2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards

Friday, March 29, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 4–0@WAS 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DET Detroit Pistons	109	96	−13
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	116	87	−29

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DET	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1283	1290
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+77
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.2	−9.7
Games played this season	73	73
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	102.3	108.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.6	117.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	39.2	30.4
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1283WAS1290

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1283

Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
First 63 games: −37.1
Last 10 games: −7.0

WCHA114–97+12.0
WTOR113–104+10.2
LMIA95–108−6.3
LMIA101–104−2.7
L@BOS94–119−1.3
LIND103–122−7.5
LBOS102–129−2.9
LNOP101–114−3.6
L@NYK99–124−3.5
L@MIN91–106−1.4

WAS1290

Ended last season at 1436 → started this one at 1452
First 63 games: −172.3
Last 10 games: +10.0

W@MIA110–108+11.9
L@MEM97–109−6.9
L@HOU119–135−4.1
L@CHI98–127−6.5
LBOS104–130−2.6
LHOU114–137−9.1
WSAC109–102+16.5
WTOR112–109+5.4
W@CHI107–105+9.8
LBKN119–122−4.4

Season scoring marginDET−9.2WAS−9.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−9.2

Scores 110.8, allows 120.0 over 73 games: −9.2 a game.

WAS−9.7

Scores 113.7, allows 123.4 over 73 games: −9.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET102.3WAS108.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

DET102.3scored, −12.5 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.1%	54.8%	−8.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	11.5%	−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.0%	24.2%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.196	+0.6
Everything else			+0.6

WAS108.1scored, −6.7 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.8%	−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	11.5%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.3%	24.2%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.160	0.196	−1.0
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10DET114.6WAS117.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

DET114.6allowed, −0.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.8%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.6%	11.5%	−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	24.2%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.164	0.196	+0.9
Everything else			+3.2

WAS117.2allowed, +2.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.8%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	11.5%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.8%	24.2%	−3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.196	−0.8
Everything else			+1.4

Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 98.8 and WAS 99.9 → average 99.3 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)

Rotation points missingDET39.2WAS30.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET39.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Simone Fontecchio	16.5	36.1	4
Isaiah Stewart	10.8	31.3	5
Stanley Umude	6.4	20.0	5
Quentin Grimes	5.5	18.3	2

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-29 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

WAS30.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Bilal Coulibaly	11.8	33.2	4
Tyus Jones	9.7	34.4	3
Richaun Holmes	9.0	23.7	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-29 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Mar 27 against MIN.

WAS2days

Last played Mar 27 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 27	@MIN	91–106	31-81	9-32	20-25	12	4	98.9	116.5	91.5
Mar 25	@NYK	99–124	34-88	10-34	21-22	12	5	98.0	124.0	100.5
Mar 24	NOP	101–114	32-79	11-41	26-32	16	5	103.1	117.5	97.5
Mar 22	BOS	102–129	42-83	9-31	9-13	18	8	103.0	131.6	98.5
Mar 20	IND	103–122	37-90	5-23	24-30	15	12	99.0	119.6	103.0
Mar 18	@BOS	94–119	36-84	9-29	13-15	12	8	98.9	124.0	95.5
Mar 17	MIA	101–104	38-83	14-36	11-14	12	7	107.4	109.5	94.5
Mar 15	MIA	95–108	36-84	10-38	13-15	17	9	96.9	110.2	98.0
Mar 13	TOR	113–104	39-88	11-30	24-31	21	11	102.7	93.7	110.5
Mar 11	CHA	114–97	41-86	10-42	22-24	12	9	115.2	99.0	98.5

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 27	BKN	119–122	46-91	14-34	13-17	13	5	113.3	116.2	95.1
Mar 25	@CHI	107–105	39-97	14-49	15-18	13	5	108.1	105.0	99.5
Mar 23	TOR	112–109	44-92	11-35	13-19	17	7	112.0	106.9	101.0
Mar 21	SAC	109–102	41-81	10-25	17-23	19	3	110.1	103.0	99.0
Mar 19	HOU	114–137	42-98	15-39	15-20	10	17	116.3	137.0	99.0
Mar 17	BOS	104–130	41-89	10-34	12-14	16	10	104.0	132.7	99.0
Mar 16	@CHI	98–127	36-84	13-32	13-22	15	9	97.0	125.7	101.0
Mar 14	@HOU	119–135	46-93	12-38	15-19	13	7	110.2	123.9	108.5
Mar 12	@MEM	97–109	37-82	11-36	12-16	13	4	99.0	111.2	98.0
Mar 10	@MIA	110–108	39-81	16-39	16-22	15	6	111.1	110.2	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

32%

pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner

the forecast favored WAS

16 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual −9 for WAS

49th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

324th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.15 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DET	WAS
Final score	96	87
Field goals	37–89 · 41.6%	36–88 · 40.9%
Three-pointers	6–24 · 25.0%	9–33 · 27.3%
Free throws	16–20 · 80.0%	6–8 · 75.0%
Rebounds	47	47
Assists	19	22
Turnovers	13	18
Steals	9	2
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	+7	−9	−16
Total points	225	183	−42
DET points	109	96	−13
WAS points	116	87	−29

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DET	23	36	21	16	–	96
WAS	20	20	35	12	–	87

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 27	at MIN	L 91–106
Mar 25	at NYK	L 99–124
Mar 24	vs NOP	L 101–114
Mar 22	vs BOS	L 102–129
Mar 20	vs IND	L 103–122

Washington Wizards

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 27	vs BKN	L 119–122
Mar 25	at CHI	W 107–105
Mar 23	vs TOR	W 112–109
Mar 21	vs SAC	W 109–102
Mar 19	vs HOU	L 114–137

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 27 2023-24	WAS at DET	WAS 118 – 104 DET
Jan 15 2023-24	DET at WAS	DET 129 – 117 WAS
Nov 27 2023-24	WAS at DET	WAS 126 – 107 DET
Mar 14 2022-23	DET at WAS	DET 97 – 117 WAS
Mar 7 2022-23	WAS at DET	WAS 119 – 117 DET