2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards
Thursday, March 27, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
IND 0–1@WAS 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 123 | 162 | +39 |
| WAS Washington Wizards (home) | 112 | 109 | −3 |
Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1577 | 1272 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −235 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.3 | −11.3 |
| Games played this season | 70 | 73 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.7 | 107.4 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 111.2 | 117.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 101.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 31.8 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1577WAS1272
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1577
- Ended last season at 1603 → started this one at 1577
- First 60 games: −5.2
- Last 10 games: +4.8
- L@CHI103–121−20.8
- WMIL115–114+3.0
- W@PHI112–100+7.0
- L@MIL119–126−6.5
- W@MIN132–130+8.1
- WDAL135–131+2.6
- WBKN105–99+2.0
- WBKN108–103+1.8
- WMIN119–103+13.8
- LLAL119–120−6.2
WAS1272
- Ended last season at 1263 → started this one at 1322
- First 63 games: −50.8
- Last 10 games: +0.2
- L@TOR104–119−5.8
- L@DET103–123−2.6
- W@DET129–125+16.4
- W@DEN126–123+15.5
- L@POR97–112−4.3
- L@UTA112–128−9.7
- LORL105–120−9.6
- L@NYK103–122−2.9
- LTOR104–112−8.1
- W@PHI119–114+11.3
Season scoring marginIND+1.3WAS−11.3
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND+1.3
Scores 116.4, allows 115.1 over 70 games: +1.3 a game.
WAS−11.3
Scores 108.9, allows 120.1 over 73 games: −11.3 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND113.7WAS107.4
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND113.7scored, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.4% | +1.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.1% | +1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.4% | 25.2% | −1.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.197 | 0.193 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.4 |
WAS107.4scored, −6.2 vs league
| Factor | WAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.8% | 54.4% | −3.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.1% | −0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.6% | 25.2% | −1.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.159 | 0.193 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Defensive rating, last 10IND111.2WAS117.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND111.2allowed, −2.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.4% | −1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.2% | 12.1% | +1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 18.9% | 25.2% | +2.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.193 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
WAS117.0allowed, +3.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.3% | 54.4% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.1% | −3.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.6% | 25.2% | −2.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.182 | 0.193 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Pace, last 10average 101.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 101.0 and WAS 102.5 → average 101.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)
Rotation points missingIND0.0WAS31.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
WAS31.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | 10.8 | 18.9 | 5 |
| Kyshawn George | 10.8 | 25.7 | 8 |
| Corey Kispert | 10.2 | 22.8 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-27 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestIND1 daysWAS1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 26 against LAL.
WAS1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 26 against PHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | LAL | 119–120 | 44-87 | 15-36 | 16-19 | 9 | 7 | 125.3 | 125.0 | 95.5 |
| Mar 24 | MIN | 119–103 | 46-94 | 13-35 | 14-14 | 11 | 9 | 114.4 | 100.0 | 103.5 |
| Mar 22 | BKN | 108–103 | 40-84 | 11-35 | 17-21 | 13 | 6 | 106.9 | 101.0 | 101.5 |
| Mar 20 | BKN | 105–99 | 35-81 | 8-31 | 27-31 | 22 | 10 | 95.5 | 90.8 | 99.2 |
| Mar 19 | DAL | 135–131 | 45-82 | 16-35 | 29-37 | 11 | 6 | 127.4 | 123.6 | 106.0 |
| Mar 17 | @MIN | 132–130 | 48-97 | 17-37 | 19-23 | 20 | 14 | 116.8 | 113.0 | 103.2 |
| Mar 15 | @MIL | 119–126 | 46-96 | 17-43 | 10-13 | 11 | 10 | 119.0 | 124.8 | 100.5 |
| Mar 14 | @PHI | 112–100 | 44-89 | 10-35 | 14-18 | 10 | 12 | 119.1 | 106.4 | 94.0 |
| Mar 11 | MIL | 115–114 | 44-87 | 13-39 | 14-18 | 9 | 5 | 117.3 | 115.2 | 98.5 |
| Mar 10 | @CHI | 103–121 | 40-101 | 10-40 | 13-19 | 9 | 8 | 95.4 | 112.0 | 108.0 |
WAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | @PHI | 119–114 | 48-95 | 18-44 | 5-12 | 10 | 11 | 122.7 | 116.3 | 97.5 |
| Mar 24 | TOR | 104–112 | 35-87 | 11-37 | 23-34 | 17 | 7 | 97.2 | 104.7 | 107.0 |
| Mar 22 | @NYK | 103–122 | 39-88 | 11-36 | 14-19 | 20 | 7 | 98.1 | 116.2 | 105.0 |
| Mar 21 | ORL | 105–120 | 37-87 | 17-39 | 14-19 | 14 | 8 | 105.0 | 120.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 19 | @UTA | 112–128 | 43-93 | 12-45 | 14-18 | 13 | 9 | 110.9 | 128.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 17 | @POR | 97–112 | 38-92 | 12-40 | 9-12 | 16 | 9 | 97.0 | 113.1 | 99.5 |
| Mar 15 | @DEN | 126–123 | 46-95 | 19-45 | 15-17 | 17 | 9 | 121.2 | 116.0 | 105.0 |
| Mar 13 | @DET | 129–125 | 43-90 | 20-45 | 23-27 | 15 | 8 | 118.3 | 115.7 | 108.5 |
| Mar 11 | @DET | 103–123 | 37-92 | 13-39 | 16-20 | 13 | 9 | 100.0 | 119.4 | 103.0 |
| Mar 10 | @TOR | 104–119 | 38-105 | 16-55 | 12-15 | 8 | 13 | 104.0 | 120.2 | 99.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 162 | 109 |
| Field goals | 59–92 · 64.1% | 38–85 · 44.7% |
| Three-pointers | 27–47 · 57.4% | 11–30 · 36.7% |
| Free throws | 17–19 · 89.5% | 22–26 · 84.6% |
| Rebounds | 50 | 31 |
| Assists | 48 | 19 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 15 |
| Steals | 8 | 9 |
| Blocks | 2 | 2 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Washington Wizards
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (WAS) | −11 | −53 | −42 |
| Total points | 235 | 271 | +36 |
| IND points | 123 | 162 | +39 |
| WAS points | 112 | 109 | −3 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 2024-25 | IND at WAS | IND 134 – 130 WAS |
| Nov 24 2024-25 | WAS at IND | WAS 103 – 115 IND |
| Jan 10 2023-24 | WAS at IND | WAS 104 – 112 IND |
| Dec 15 2023-24 | IND at WAS | IND 123 – 137 WAS |
| Oct 25 2023-24 | WAS at IND | WAS 120 – 143 IND |