2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

Friday, January 19, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 0–2@MIA 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
ATL Atlanta Hawks	110	109	−1
MIA Miami Heat (home)	118	108	−10

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	ATL	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1435	1542
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+177
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.0	+0.7
Games played this season	40	41
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.2	108.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.6	111.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	24.8	14.9
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1435MIA1542

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1435

Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
First 30 games: −20.8
Last 10 games: −53.2

LSAC110–117−10.1
W@WAS130–126+4.9
WOKC141–138+7.8
L@IND116–150−15.1
L@ORL110–117−5.4
WPHI139–132+9.9
LIND108–126−15.4
LWAS99–127−39.5
WSAS109–99+4.7
WORL106–104+5.0

MIA1542

Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
First 31 games: +5.8
Last 10 games: −39.2

L@UTA109–117−12.3
L@LAC104–121−11.0
W@LAL110–96+13.8
L@PHX97–113−14.0
WHOU120–113+4.5
LOKC120–128−9.0
WORL99–96+3.4
WCHA104–87+2.9
W@BKN96–95+3.3
L@TOR97–121−20.8

Season scoring marginATL−2.0MIA+0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−2.0

Scores 121.0, allows 123.0 over 40 games: −2.0 a game.

MIA+0.7

Scores 111.5, allows 110.9 over 41 games: +0.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ATL111.2MIA108.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

ATL111.2scored, −3.9 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.7%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.6%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.3%	24.5%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.246	0.205	+1.2
Everything else			−1.2

MIA108.0scored, −7.2 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.7%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.6%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	24.5%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.205	+0.7
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10ATL117.6MIA111.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

ATL117.6allowed, +2.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.4%	54.7%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.6%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	24.5%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.205	+1.1
Everything else			+1.0

MIA111.4allowed, −3.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.7%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	11.6%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.7%	24.5%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.205	+0.9
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 103.0 and MIA 96.8 → average 99.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingATL24.8MIA14.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL24.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Trae Young	24.8	36.8	10

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-19 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

MIA14.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	14.9	34.0	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-19 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Jan 17 against ORL.

MIA2days

Last played Jan 17 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 17	ORL	106–104	39-76	8-25	20-22	23	10	110.4	107.2	96.5
Jan 15	SAS	109–99	40-93	13-38	16-21	16	13	100.0	90.0	109.5
Jan 13	WAS	99–127	32-93	11-40	24-33	14	16	95.2	122.1	104.0
Jan 12	IND	108–126	40-89	11-30	17-23	14	11	108.0	126.0	100.0
Jan 10	PHI	139–132	48-102	12-34	31-42	12	14	124.1	117.9	101.4
Jan 7	@ORL	110–117	42-91	9-30	17-29	12	8	103.8	109.3	96.5
Jan 5	@IND	116–150	40-93	10-42	26-30	14	13	108.4	141.5	106.5
Jan 3	OKC	141–138	48-95	14-39	31-33	11	15	131.8	129.0	107.0
Dec 31	@WAS	130–126	47-95	12-32	24-37	12	11	120.4	115.6	108.5
Dec 29	SAC	110–117	37-94	15-43	21-25	15	18	110.0	117.0	100.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 17	@TOR	97–121	41-90	6-28	9-12	14	12	103.2	130.1	93.5
Jan 15	@BKN	96–95	33-87	8-31	22-25	12	6	94.1	93.1	92.4
Jan 14	CHA	104–87	40-81	11-25	13-16	14	4	107.2	91.6	96.0
Jan 12	ORL	99–96	37-83	8-26	17-20	16	12	108.8	104.3	91.5
Jan 10	OKC	120–128	41-89	15-36	23-28	10	8	118.8	128.0	100.5
Jan 8	HOU	120–113	41-82	15-36	23-32	11	10	122.4	116.5	97.5
Jan 5	@PHX	97–113	34-83	10-37	19-22	15	10	103.2	118.9	94.5
Jan 3	@LAL	110–96	41-93	16-42	12-17	8	7	107.8	93.2	102.5
Jan 1	@LAC	104–121	35-83	11-34	23-29	13	12	108.3	126.0	96.0
Dec 30	@UTA	109–117	34-78	9-31	32-40	16	8	105.8	112.5	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

9 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −1 for MIA

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

634th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	ATL	MIA
Final score	109	108
Field goals	40–87 · 46.0%	38–82 · 46.3%
Three-pointers	15–35 · 42.9%	12–31 · 38.7%
Free throws	14–17 · 82.4%	20–22 · 90.9%
Rebounds	38	44
Assists	23	21
Turnovers	13	16
Steals	6	7
Blocks	2	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+8	−1	−9
Total points	228	217	−11
ATL points	110	109	−1
MIA points	118	108	−10

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
ATL	32	25	24	28	–	109
MIA	24	32	27	25	–	108

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 17	vs ORL	W 106–104
Jan 15	vs SAS	W 109–99
Jan 13	vs WAS	L 99–127
Jan 12	vs IND	L 108–126
Jan 10	vs PHI	W 139–132

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 17	at TOR	L 97–121
Jan 15	at BKN	W 96–95
Jan 14	vs CHA	W 104–87
Jan 12	vs ORL	W 99–96
Jan 10	vs OKC	L 120–128

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Dec 22 2023-24	ATL at MIA	ATL 113 – 122 MIA
Nov 11 2023-24	MIA at ATL	MIA 117 – 109 ATL
Mar 6 2022-23	ATL at MIA	ATL 128 – 130 MIA
Mar 4 2022-23	ATL at MIA	ATL 109 – 117 MIA
Jan 16 2022-23	MIA at ATL	MIA 113 – 121 ATL