2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET
MIA 2–5@LAC 1–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 120 | 117 | −3 |
| LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) | 116 | 116 | ±0 |
Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 4.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 117 | 116 |
| Field goals | 43–100 · 43.0% | 43–90 · 47.8% |
| Three-pointers | 10–40 · 25.0% | 16–43 · 37.2% |
| Free throws | 21–26 · 80.8% | 14–20 · 70.0% |
| Rebounds | 50 | 47 |
| Assists | 35 | 30 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 18 |
| Steals | 10 | 7 |
| Blocks | 6 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Los Angeles Clippers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (LAC) | −4 | −1 | +3 |
| Total points | 236 | 233 | −3 |
| MIA points | 120 | 117 | −3 |
| LAC points | 116 | 116 | ±0 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Miami Heat
No players listed.
Los Angeles Clippers
- Out Bradley Beal
- Out Brandon Ingram · Right Heel Surgery
- Out Jordan Miller
- Out Yanic Konan Niederhäuser · Right Lisfranc Surgery
- Questionable Isaiah Jackson · Left Groin Soreness
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1 2025-26 | LAC at MIA | LAC 123 – 140 MIA |
| Nov 3 2025-26 | MIA at LAC | MIA 120 – 119 LAC |
| Mar 12 2024-25 | LAC at MIA | LAC 119 – 104 MIA |
| Jan 13 2024-25 | MIA at LAC | MIA 98 – 109 LAC |
| Feb 4 2023-24 | LAC at MIA | LAC 103 – 95 MIA |