability+0.3 MIADAL without Naji Marshall (14 ppg).

Together: MIA by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIA is 0–3, losing by 16 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 125). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.2. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.8.

DAL is 1–2, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 118). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.6. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.4. Naji Marshall (14 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIA; left favors DAL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +3.0, Recent form −1.4, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +4.3 for MIA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +3.0 Recent form −1.4 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +4.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.3. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDALMIAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13951481 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +156 +1.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.4−0.4 +1.2
Games played this season 33 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.9119.4 +0.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.7123.0 −1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.7 −0.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.70.0 +0.3
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIA ptsDAL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)123.0+0.58+3.12−2.54
Elo gap incl. home court155.7+0.84−0.90+1.74
Season scoring margin (away)-5.4+0.82−0.66+1.48
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)119.7+1.53+0.26+1.27
Combined pace, last 10102.7+4.64+5.41−0.77
Games played (away)3.0+0.13+0.83−0.71
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.66−0.03+0.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)119.4+0.73+0.11+0.62
Elo rating (away)1395.1+0.33−0.15+0.48
Rotation points missing (away)13.7+0.10+0.45−0.35
Season scoring margin (home)-0.4−0.06+0.22−0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.03+0.23
Elo rating (home)1480.8−0.08−0.28+0.20
Games played (home)3.0+0.39+0.27+0.12
Rest days (home)2.0−0.03+0.01−0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.9−0.07−0.09+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1395MIA14812.4 pts toward MIA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1395

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 3 games: +7.2
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7

MIA1481

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 3 games: −37.5
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
Season scoring marginDAL−5.4MIA−0.40.6 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.4

Scores 112.3, allows 118.3 over 3 games: −6.0 a game.

15% this season (−6.0) + 85% last season (−5.3) = −5.4

MIA−0.4

Scores 109.0, allows 124.7 over 3 games: −15.7 a game.

15% this season (−15.7) + 85% last season (+2.3) = −0.4

Offensive rating, last 10DAL113.9MIA119.40.6 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL113.9scored, −0.7 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.5%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.210+0.2
Everything else+0.3

MIA119.4scored, +4.8 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210−0.1
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10DAL119.7MIA123.01.3 pts toward DAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DAL119.7allowed, +5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210−0.3
Everything else−0.1

MIA123.0allowed, +8.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.5%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%26.1%±0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.210+0.9
Everything else−2.2
Pace, last 10average 102.70.8 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 103.5 and MIA 101.9 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL13.7MIA0.00.3 pts toward MIA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL13.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Naji Marshall13.727.73

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysMIA2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 24 against SAS.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 24 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5
Mar 31@MIL99–12334-9610-3621-28141090.8111.8109.5

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0
Mar 30PHI119–10943-9311-4022-291116117.8109.0100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored MIA
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −4 for MIA
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALMIA
Final score113109
Field goals43–94 · 45.7%41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers14–46 · 30.4%13–41 · 31.7%
Free throws13–14 · 92.9%14–25 · 56.0%
Rebounds5142
Assists3126
Turnovers1614
Steals119
Blocks105

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)+4−4−8
Total points246222−24
DAL points121113−8
MIA points125109−16

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs SAS L 106–122
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128
Apr 10 at SAS L 120–139

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at CHA L 110–115
Oct 23 vs DET L 111–128
Oct 21 vs MIN L 106–131
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117
Apr 10 at WAS W 140–117

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 3 2025-26 MIA at DAL MIA 108 – 118 DAL
Nov 24 2025-26 DAL at MIA DAL 102 – 106 MIA
Feb 13 2024-25 MIA at DAL MIA 113 – 118 DAL
Nov 24 2024-25 DAL at MIA DAL 118 – 123 MIA
Apr 10 2023-24 DAL at MIA DAL 111 – 92 MIA