The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 29

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat

Friday, March 29, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 4–4@MIA 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 32 percent, MIA 68 percent. POR Trail Blazers 32% proj. 101 · final 82 MIA Heat · home 68% proj. 108 · final 142
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 101 82 −19
MIA Miami Heat (home) 108 142 +34

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPORMIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13111530
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +289
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.3+0.4
Games played this season 7372
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.5107.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.4109.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 95.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 29.614.2
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1311MIA1530

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1311

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 63 games: −22.0
  3. Last 10 games: −28.6
  • LBOS99–121−3.6
  • WATL106–102+7.7
  • LNYK93–105−6.7
  • L@NOP107–126−2.9
  • L@CHI107–110−2.2
  • LLAC103–116−6.2
  • LLAC117–125−4.3
  • LDEN111–114−1.7
  • L@HOU92–110−4.2
  • L@ATL106–120−4.5

MIA1530

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
  2. First 62 games: −8.4
  3. Last 10 games: −37.2
  • L@OKC100–107−5.1
  • LWAS108–110−11.9
  • LDEN88–100−11.2
  • W@DET108–95+6.3
  • W@DET104–101+2.7
  • L@PHI91–98−9.3
  • W@CLE107–104+8.3
  • LNOP88–111−18.5
  • WCLE121–84+23.4
  • LGSW92–113−21.9
Season scoring marginPOR−8.3MIA+0.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−8.3

Scores 107.6, allows 115.8 over 73 games: −8.3 a game.

MIA+0.4

Scores 109.3, allows 108.9 over 72 games: +0.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR107.5MIA107.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

POR107.5scored, −7.3 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.8%−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%11.5%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%24.2%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.196−1.2
Everything else+0.4

MIA107.6scored, −7.2 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.8%−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)8.7%11.5%+4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%24.2%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1590.196−1.1
Everything else−1.9
Defensive rating, last 10POR118.4MIA109.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

POR118.4allowed, +3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.8%−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.5%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%24.2%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.196+0.1
Everything else−0.1

MIA109.2allowed, −5.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.8%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.5%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.2%24.2%+2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1490.196+1.3
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 95.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.0 and MIA 93.8 → average 95.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)

Rotation points missingPOR29.6MIA14.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR29.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anfernee Simons20.833.66
Toumani Camara8.829.210

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA14.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Duncan Robinson14.230.86

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysMIA3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Mar 27 against ATL.

MIA3days

Last played Mar 26 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 27@ATL106–12043-8514-316-10184107.1120.099.5
Mar 25@HOU92–11036-877-3313-1516792.9112.298.5
Mar 23DEN111–11443-9310-2815-171511113.3115.298.5
Mar 22LAC117–12545-9312-3315-251010119.4127.698.0
Mar 20LAC103–11639-8115-3410-15178106.2119.697.0
Mar 18@CHI107–11040-888-2819-251313110.3113.497.0
Mar 16@NOP107–12642-8412-3311-121910110.3128.697.5
Mar 14NYK93–10534-8411-3314-16171396.9109.496.0
Mar 13ATL106–10238-8210-3020-241812109.3105.297.0
Mar 11BOS99–12139-8710-2811-11119108.8133.091.0

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 26GSW92–11337-928-3310-1381098.9121.593.0
Mar 24CLE121–8443-8315-3820-2399128.788.494.5
Mar 22NOP88–11131-8613-4713-154698.9124.789.0
Mar 20@CLE107–10438-8313-3618-1977121.6115.689.0
Mar 18@PHI91–9835-8912-339-14151194.8102.196.0
Mar 17@DET104–10140-8912-3512-16911109.5107.494.5
Mar 15@DET108–9543-917-3415-2189110.296.998.0
Mar 13DEN88–10034-805-2115-188896.7112.490.0
Mar 10WAS108–11043-9510-3312-181316110.2111.198.5
Mar 8@OKC100–10738-8211-2913-18107106.4111.595.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
68%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
MIA was the forecast favorite
53 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual +60 for MIA
1073rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
1st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.38 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORMIA
Final score82142
Field goals35–87 · 40.2%54–92 · 58.7%
Three-pointers5–30 · 16.7%21–39 · 53.8%
Free throws7–11 · 63.6%13–18 · 72.2%
Rebounds4344
Assists2041
Turnovers238
Steals417
Blocks24

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)+7+60+53
Total points209224+15
POR points10182−19
MIA points108142+34

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
POR19212319–82
MIA29453335–142

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Mar 27 at ATL L 106–120
Mar 25 at HOU L 92–110
Mar 23 vs DEN L 111–114
Mar 22 vs LAC L 117–125
Mar 20 vs LAC L 103–116

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Mar 26 vs GSW L 92–113
Mar 24 vs CLE W 121–84
Mar 22 vs NOP L 88–111
Mar 20 at CLE W 107–104
Mar 18 at PHI L 91–98

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 27 2023-24 MIA at POR MIA 106 – 96 POR
Nov 7 2022-23 POR at MIA POR 110 – 107 MIA
Oct 26 2022-23 MIA at POR MIA 119 – 98 POR
Jan 19 2021-22 POR at MIA POR 92 – 104 MIA
Jan 5 2021-22 MIA at POR MIA 115 – 109 POR