The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 5

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MIA 3–5@GSW 5–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 48 percent, GSW 52 percent. MIA Heat 48% proj. 118 · final 100 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 52% proj. 119 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 118 100 −18
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 119 120 +1

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 52% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMIAGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14931497
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +74
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6+0.8
Games played this season 88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.5117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.8116.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.07.2
Rest days 13
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1493GSW1497

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1493

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 8 games: −25.2
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
  • LDAL109–113−10.3
  • W@ATL129–117+19.4
  • WIND145–125+7.3
  • L@LAL117–138−9.1
  • W@LAC117–116+5.0

GSW1497

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 8 games: +54.9
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
  • WLAL112–95+17.4
  • WLAC124–112+9.5
  • WPHX116–113+4.3
Season scoring marginMIA−0.6GSW+0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA−0.6

Scores 118.0, allows 122.9 over 8 games: −4.9 a game.

40% this season (−4.9) + 60% last season (+2.3) = −0.6

GSW+0.8

Scores 117.5, allows 114.6 over 8 games: +2.9 a game.

40% this season (+2.9) + 60% last season (−0.6) = +0.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIA117.5GSW117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.2).

MIA117.5scored, +5.3 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%53.3%+6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%13.3%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%27.2%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.226−0.3
Everything else−0.9

GSW117.2scored, +5.0 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%53.3%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%13.3%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%27.2%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2640.226+1.1
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MIA116.8GSW116.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.2).

MIA116.8allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%53.3%−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%13.3%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%27.2%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1670.226+1.7
Everything else−0.6

GSW116.0allowed, +3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%53.3%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%13.3%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%27.2%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.226−0.0
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 101.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 103.3 and GSW 99.7 → average 101.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0GSW7.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

GSW7.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Gui Santos7.220.16

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIA1 daysGSW3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 4 against LAC.

GSW3days

Last played Nov 2 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@LAC117–11643-10010-4021-261212105.4104.5100.5
Nov 2@LAL117–13838-7516-4125-35197114.7135.3102.0
Oct 30IND145–12554-9318-4019-231615139.4119.0104.5
Oct 28@ATL129–11751-9611-2916-231412120.6109.3107.0
Oct 26DAL109–11341-9213-4114-251410105.8110.8102.5
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 2PHX116–11336-8413-4231-371312117.2114.199.0
Nov 1LAC124–11246-8622-4910-141511122.8112.0100.5
Oct 30LAL112–9538-8922-4614-171515119.1102.293.5
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
52%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
GSW was the forecast favorite
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +20 for GSW
50th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
32nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.65 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIAGSW
Final score100120
Field goals35–86 · 40.7%42–80 · 52.5%
Three-pointers13–44 · 29.5%16–41 · 39.0%
Free throws17–23 · 73.9%20–25 · 80.0%
Rebounds3944
Assists2736
Turnovers1918
Steals811
Blocks59

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+1+20+19
Total points237220−17
MIA points118100−18
GSW points119120+1

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Miami Heat

No players listed.

Golden State Warriors

  • Out Gui Santos · Left Knee Tendinitis
  • Out Jimmy Butler III
  • Out Kristaps Porziņģis · Not With Team
  • Out Moses Moody · Left Patellar Tendon

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at LAC W 117–116
Nov 2 at LAL L 117–138
Oct 30 vs IND W 145–125
Oct 28 at ATL W 129–117
Oct 26 vs DAL L 109–113

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 2 vs PHX W 116–113
Nov 1 vs LAC W 124–112
Oct 30 vs LAL W 112–95
Oct 28 at MIN W 119–114
Oct 26 at DEN W 134–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 19 2025-26 MIA at GSW MIA 112 – 135 GSW
Nov 19 2025-26 GSW at MIA GSW 96 – 110 MIA
Mar 25 2024-25 GSW at MIA GSW 86 – 112 MIA
Jan 7 2024-25 MIA at GSW MIA 114 – 98 GSW
Mar 26 2023-24 GSW at MIA GSW 113 – 92 MIA