The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jun 9

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

Friday, June 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 0–3@MIA 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 30 percent, MIA 70 percent. DEN Nuggets 30% proj. 101 · final 108 MIA Heat · home 70% proj. 109 · final 95
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 101 108 +7
MIA Miami Heat (home) 109 95 −14

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDENMIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16591618
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +29
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.2+0.3
Games played this season 100103
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 122.0114.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.8113.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 93.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1659MIA1618

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1659

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 90 games: +66.7
  3. Last 10 games: +75.3
  • L@PHX124–129−5.4
  • WPHX118–102+11.0
  • W@PHX125–100+23.2
  • WLAL132–126+5.9
  • WLAL108–103+5.1
  • W@LAL119–108+13.1
  • W@LAL113–111+5.2
  • WMIA104–93+8.1
  • LMIA108–111−7.6
  • W@MIA109–94+16.7

MIA1618

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1610
  2. First 93 games: −13.4
  3. Last 10 games: +21.3
  • W@BOS123–116+14.0
  • W@BOS111–105+12.0
  • WBOS128–102+17.9
  • LBOS99–116−18.1
  • L@BOS97–110−7.6
  • LBOS103–104−4.2
  • W@BOS103–84+24.5
  • L@DEN93–104−8.1
  • W@DEN111–108+7.6
  • LDEN94–109−16.7
Season scoring marginDEN+4.2MIA+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+4.2

Scores 115.6, allows 111.4 over 100 games: +4.2 a game.

MIA+0.3

Scores 109.6, allows 109.3 over 103 games: +0.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DEN122.0MIA114.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

DEN122.0scored, +7.9 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%54.6%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%11.9%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%23.8%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210+0.5
Everything else−0.6

MIA114.6scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.6%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)9.9%11.9%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%23.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.210−1.2
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10DEN113.8MIA113.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

DEN113.8allowed, −0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.6%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.3%11.9%−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.8%23.8%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210−0.1
Everything else−0.4

MIA113.9allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.6%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%11.9%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%23.8%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 93.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 95.0 and MIA 92.8 → average 93.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0MIA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-06-09 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-06-09 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Jun 7 against MIA.

MIA2days

Last played Jun 7 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 7@MIA109–9441-805-1822-271313117.2102.292.5
Jun 4MIA108–11139-7511-2819-22139124.1129.186.5
Jun 1MIA104–9340-798-2716-20106111.8100.093.0
May 22@LAL113–11141-8512-3319-22811127.0123.389.5
May 20@LAL119–10844-8817-4114-1955122.7111.397.0
May 18LAL108–10339-8914-3816-181511105.9101.0102.0
May 16LAL132–12650-9115-3217-221115134.7129.997.5
May 11@PHX125–10044-828-2229-31107127.6101.098.5
May 9PHX118–10242-8513-2721-281010118.0103.099.5
May 7@PHX124–12950-897-2217-23810130.5137.294.5

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 7DEN94–10934-9211-3515-19410102.2117.292.5
Jun 4@DEN111–10838-7817-3518-20118129.1124.186.5
Jun 1@DEN93–10439-9613-392-2811100.0111.893.0
May 29@BOS103–8442-8614-285-6127110.891.392.5
May 27BOS103–10433-9314-3023-29517114.4115.690.0
May 25@BOS97–11040-789-238-101610111.5125.087.5
May 23BOS99–11634-788-3223-281512105.3122.194.5
May 21BOS128–10246-8119-3517-2191130.6103.098.5
May 19@BOS111–10542-929-2618-191011115.6109.496.0
May 17@BOS123–11646-8516-3115-19127126.8119.697.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner
the forecast favored MIA
21 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual −13 for MIA
69th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
136th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENMIA
Final score10895
Field goals39–79 · 49.4%35–78 · 44.9%
Three-pointers14–28 · 50.0%8–25 · 32.0%
Free throws16–21 · 76.2%17–20 · 85.0%
Rebounds3437
Assists2623
Turnovers614
Steals112
Blocks73

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)+8−13−21
Total points210203−7
DEN points101108+7
MIA points10995−14

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Jun 7 at MIA W 109–94
Jun 4 vs MIA L 108–111
Jun 1 vs MIA W 104–93
May 22 at LAL W 113–111
May 20 at LAL W 119–108

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Jun 7 vs DEN L 94–109
Jun 4 at DEN W 111–108
Jun 1 at DEN L 93–104
May 29 at BOS W 103–84
May 27 vs BOS L 103–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jun 7 2022-23 DEN at MIA DEN 109 – 94 MIA
Jun 4 2022-23 MIA at DEN MIA 111 – 108 DEN
Jun 1 2022-23 MIA at DEN MIA 93 – 104 DEN
Feb 13 2022-23 DEN at MIA DEN 112 – 108 MIA
Dec 30 2022-23 MIA at DEN MIA 119 – 124 DEN