The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIA 0–4@ATL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 39 percent, ATL 61 percent. MIA Heat 39% proj. 117 · final 129 ATL Hawks · home 61% proj. 121 · final 117
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 117 129 +12
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 121 117 −4

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

  • Home court+2.1 ATLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.7 ATLElo ATL 1568, MIA 1470; season margin ATL +2.7, MIA −0.7.
  • Recent form+0.5 MIALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ATL scores 109.2 and allows 116.3; MIA scores 118.2 and allows 123.2.

Together: ATL by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 2–2, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 112). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.4, defensive rebounding −1.3.

MIA is 0–4, losing by 13 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 122). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.0.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ATL; left favors MIA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +1.7, Recent form −0.5, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability −0.0, Rest and schedule ±0.0, giving +3.4 for ATL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +1.7 Recent form −0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability −0.0 Rest and schedule ±0.0 Projected margin +3.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.4. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMIAATLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14701568 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +167 +1.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.7+2.7 +0.5
Games played this season 44 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.2109.2 −0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.2116.3 −0.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8 −0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueATL ptsMIA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court167.1+0.86−0.88+1.73
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)116.3+0.27+1.65−1.38
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)123.2+1.46+0.10+1.35
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.38+0.49−0.87
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.70−0.15+0.85
Games played (away)4.0+0.26+1.09−0.83
Season scoring margin (home)2.7+0.28−0.14+0.41
Elo rating (home)1567.6+0.02−0.29+0.31
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.2−0.40−0.13−0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.22+0.03+0.19
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)118.2+0.12+0.29−0.18
Season scoring margin (away)-0.7+0.21+0.10+0.12
Elo rating (away)1470.5−0.11+0.00−0.11
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.02+0.01−0.03
Games played (home)4.0+0.13+0.10+0.03
Combined pace, last 10100.8+2.55+2.57−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1470ATL15681.9 pts toward ATL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1470

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 4 games: −47.8
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
  • LDAL109–113−10.3

ATL1568

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 4 games: +41.4
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
Season scoring marginMIA−0.7ATL+2.70.3 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA−0.7

Scores 109.0, allows 121.8 over 4 games: −12.8 a game.

20% this season (−12.8) + 80% last season (+2.3) = −0.7

ATL+2.7

Scores 121.0, allows 111.8 over 4 games: +9.3 a game.

20% this season (+9.3) + 80% last season (+1.1) = +2.7

Offensive rating, last 10MIA118.2ATL109.20.4 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA118.2scored, +3.6 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210−0.3
Everything else+0.4

ATL109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.5%−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10MIA123.2ATL116.3no effect on the margin

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA123.2allowed, +8.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.210+1.0
Everything else−2.1

ATL116.3allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2580.210−1.4
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.8no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 102.1 and ATL 99.4 → average 100.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0ATL0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIA2 daysATL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 26 against DAL.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 26 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26DAL109–11341-9213-4114-251410105.8110.8102.5
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5
Apr 18@NYK102–11338-8714-3712-19128103.0114.199.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −12 for ATL
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
38th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIAATL
Final score129117
Field goals51–96 · 53.1%46–96 · 47.9%
Three-pointers11–29 · 37.9%16–38 · 42.1%
Free throws16–23 · 69.6%9–14 · 64.3%
Rebounds5240
Assists3635
Turnovers1415
Steals96
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+4−12−16
Total points238246+8
MIA points117129+12
ATL points121117−4

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs DAL L 109–113
Oct 24 at CHA L 110–115
Oct 23 vs DET L 111–128
Oct 21 vs MIN L 106–131
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at HOU L 110–120
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81
Oct 21 at ORL W 132–125
Apr 30 vs NYK L 89–140

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 ATL at MIA ATL 117 – 143 MIA
Feb 20 2025-26 MIA at ATL MIA 128 – 97 ATL
Feb 3 2025-26 ATL at MIA ATL 127 – 115 MIA
Dec 26 2025-26 MIA at ATL MIA 126 – 111 ATL
Mar 27 2024-25 ATL at MIA ATL 112 – 122 MIA