2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Sunday, February 1, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET
CHI 1–1@MIA 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | 117 | 91 | −26 |
| MIA Miami Heat (home) | 122 | 134 | +12 |
Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHI | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1467 | 1503 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +106 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −1.9 | +1.3 |
| Games played this season | 49 | 50 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 118.7 | 114.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 114.0 | 114.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 103.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 45.4 | 26.6 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHI1467MIA1503
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHI1467
- Ended last season at 1537 → started this one at 1528
- First 39 games: −103.3
- Last 10 games: +42.6
- WUTA128–126+3.0
- L@BKN109–112−5.4
- WBKN124–102+10.8
- WLAC138–110+25.1
- W@MIN120–115+13.3
- WBOS114–111+7.8
- LLAL118–129−12.8
- L@IND110–113−6.0
- LMIA113–116−6.0
- W@MIA125–118+12.8
MIA1503
- Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
- First 40 games: +27.9
- Last 10 games: +3.7
- LBOS114–119−5.8
- WOKC122–120+8.0
- L@GSW112–135−9.8
- W@SAC130–117+11.0
- L@POR110–127−10.7
- W@UTA147–116+17.3
- W@PHX111–102+15.4
- LORL124–133−14.9
- W@CHI116–113+6.0
- LCHI118–125−12.8
Season scoring marginCHI−1.9MIA+1.3
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHI−1.9
Scores 117.8, allows 119.7 over 49 games: −1.9 a game.
MIA+1.3
Scores 119.7, allows 118.4 over 50 games: +1.3 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10CHI118.7MIA114.0
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
CHI118.7scored, +4.1 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.3% | 54.4% | +7.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.7% | 12.2% | +0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.166 | 0.211 | −1.3 | |
| Everything else | −2.8 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIA114.0scored, −0.5 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.4% | 54.4% | −4.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 12.2% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.222 | 0.211 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10CHI114.0MIA114.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
CHI114.0allowed, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.8% | 54.4% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.5% | 12.2% | −2.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.211 | +0.6 | |
| Everything else | +3.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIA114.7allowed, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.8% | 54.4% | −2.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | +0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.199 | 0.211 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | +1.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 103.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
CHI 101.3 and MIA 105.5 → average 103.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)
Rotation points missingCHI45.4MIA26.6
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHI45.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | 13.5 | 26.6 | 4 |
| Jalen Smith | 12.9 | 26.7 | 9 |
| Tre Jones | 11.0 | 26.6 | 5 |
| Kevin Huerter | 8.0 | 20.7 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
MIA26.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 19.8 | 30.1 | 9 |
| Nikola Jović | 6.8 | 16.4 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestCHI1 daysMIA1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHI1day, back-to-back
Last played Jan 31 against MIA.
MIA1day, back-to-back
Last played Jan 31 against CHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31 | @MIA | 125–118 | 46-88 | 20-40 | 13-18 | 23 | – | 109.6 | 103.5 | 114.0 |
| Jan 29 | MIA | 113–116 | 37-94 | 15-38 | 24-29 | 15 | – | 104.6 | 108.4 | 107.5 |
| Jan 28 | @IND | 110–113 | 42-88 | 12-30 | 14-18 | 11 | – | 113.4 | 115.3 | 97.5 |
| Jan 26 | LAL | 118–129 | 43-82 | 18-49 | 14-18 | 15 | – | 116.8 | 127.7 | 101.0 |
| Jan 24 | BOS | 114–111 | 43-85 | 21-45 | 7-8 | 15 | – | 123.9 | 120.7 | 92.0 |
| Jan 22 | @MIN | 120–115 | 38-86 | 17-39 | 27-33 | 11 | – | 114.3 | 110.6 | 104.5 |
| Jan 20 | LAC | 138–110 | 52-92 | 25-47 | 9-12 | 12 | – | 132.7 | 107.8 | 103.0 |
| Jan 18 | BKN | 124–102 | 49-94 | 20-46 | 6-9 | 7 | – | 134.8 | 109.7 | 92.5 |
| Jan 16 | @BKN | 109–112 | 41-86 | 11-35 | 16-20 | 7 | – | 110.1 | 114.3 | 98.5 |
| Jan 14 | UTA | 128–126 | 47-92 | 17-43 | 17-21 | 13 | – | 126.7 | 122.3 | 102.0 |
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31 | CHI | 118–125 | 41-95 | 13-47 | 23-31 | 19 | – | 103.5 | 109.6 | 114.0 |
| Jan 29 | @CHI | 116–113 | 42-93 | 12-36 | 20-24 | 13 | – | 108.4 | 104.6 | 107.5 |
| Jan 28 | ORL | 124–133 | 44-88 | 15-34 | 21-23 | 18 | – | 115.9 | 123.1 | 107.5 |
| Jan 25 | @PHX | 111–102 | 39-93 | 9-35 | 24-29 | 10 | – | 108.8 | 101.0 | 101.5 |
| Jan 24 | @UTA | 147–116 | 47-108 | 19-47 | 34-42 | 13 | – | 132.4 | 104.5 | 111.0 |
| Jan 22 | @POR | 110–127 | 43-94 | 9-45 | 15-19 | 15 | – | 105.8 | 123.3 | 103.5 |
| Jan 20 | @SAC | 130–117 | 47-98 | 21-42 | 15-24 | 10 | – | 122.6 | 111.4 | 105.5 |
| Jan 19 | @GSW | 112–135 | 39-99 | 13-45 | 21-24 | 19 | – | 104.7 | 126.2 | 107.0 |
| Jan 17 | OKC | 122–120 | 41-111 | 20-50 | 20-28 | 4 | – | 120.8 | 118.8 | 101.0 |
| Jan 15 | BOS | 114–119 | 39-87 | 15-42 | 21-27 | 10 | – | 117.5 | 124.0 | 96.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHI | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 91 | 134 |
| Field goals | 28–87 · 32.2% | 54–107 · 50.5% |
| Three-pointers | 6–41 · 14.6% | 14–38 · 36.8% |
| Free throws | 29–34 · 85.3% | 12–17 · 70.6% |
| Rebounds | 47 | 54 |
| Assists | 18 | 44 |
| Turnovers | 18 | 8 |
| Steals | 5 | 8 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Miami Heat
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIA) | +5 | +43 | +38 |
| Total points | 239 | 225 | −14 |
| CHI points | 117 | 91 | −26 |
| MIA points | 122 | 134 | +12 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31 2025-26 | CHI at MIA | CHI 125 – 118 MIA |
| Jan 29 2025-26 | MIA at CHI | MIA 116 – 113 CHI |
| Nov 21 2025-26 | MIA at CHI | MIA 143 – 107 CHI |
| Apr 9 2024-25 | MIA at CHI | MIA 111 – 119 CHI |
| Mar 8 2024-25 | CHI at MIA | CHI 114 – 109 MIA |