The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DET 1–0@MIA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 56 percent, MIA 44 percent. DET Pistons 56% proj. 116 · final 128 MIA Heat · home 44% proj. 114 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 116 128 +12
MIA Miami Heat (home) 114 111 −3

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

  • Home court+2.1 MIAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.6 DETElo MIA 1497, DET 1616; season margin MIA +1.0, DET +7.2.
  • Recent form+1.1 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIA scores 121.1 and allows 125.8; DET scores 114.6 and allows 110.2.

Together: DET by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 1–0, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 113). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.4. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.9, forcing turnovers +1.6.

MIA is 0–1, losing by 25 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 131). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.8. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −5, defensive rebounding +1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIA; left favors DET.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −3.6, Recent form −1.1, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −2.0 for MIA. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −3.6 Recent form −1.1 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −2.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −2.0. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDETMIAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16161497 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −49 −2.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.2+1.0 −1.1
Games played this season 11 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.6121.1 +1.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.2125.8 −1.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.2 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 32 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIA ptsDET ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-49.3−0.97+1.70−2.67
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)110.2−1.67−0.15−1.51
Season scoring margin (away)7.2−0.80+0.22−1.02
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.86−0.05+0.90
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.23+0.47−0.70
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)121.1+0.89+0.21+0.69
Games played (home)1.0+0.69+0.11+0.58
Games played (away)1.0+0.25+0.75−0.50
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.6+0.13−0.17+0.30
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)125.8+2.01+2.31−0.30
Combined pace, last 1098.2−1.77−1.50−0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.35+0.11+0.24
Elo rating (away)1615.9+0.19+0.03+0.16
Elo rating (home)1496.6−0.08+0.02−0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.08±0.00+0.08
Season scoring margin (home)1.0−0.04+0.02−0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.05
Rest days (home)2.0−0.02+0.01−0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1616MIA14972.6 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1616

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 1 game: +6.7
  • WBOS121–113+6.7

MIA1497

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 1 game: −21.7
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
Season scoring marginDET+7.2MIA+1.01.0 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+7.2

Scores 121.0, allows 113.0 over 1 game: +8.0 a game.

5% this season (+8.0) + 95% last season (+7.2) = +7.2

MIA+1.0

Scores 106.0, allows 131.0 over 1 game: −25.0 a game.

5% this season (−25.0) + 95% last season (+2.3) = +1.0

Offensive rating, last 10DET114.6MIA121.11.0 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET114.6scored, −0.0 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.5%26.1%+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else−0.6

MIA121.1scored, +6.5 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.0%54.5%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210+0.0
Everything else+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10DET110.2MIA125.81.8 pts toward DET

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET110.2allowed, −4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.8%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2770.210−1.9
Everything else+1.2

MIA125.8allowed, +11.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.9%54.5%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.0%12.2%−4.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.210+1.0
Everything else−2.2
Pace, last 10average 98.20.3 pts toward DET

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 93.7 and MIA 102.7 → average 98.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET0.0MIA0.00.2 pts toward MIA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysMIA2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Oct 20 against BOS.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 21 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0
May 9@CLE109–11641-919-2518-221517114.7119.696.0
May 7CLE107–9739-8014-2815-201012118.9107.890.0
May 5CLE111–10137-8410-2627-351116116.8106.395.0
May 3ORL116–9441-8016-3318-221311126.1102.292.0
May 1@ORL93–7932-809-2720-261014105.789.888.0

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0
Mar 30PHI119–10943-9311-4022-291116117.8109.0100.5
Mar 29@IND118–13546-9913-3713-18710114.6129.8103.5
Mar 27@CLE128–14940-9115-4633-381311118.5136.7108.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
15 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual −17 for MIA
67th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
42nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETMIA
Final score128111
Field goals47–89 · 52.8%39–102 · 38.2%
Three-pointers18–38 · 47.4%15–51 · 29.4%
Free throws16–20 · 80.0%18–28 · 64.3%
Rebounds5349
Assists3424
Turnovers1912
Steals88
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)−2−17−15
Total points230239+9
DET points116128+12
MIA points114111−3

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 vs BOS W 121–113
May 17 vs CLE L 94–125
May 15 at CLE W 115–94
May 13 vs CLE L 113–117
May 11 at CLE L 103–112

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs MIN L 106–131
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117
Apr 10 at WAS W 140–117
Apr 9 at TOR L 114–128
Apr 7 at TOR L 95–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 8 2025-26 DET at MIA DET 110 – 121 MIA
Jan 1 2025-26 MIA at DET MIA 118 – 112 DET
Nov 29 2025-26 DET at MIA DET 138 – 135 MIA
Mar 19 2024-25 DET at MIA DET 116 – 113 MIA
Dec 16 2024-25 MIA at DET MIA 124 – 125 DET