The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

IND 2–3@MIA 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 36 percent, MIA 64 percent. IND Pacers 36% proj. 117 · final 125 MIA Heat · home 64% proj. 122 · final 145
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 117 125 +8
MIA Miami Heat (home) 122 145 +23

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIA

  • Home court+2.1 MIAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.8 MIAElo MIA 1490, IND 1373; season margin MIA −0.2, IND −5.9.
  • Recent form+2.2 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIA scores 117.2 and allows 119.0; IND scores 109.1 and allows 111.1.
  • Player availability+1.3 MIAIND without Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg) and Ivica Zubac (9 ppg).

Together: MIA by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIA is 1–4, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 121). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.1, forcing turnovers −1.0.

IND is 2–3, about even on points (scoring 115, allowing 115). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 19% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.0, ball security −1.9. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.7, forcing turnovers −1.0. Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac are out (31 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIA; left favors IND.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +3.8, Recent form −2.2, Player availability +1.3, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving +5.2 for MIA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +3.8 Recent form −2.2 Player availability +1.3 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin +5.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +5.2. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputINDMIAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13731490 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +187 +2.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.9−0.2 +1.2
Games played this season 55 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.1117.2 +1.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.1119.0 −2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.1 −1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 30.80.0 +1.3
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIA ptsIND ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court186.5+1.47−1.33+2.80
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.0+0.17+2.65−2.48
Season scoring margin (away)-5.9+0.67−1.00+1.67
Combined pace, last 10103.1+4.58+5.80−1.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.1−0.08−1.11+1.03
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.67−0.05+0.72
Games played (away)5.0+0.13+0.77−0.64
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)117.2+0.57−0.03+0.60
Rotation points missing (away)30.8−0.14−0.73+0.59
Elo rating (away)1373.5+0.46−0.11+0.56
Season scoring margin (home)-0.2−0.33+0.16−0.49
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.04+0.23
Games played (home)5.0−0.12+0.06−0.18
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.1−0.30−0.18−0.12
Rest days (home)2.0−0.04+0.02−0.06
Elo rating (home)1489.9−0.05−0.11+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1373MIA14903.4 pts toward MIA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1373

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 5 games: −0.8
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
  • LPHI109–114−4.9

MIA1490

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 5 games: −28.4
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1
  • L@CHA110–115−3.7
  • LDAL109–113−10.3
  • W@ATL129–117+19.4
Season scoring marginIND−5.9MIA−0.20.4 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−5.9

Scores 115.0, allows 114.8 over 5 games: +0.2 a game.

25% this season (+0.2) + 75% last season (−8.0) = −5.9

MIA−0.2

Scores 113.0, allows 120.8 over 5 games: −7.8 a game.

25% this season (−7.8) + 75% last season (+2.3) = −0.2

Offensive rating, last 10IND109.1MIA117.21.6 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.5%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.7%26.1%−3.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.210+0.3
Everything else+1.4

MIA117.2scored, +2.6 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.210−0.4
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10IND111.1MIA119.02.6 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND111.1allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%+3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.9%26.1%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else+3.1

MIA119.0allowed, +4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.210+1.1
Everything else−1.4
Pace, last 10average 103.11.2 pts toward IND

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 103.2 and MIA 103.0 → average 103.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingIND30.8MIA0.01.3 pts toward MIA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND30.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tyrese Haliburton21.833.04
Ivica Zubac9.021.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysMIA2 days0.1 pts toward IND

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Oct 28 against PHI.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 28 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28PHI109–11436-879-3628-351513106.9110.7102.5
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@ATL129–11751-9611-2916-231412120.6109.3107.0
Oct 26DAL109–11341-9213-4114-251410105.8110.8102.5
Oct 24@CHA110–11537-8613-3523-25138107.8113.9101.5
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
MIA was the forecast favorite
15 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual +20 for MIA
85th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
42nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDMIA
Final score125145
Field goals44–91 · 48.4%54–93 · 58.1%
Three-pointers17–37 · 45.9%18–40 · 45.0%
Free throws20–27 · 74.1%19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds3748
Assists2838
Turnovers1316
Steals118
Blocks13

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)+5+20+15
Total points239270+31
IND points117125+8
MIA points122145+23

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs PHI L 109–114
Oct 26 at MIL L 102–110
Oct 25 at BKN W 136–109
Oct 23 vs DAL L 105–121
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at ATL W 129–117
Oct 26 vs DAL L 109–113
Oct 24 at CHA L 110–115
Oct 23 vs DET L 111–128
Oct 21 vs MIN L 106–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 29 2025-26 MIA at IND MIA 118 – 135 IND
Jan 10 2025-26 MIA at IND MIA 99 – 123 IND
Dec 27 2025-26 IND at MIA IND 116 – 142 MIA
Feb 28 2024-25 IND at MIA IND 120 – 125 MIA
Jan 2 2024-25 IND at MIA IND 128 – 115 MIA