The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MIA 2–4@LAL 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 41 percent, LAL 59 percent. MIA Heat 41% proj. 117 · final 117 LAL Lakers · home 59% proj. 120 · final 138
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 117 117 ±0
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 120 138 +18

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 LALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+0.7 LALElo LAL 1573, MIA 1497; season margin LAL +2.5, MIA +0.7.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 MIALAL 1 days of rest, MIA 3. LAL on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: LAL by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL is 5–2, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 115). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −6, getting to the line +2.1. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.2, defensive rebounding −2.0. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA is 2–4, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 122). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.0.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAL; left favors MIA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +0.7, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.2, Recent form +0.1, Player availability +0.0, giving +2.6 for LAL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +0.7 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Recent form +0.1 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin +2.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.6. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMIALALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14971573 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +146 +1.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.7+2.5 +0.1
Games played this season 67 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.9117.9 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.3118.2 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.0 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 31 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.3
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAL ptsMIA ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.2+0.35+1.95−1.60
Elo gap incl. home court146.2+0.50−0.98+1.47
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)118.3+1.09+0.08+1.01
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.70−0.13+0.83
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.36+0.44−0.80
Games played (away)6.0+0.21+0.78−0.57
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)117.9+0.52+0.02+0.50
Season scoring margin (home)2.5+0.23−0.13+0.36
Rest days (home)1.0−0.31+0.01−0.32
Games played (home)7.0−0.20+0.11−0.30
Season scoring margin (away)0.7−0.17+0.13−0.30
Back-to-back (home)1−0.22+0.05−0.26
Elo rating (home)1573.4+0.03−0.20+0.23
Combined pace, last 10101.0+2.80+2.60+0.20
Elo rating (away)1497.2−0.12+0.06−0.18
Home series wins0.0+0.18+0.03+0.16
Rest days (away)3.0+0.06−0.00+0.06
Series pressure0.0+0.01−0.00+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)116.9+0.15+0.15+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1497LAL15731.5 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1497

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 6 games: −21.1
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
  • LDAL109–113−10.3
  • W@ATL129–117+19.4
  • WIND145–125+7.3

LAL1573

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 7 games: +9.2
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2
  • W@LAC103–87+15.5
  • L@GSW95–112−17.4
  • WTOR131–125+5.4
Season scoring marginMIA+0.7LAL+2.50.8 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA+0.7

Scores 118.3, allows 121.5 over 6 games: −3.2 a game.

30% this season (−3.2) + 70% last season (+2.3) = +0.7

LAL+2.5

Scores 120.3, allows 115.0 over 7 games: +5.3 a game.

35% this season (+5.3) + 65% last season (+1.0) = +2.5

Offensive rating, last 10MIA116.9LAL117.90.5 pts toward LAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA116.9scored, +2.3 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.210−0.6
Everything else−0.3

LAL117.9scored, +3.3 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.5%+6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)16.3%12.2%−5.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2840.210+2.1
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10MIA118.3LAL118.20.6 pts toward MIA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA118.3allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.210+1.0
Everything else−0.6

LAL118.2allowed, +3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.6%26.1%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210−0.5
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 101.00.2 pts toward LAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 102.7 and LAL 99.2 → average 101.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0LAL0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIA3 daysLAL1 days0.5 pts toward MIA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA3days

Last played Oct 30 against IND.

LAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30IND145–12554-9318-4019-231615139.4119.0104.5
Oct 28@ATL129–11751-9611-2916-231412120.6109.3107.0
Oct 26DAL109–11341-9213-4114-251410105.8110.8102.5
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1TOR131–12543-8018-3727-32229123.6116.8106.5
Oct 30@GSW95–11233-8211-3918-242016102.2119.193.5
Oct 28@LAC103–8735-799-3124-331917105.189.797.5
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +21 for LAL
70th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
35th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIALAL
Final score117138
Field goals38–75 · 50.7%51–89 · 57.3%
Three-pointers16–41 · 39.0%19–43 · 44.2%
Free throws25–35 · 71.4%17–24 · 70.8%
Rebounds3441
Assists2839
Turnovers1916
Steals78
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+3+21+18
Total points237255+18
MIA points117117±0
LAL points120138+18

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs IND W 145–125
Oct 28 at ATL W 129–117
Oct 26 vs DAL L 109–113
Oct 24 at CHA L 110–115
Oct 23 vs DET L 111–128

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs TOR W 131–125
Oct 30 at GSW L 95–112
Oct 28 at LAC W 103–87
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 19 2025-26 LAL at MIA LAL 134 – 126 MIA
Nov 2 2025-26 MIA at LAL MIA 120 – 130 LAL
Jan 15 2024-25 MIA at LAL MIA 108 – 117 LAL
Dec 4 2024-25 LAL at MIA LAL 93 – 134 MIA
Jan 3 2023-24 MIA at LAL MIA 110 – 96 LAL