2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards

Monday, December 1, 2025 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIL 0–1@WAS 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks	120	126	+6
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	110	129	+19

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIL	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1462	1248
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−144
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.2	−14.8
Games played this season	21	18
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.2	109.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.3	123.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	40.3
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1462WAS1248

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1462

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 11 games: +4.1
Last 10 games: −84.1

L@CHA100–111−18.1
WCHA147–134+3.6
LLAL95–119−21.4
L@CLE106–118−5.4
LPHI114–123−16.7
LDET116–129−10.9
LPOR103–115−14.0
L@MIA103–106−2.6
L@NYK109–118−4.1
WBKN116–99+5.5

WAS1248

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 8 games: −36.9
Last 10 games: −16.0

LCLE115–148−6.1
LDAL105–111−5.9
L@DET135–137−0.7
L@HOU112–135−2.1
LBKN106–129−20.1
L@MIN109–120−1.0
L@TOR110–140−3.5
L@CHI120–121−0.8
WATL132–113+31.6
L@IND86–119−7.4

Season scoring marginMIL−2.2WAS−14.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−2.2

Scores 115.5, allows 117.7 over 21 games: −2.2 a game.

WAS−14.8

Scores 112.5, allows 127.7 over 18 games: −15.2 a game.

90% this season (−15.2) + 10% last season (−12.1) = −14.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIL111.2WAS109.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIL111.2scored, −3.6 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.5%	+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.5%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.148	0.225	−2.2
Everything else			−5.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS109.5scored, −5.3 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.5%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.5%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	26.2%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.225	−1.1
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10MIL117.3WAS123.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIL117.3allowed, +2.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.5%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.5%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.249	0.225	−0.7
Everything else			+2.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS123.3allowed, +8.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.5%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.5%	−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	34.9%	26.2%	−3.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.232	0.225	−0.2
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 97.7 and WAS 102.1 → average 99.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0WAS40.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

WAS40.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Alex Sarr	19.1	31.5	8
Tre Johnson	11.4	22.8	7
Corey Kispert	9.8	21.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysWAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Nov 29 against BKN.

WAS3days

Last played Nov 28 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 29	BKN	116–99	44-84	16-39	12-17	12	–	123.4	106.5	93.5
Nov 28	@NYK	109–118	37-71	18-41	17-25	15	–	117.2	125.5	93.5
Nov 26	@MIA	103–106	40-95	14-42	9-14	13	11	103.0	103.9	101.0
Nov 24	POR	103–115	38-86	13-37	14-18	13	8	104.0	116.2	99.0
Nov 22	DET	116–129	43-84	20-43	10-12	15	6	116.0	130.3	99.5
Nov 20	PHI	114–123	45-92	14-36	10-13	14	3	104.6	113.9	98.3
Nov 17	@CLE	106–118	39-93	17-36	11-15	14	7	105.0	116.8	101.0
Nov 15	LAL	95–119	32-80	15-39	16-24	17	12	96.0	122.7	98.0
Nov 14	CHA	147–134	55-85	20-34	17-22	22	5	134.9	119.6	100.1
Nov 12	@CHA	100–111	40-88	12-30	8-13	9	10	107.5	118.1	93.5

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 28	@IND	86–119	33-84	7-32	13-20	17	11	85.1	119.0	100.5
Nov 25	ATL	132–113	48-84	19-38	17-26	12	6	128.2	109.7	103.0
Nov 22	@CHI	120–121	44-96	16-36	16-20	15	15	114.3	114.2	105.5
Nov 21	@TOR	110–140	39-86	12-41	20-24	17	7	105.8	133.3	104.5
Nov 19	@MIN	109–120	43-88	14-32	9-12	17	12	112.4	122.4	97.5
Nov 16	BKN	106–129	37-84	12-34	20-22	10	3	108.2	130.3	98.5
Nov 12	@HOU	112–135	42-92	15-38	13-19	12	12	112.0	136.4	99.5
Nov 10	@DET	135–137	50-95	15-38	20-26	20	11	116.4	119.1	104.6
Nov 8	DAL	105–111	37-89	11-35	20-23	18	12	101.9	107.8	103.0
Nov 7	CLE	115–148	41-91	15-41	18-23	20	16	110.6	141.0	104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored MIL

13 pts

margin miss

forecast −10, actual +3 for WAS

51st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

447th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.42 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIL	WAS
Final score	126	129
Field goals	46–84 · 54.8%	53–102 · 52.0%
Three-pointers	21–38 · 55.3%	13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws	13–21 · 61.9%	10–15 · 66.7%
Rebounds	35	41
Assists	29	29
Turnovers	16	10
Steals	5	9
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	−10	+3	+13
Total points	230	255	+25
MIL points	120	126	+6
WAS points	110	129	+19

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 29	vs BKN	W 116–99
Nov 28	at NYK	L 109–118
Nov 26	at MIA	L 103–106
Nov 24	vs POR	L 103–115
Nov 22	vs DET	L 116–129

Washington Wizards

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 28	at IND	L 86–119
Nov 25	vs ATL	W 132–113
Nov 22	at CHI	L 120–121
Nov 21	at TOR	L 110–140
Nov 19	at MIN	L 109–120

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Oct 22 2025-26	WAS at MIL	WAS 120 – 133 MIL
Feb 21 2024-25	MIL at WAS	MIL 104 – 101 WAS
Dec 21 2024-25	WAS at MIL	WAS 101 – 112 MIL
Nov 30 2024-25	WAS at MIL	WAS 114 – 124 MIL
Apr 2 2023-24	MIL at WAS	MIL 113 – 117 WAS